Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Dennis]

Ec today - see how things will come last days this year....... now models have a cold start for Jan 2017

[andymusic]

happy xmas you lot - enjoy the day - lots of screaming potential for the 1st of Jan 2017 and onwards - we can all hope

[knocker]

The ecm not dissimilar to the GFS up to the weekend but then keeps the quite intense high pressure to the west so much depends on the precise orientation of this as to whether the UK is in the NW circulation of the anticyclone or more northerly streamlines as systems track SE around the high.All rather academic anyway

 

[SMU]

Morning -

I would like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas to you & you're families...

The GFS & ECM continue to try to build something at day 6 onwards with ridging up to Greenland & cold building thereafter although a very disapointing UKMO should be noted-

More Xmas runs needed - lets hope the new year brings some of that much needed snow for the UK..

S

 

[That ECM]

On 23/12/2016 at 06:36, That ECM said:

All three at t144 have the ridge starting to build out west. Let's hope we can see this at t72 then it may well be game on. At last output excitement. Personally wouldn't worry about what is shown after this time. 

Here are the T96 48 hours on. Looking out west and ECM being more consistent. Doesn't mean it's right though. Another 24 hours and we will be able to judge I think. 

Merry Christmas all. 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

this is  one xmas present  the  uk  going to love its looking  like mass snow fall over the new  year  if  the gfs  is  right    

 

MERRY  XMAS  ALL

[Polar Maritime]

Merry Christmas to all here in the MOD. Even them who never contribute but eagerly follow.. Have a wonderful day  

[IDO]

The GFS op has very little support synoptic wise or upper temp wise after D8. We have solid agreement from the GEFS till Jan 2 and then there remains much uncertainty; so nothing has really changed in the last two days outputs.

Still the main story is of a colder outlook for the UK as we enter 2017. How that manifests on the surface remains elusive. The 3 main models at D10:

Where the core high sits will make big differences to a more prolonged shot of colder weather.

The GEFS clustering does not rule out any of these though the GFS op is the most dramatic and out on its own "potential" wise at that range.

The Control at D10 misses the initial height rises, but the next wave of energy from the Atlantic builds the ridge and we end up with a second shot:

 D10 mean Alaska Ridge:

The upstream mean Alaskan Ridge is showing from D7 to D14 and the models are clearly reacting to this, so amplitude and placement of this is no doubt the driver for heights building in the local as energy is forced between the sympathetic US trough. If we can get a good synoptic for the UK in that 7 day window, maybe two shots, this could have a longer lead time for UK cold whilst the NH pattern reshuffles.

A Happy Christmas to all.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Merry Xmas from 252! 3 hours yet before I star wine, lager, sherry. turkey etc

GFS 252

 

[Godber 1]

Merry Christmas to all SNOW obsessed watchers and more importantly contributors, on what is an addictive web site this time of year.

[snowice]

Can't wait for this evenings runs they will Even look better withMerry xmass

Edited December 25, 2016 by snowice

[snowangel32]

Merry Christmas everyone and thank you for all the wonderfull and informative posts. Finally the models are showing some eye candy let's hope that it's not long before we are all buying carrots for a 6 foot snowman lol. 

[knocker]

The EPS 7-12 anomaly this morning has the HP centred about 600Km west of southern Ireland and thus, with the eastern European trough running south to south east Europe a quite strong upper NW flow. Temps around average but depending on precisely where the main surface features align as to whether the UK gets some transient colder shots as systems track around the HP and thus temporarily veering the surface wind northerly or North easterly. This scenario remains in the ext period with perhaps the upper flow backing somewhat and thus no obvious danger of any sustained cold periods. Hallelujah, Praise the Lord.

Edited December 25, 2016 by knocker

[PLANET THANET]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

The EPS 7-12 anomaly this morning has the HP centred about 600Km west of southern Ireland and thus, with the eastern European trough running south to south east Europe a quite strong upper NW flow. Temps around average but depending on precisely where the main surface features align as to whether the UK gets some transient colder shots as systems track around the HP and thus temporarily veering the surface wind northerly or North easterly. This scenario remains in the ext period with perhaps the upper flow backing somewhat and thus no obvious danger of any sustained cold periods. Hallelujah, Praise the Lord.

bah humbug you old scrooge !!!anyway happy christmas everyone.

Edited December 25, 2016 by PLANET THANET

[mcweather]

Well the gefs and ecm seem to still have plenty of Xmas spirit this morning.

merry Christmas to all my fellow snows searchers, yes even Knocker and Sid. I have a feeling Sid will want to wrap up his Christmas nuts come the new year

[TEITS]

Merry Christmas to you all.

Remember the Iceland SLP mean I posted a few days ago was at 1000mb. Now increased to 1025mb.

I still believe the intial N,ly will be relatively tame but this is just a starter before the main course. If the teleconnections/Strat does not support such a cold outlook then frankly I couldn't careless because these forecasting tools haven't exactly been reliable!!!

[Carl46Wrexham]

A bit off topic but...what we really need for this to come off is those two jinxers James Madden and Nathan Rao to keep their traps shut!

 

[chris55]

Merry Christmas everyone, hope you all have a great day

Both GFS and ECM offering some Christmas cheer this morning which is nice to see. Loving how GFS op manages to pull in that finger of cold!! Brrrrrr :0 

[Sky Full]

In addition to the promising pressure patterns being developed by the models in the new year outlook, it seems that the GFS also has the Jetstream finally trending to the south of the UK at the end of the run.  If this comes off I believe we can genuinely hope for much colder air to be available in January.  The actual shape of things will not be exactly like this in 10 days, of course, but at least the door to some much colder winter weather is being opened again.

I would also like add my best wishes to everyone for a very Cherry Mistmas (oops - too early for the sherry) and a Happy New Thread to all in 2017.  I am banking on the new thread being full of SNOW.   

[knocker]

18 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

I

 

I would also like add my best wishes to everyone for a very Cherry Mistmas (oops - too early for the sherry) and a Happy New Thread to all in 2017.  I am banking on the new thread being full of SNOW.   

Well you can BANK that it will be full of the usual.......now, now knocker remember the season

[Midlands Ice Age]

Merry Xmas from me to one and all!

I've had my Xmas present from the models this morning espescially after a month without being able to watch this wonderful forum, because of holidays and a broken network adapter card.

Just completed the important bits of rebuilding my PC yesterday after a 'PC fixer' lost all my data.

I couldn't be happier this morning..

May I thank all contributors to the forum in general.

MIA

 

[SMU]

Very nice consistency from the run to run 00z v 06z - at 192 its virtually the same with the cold air heading south & the deep cold heading south through scandi....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Very nice consistency from the run to run 00z v 06z - at 192 its virtually the same with the cold air heading south & the deep cold heading south through scandi....

Your profile pic sums up nicely how we are currently looking at these runs Steve!

 

Merry Xmas one and all......

 

BFTP

[Ali1977]

Beast by day 9 !!

[SMU]

100% an ice day...

 

lets hope we get close to it varifying...