Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Scandinavian High.]

Happy Christmas everyone cold is is coming but will the snow follow.

[bluearmy]

Just for consistency, the new eps lose the hang back of high anomoly into France end week 2 as the scrussian low anomoly backs west to cover us and France - just. The Atlantic upper ridge retrogressing in tandem with the upper trough backing west a bit. a good end to the run and more importantly, a stop of the drift away from the establishment of low w euro anomolies. 

note the Canadian ens have lost the low euro anomolies this morning

the ECM/GEFS  AO and NAO both headed negative into the new year

[PersianPaladin]

The signal so far for this winter period has been for an unstable and oft-amplified upper jet, though where that ends up and whether we get that mythical north-african descending arm; waits to be seen....

At T90 lies the first disturbance point where the northern-jet starts to begin to break off and send a little energy southward. At that same time we have a very complicated and dynamic picture of emerging shortwaves, ridges and other features. Changeable certainly, even before T126. But here's hoping...

[Mark wheeler]

Merry Christmas to one and all . Thanks to all that contribute. Still learning loads from you guys . Not sure if I will ever completely understand but I sure understand a lot more now thanks to you .

what the hell as happened since last night . Has Mr Murr hacked in to the models for Christmas ?

[Summer Sun]

Certainly looking colder into early Jan the 00z Op has gone off on one too with its deep cold for London

[Daniel*]

I've not seen any real consistency out in crazy land but take T+240 (D10) between the 00z and 06z - virtually identical! Santa needs to go easy on the mulled wine. Merry Christmas. 

[Methuselah]

Merry Crimbo, all...

Not a bad GFS, IMO: some -11C uppers over England and Wales, but apart from that - and of course always assuming that they'll even materialise - no consistency at all regarding onwards evolution: Colder? Yes. Snowy? Perhaps. An easterly-type blizzard-infested breakdown? Even 'perhapser'...

[feb1991blizzard]

22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

100% an ice day...

 

lets hope we get close to it varifying...

Yes, we could do with the High further North though and lower 500mb heights though so more PPN on offer.

[claret047]

49 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Merry Xmas from me to one and all!

I've had my Xmas present from the models this morning espescially after a month without being able to watch this wonderful forum, because of holidays and a broken network adapter card.

Just completed the important bits of rebuilding my PC yesterday after a 'PC fixer' lost all my data.

I couldn't be happier this morning..

May I thank all contributors to the forum in general.

MIA

 

Good Morning MIA and other posters.

I concur with what you have posted. It is good to see you back on this site. I trust you and your family are well.

We know that things are on the up when Dave (TEITS) starts posting. The charts that I have viewed this morning seem to ooze potential, and long may it continue. We just need a bit more low pressure to the south of us and a more robust area of high pressure to the northwest of us to put the cream on the cake.

Merry Christmas to one and all and thanks to those that post on this site very informative information.

Kind Regards

Dave

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

23 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

I've not seen any real consistency out in crazy land but take T+240 (D10) between the 00z and 06z - virtually identical! Santa needs to go easy on the mulled wine. Merry Christmas. 

Must be due to the lack of data over Christmas????

I'll get my coat...I might need it!  

Merry Christmas one and all!  

[NorthYorksWeather]

37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

100% an ice day...

 

lets hope we get close to it varifying...

Speaking of ice days, Met Office predicting possibilty of one around here on Wednesday.

Wouldn't expect one myself looking at the GFS chart for the said time but goes to show what a bit of high pressure can do for temps.

[West is Best]

Merry Christmas everyone!

We're starting to see solid model consensus on the pattern change to cold with the HP building out west around T144. That's still plenty of time for pear-shaped developments and I think for most of us the concern will be how quickly the high topples, assuming it does. Recent history doesn't bode particularly well on that score, with topplers invariably winning out but let's remain cautiously optimistic. Sometimes these pattern changes presage  much bigger synoptic shifts than are currently shown. That's what most of us will be hoping.

[78/79]

Merry Christmas to  all, Just to say a big thank you to all the knowledgeable contributors on here. Like a lot of people  my understanding of the charts etc has been greatly  enhanced by you all . Her'es to a snowy blocked New Year. 

[Tim Bland]

15 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Speaking of ice days, Met Office predicting possibilty of one around here on Wednesday.

Wouldn't expect one myself looking at the GFS chart for the said time but goes to show what a bit of high pressure can do for temps.

You are comparing a chart showing temps at 1500m ASL to ground temps. Under high pressure the ground temps  can be a lot lower.  

Still feel first ridge around new year will be a non event, more confident of a decent cold blast and some snow second week of Jan.

Merry Christmas everyone 

Edited December 25, 2016 by Tim Bland

[Nick L]

24 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Speaking of ice days, Met Office predicting possibilty of one around here on Wednesday.

Wouldn't expect one myself looking at the GFS chart for the said time but goes to show what a bit of high pressure can do for temps.

As mentioned above, don't use 850 temps as an approximation for ground temps under high pressure in winter. You will often get inversions.

[weatherguy]

Merry Christmas everyone! 

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

As mentioned above, don't use 850 temps as an approximation for ground temps under high pressure in winter. You will often get inversions.

Yes that's very true Nick.

For me its just one of those charts where at first glance for me it doesn't scream potential ice day, but we all have different capabilities of reading charts.

However fingers crossed we can get some proper ice days come January. (under cold uppers)

Not much agreement as we head into the New Year, however the mean runs along at -2/3c so the potential for cold/snow is certainly increased.

[knocker]

Happy New Year from Sidney in Cornwall

[PLANET THANET]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Happy New Year from Sidney in Cornwall

I see you couldnt resist getting your red crayons out for cornwall ! anyway at least it stops sidneys nuts from freezing.

[Rollo]

Just now, knocker said:

Happy New Year from Sidney in Cornwall

Poor Sydney,how he will suffer in the coming cold ( wishful thinking)? Just wanted to thank you for all your input,a merry Christmas and a happy new year to you and all the posters on this fantastic site.

[bluearmy]

The last two gfs ops are consistent but outside the spread of the ecm ens and also the gefs 

clearly there is a clustering to extend the ridge northeast but these ops are likely not going to be the detailed way forward 

gefs keep the euro low anomolies late week 2 and raise to our north in general though the weak ones to our ne are in contrast with the eps

[Sky Full]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Happy New Year from Sidney in Cornwall

Crikey!  Looks like Turkey's going into the freezer.   We only just defrosted ours.....

[Essexgooner]

Happy Christmas to everyone !!!  Are the models shaping up to give us an extra Christmas Present in the New Year??? Fingers crossed

[chapmanslade]

1 hour ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Must be due to the lack of data over Christmas????

 

I think this one was put to bed years ago and certainly isn't the case these days

I urge a little caution getting too excited about individual runs a week or more away when there are plenty of other less extreme options available. Nevertheless a colder interlude does look on the cards.

[fromey]

Some light at the end of a very long tunnel even if it is temporary