Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[tight isobar]

Up she goes..........

Slightly better in-formation Canadian lobe..

Maybe a complete block via westwrn seaboard ridge latter frame! !!

[Purga]

So far so good with the GFS 06z run.

[Banbury]

Toppler on this run I think

[booferking]

Pv yet to spilit in this run not sure it will be as good as last run pretty sure it will topple.

Edited December 23, 2016 by booferking

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Pv yet to spilit in this run not sure if it will be as good as last run pretty sure it will topple.

The high toppled on the 00z run but it did so in a favourable way.

Anyone expecting the high to remain in situ for weeks on end will be disappointed 

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Toppler on this run I think

Not so sure, 2nd lot of WAA heading up

[tight isobar]

Western seaboard waa becomes foe- not friends on this run.

Keeping mass Canadian lobe further west.

Not to worried at present as to be expected with toying with evolution run to run...

The overall picture remains very optimistic. 

[bluearmy]

This solution closer to the gfsp

[Weathizard]

A greeny high isn't particularly likely with the lobe over eastern Canada, I'd be looking more for a Scandinavian high from the ridge to our west toppling with lows going under, pointless looking past day 8-10 though so you difficult to draw any conclusions.

 

At least there is some interest! 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

The high toppled on the 00z run but it did so in a favourable way.

Anyone expecting the high to remain in situ for weeks on end will be disappointed 

I never said the high was there to stay for weeks on end i am merley pointing out the difference in the pv lobe which leads to a shorter lived notherly blast??????

[SnOwFeSt]

High does topple in the end, but this is deep into FI by then. The building blocks and overall pattern looks very very interesting, and we now have some inter run and inter model consistency indicating that the vortex will become more shredded, with lots of heights getting pushed toward the pole. It will be a very interesting period of model watching over the next few days/ week.

[karlos1983]

That's a pretty awesome run in my book from the 06z.. most importantly, a continuation of the theme. I'm happy with that. Specifics I'm not interested in.....ATM

[SMU]

Morning All-

very limited time on the run up to xmas-

Some good news from higher up in the strat - the zonal peak is in 2/3 days @ 58M/S then we see a deceleration curve on a similar par with the increase curve over the last 3 weeks-

 

So the mean drops to average around Jan 1-3, so potential for more MLBs thereafter-

The purple runs depict the latest CFS which has dropped the SSW signal for Jan ( unsure if glosea has done the same )

So as it stands, as highlighted in the long post from the other day- A full greenland high is still unlikely - although an atlantic high / Scandi High combo will certainly be 'available' at least from the new year-

1 notable interest at 192-216 is the jet exiting the NE US splits NE & SE instead of the usual immediate toppler NE-

If we get enough energy going SE that will help keep the high elevated towards Scandi at day 10 -12 like the 00z, if theres more pumped NE expect the 06z to be the favourite...

Post that- continued focus on the strat charts to see where that deceleration bottoms out...

[snowbunting]

36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 6z shows a chance of a white christmas evening and night across scotland and the snow showers risk extends south across remaining northern parts through boxing day.

Yes we are expecting some more wintry weather.. allbeit a little slushy. 

[Paul_1978]

11 minutes ago, SnOwFeSt said:

High does topple in the end, but this is deep into FI by then. The building blocks and overall pattern looks very very interesting, and we now have some inter run and inter model consistency indicating that the vortex will become more shredded, with lots of heights getting pushed toward the pole. It will be a very interesting period of model watching over the next few days/ week.

Exactly - all looking very good until low res kicks in which is "just for fun" as they say - the all important low res is all that matter and it generally looks pretty good to me.

[Methuselah]

Looking good to me...Even a chance of an Orthodox white Christmas? But, anywho, the trend for HP setting-up shop away to our west seems to be growing by the day. Long may it continue!

[chris55]

FI produces another cold shot right at the end, overall a chilly second half of the run

[legritter]

Yes i,m very happy with todays model runs ,charts data etc .but i would need to see continuation this evening and tomorrow , certainly looking good for a colder start to 2017 , but its so frustrating knowing that things can change at short notice [like just one run ] lets see where we are come 7pm this evening ,and perhaps then i may open a Stella or Two , and of course todays Met off update ,which is composed using data we dont get to see past about 6 days ,cheers gang ,

[Purga]

42 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Toppler on this run I think

Maybe but it looks like 'toppling' towards Scandinvia before a nice 'rinse and repeat' - caveat... all in FI of course.

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

  

Let's see if the 06z tumble right to the bottom 

edit: but scrolling through the ens at 240, they don't look anywhere near as good. Much more Mid Atlantic Blocks  rather than further north. Even some west based which are not so nice at all. 

Edited December 23, 2016 by karlos1983

[SMU]

back to the ENS- this isnt about a greenland high as theres to much easterly vector in the WAA- it needs to be 100% Northwards into the pole for that-

its just how much elevation we actually get- the southern tip of greenland is the usual locale ...

S

Edited December 23, 2016 by ajpoolshark
removed o/t stuff

[chris55]

Big divergence from the first on the ens, confidence in any outcome low. Control goes mild with hardly a hint of a chill! Op on the cold side. Though we do have a cluster heading colder vs more scatter  on the milder options so cold slightly favoured.

Long way to go on this one.

 

Edited December 23, 2016 by chris55

[karlos1983]

12 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Big divergence from the first on the ens, confidence in any outcome low. Control goes mild with hardly a hint of a chill! Op on the cold side. Though we do have a cluster heading colder vs more scatter  on the milder options so cold slightly favoured.

Long way to go on this one.

 

Yep. Hence caution advised! I think the GFS is probably just getting a bit ahead of itself, going for a quicker solution than the ecm, so might slowly be falling back inline, and as ever deep fl is jff.

[Tim Bland]

I think it will take a couple of attempts to get a decent mid Atlantic ridge.  I reckon first one will topple after about 36 hrs. but hopefully low pressure remains in the Med.. This means second attempt is more fruitful and could last longer and result in an Easterly as it ridges to Scandi but lows go under.  This is best case scenario IMO risk is of course we get a 36hr window of opportunity where its dry and cold for 90% with sleet showers on the East coast... then we are back to square 1.. That's a standard UK winter scenario though!