Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[gottolovethisweather]

41 minutes ago, booferking said:

Im with MS on this one that high pressure is a right pain in the backside

Winter is about snow you can get frost in Autumn,spring even summer sometimes it not very hard to get frost, Winter is about snow

 

 

 

 

 

2

Errr, nope.

 

Winter is about a possible record-breakingly mild and pretty darn breezy Christmas day. Welcome to 2016. What of 2017? 

All the mildies might be screaming If only it could last and people wouldn't get their runny noses and frostbitten fingers and toes. I say be careful what they wish for, post-Boxing Day and onwards it might get quite nippy by day and night with stubborn fog returning instead of stubborn Jetstream drove depressions hurling themselves towards parts North and Northwest UK.  All to play for by then, but primarily mild, damp and gloomy at times and very windy beforehand. The snow will return, it simply feels like an age before it ever does so that when it does arrive, REVEL IN IT! Make snow angels, run around naked in it, take videos, photos, the lot, its getting rarer in the UK for sure. Who knows whether my mate or my niece's kids will ever witness deep snow cover away from the highest hills in future, one can hope they will in this climate of extremes of ours, for now, I might send them on a one-dayer to the Sahara lol. We have to laugh otherwise, we'd all cry. 

Edited December 21, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[swfc]

so moving into the early part of jan there maybe some mlb??? wow how far can this bar be lowered when frost causes orgasmic comments!!!.guess its better than rain but really looking at the ever present heighths to the south whats to like

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Chin up, enjoy christmas and keep an open mind about January, at least it looks colder and more settled next week with frosts returning and then it's all about where the high goes..hopefully west / northwest or even..to scandi

 

Aye, karl, there's little point in being overly pessimistic, at his stage in proceedings...Even though the current supply of drinking tubes might seem a wee bit sparse?

[Polar Maritime]

Just a reminder there is a moan/ramping thread open for discussion or general chit/chat. Let's continue with what the Model Outputs are  actually showing as per thread title.

Thanks please continue.

[gottolovethisweather]

10 minutes ago, swfc said:

so moving into the early part of jan there maybe some mlb??? wow how far can this bar be lowered when frost causes orgasmic comments!!!.guess its better than rain but really looking at the ever present heighths to the south whats to like

 

 

Orgasms aside, it is all weather-related discussion.  Any pictures or the orgasm didn't happen? Second thoughts I'm off to the watch the ECM unravel.

Edited December 21, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Ali1977]

ENS graph is t out yet but latest set is actually pretty good, plenty cold with the mean below 0 850s again later on.

[Sky Full]

Fascinating to see how all three main models draw chilly air right down into the eastern Mediterranean - even Cyprus will be cold - but we can expect air brought to us from the northern Sahara.

. . . 

I would love to count how many times this pattern will develop between June and September in 2017 - about twice would be average!

 

[sundog]

38 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

 

but what happens after that is open to doubt as some forecasts hints we may have high pressure to the West and a NW'ly flow for the UK so nothing is ever cut and dry.

More then likely the usual,the hp sinks and mild sw winds and rubbish are back.

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, Sky Full said:

Fascinating to see how all three main models draw chilly air right down into the eastern Mediterranean - even Cyprus will be cold - but we can expect air brought to us from the northern Sahara.

. . . 

I would love to count how many times this pattern will develop between June and September in 2017 - about twice would be average!

 

Do dislike when members compare winter set ups and say imagine what this would be like in summer except you can never compare as the charts will be totally different like you won't get such low heights over Greece/Cyprus in summer and you won't get such a strong high in summer either, anyways last summer was not too bad and seemed a more typical UK summer to me.

Back to the hear and now and wow... The ECM has that 2nd low no-where near us now and xmas day is looking just like a normal breezy type of day, still going to be mild though. Be interesting just how much ridging we shall see afterwards.

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye, karl, there's little point in being overly pessimistic, at this stage in proceedings...Even though the current supply of drinking tubes might seem a wee bit sparse?

Aye Ed, I'll drink to that

At least next week looks like becoming settled with frost and fog, as for January, I'm hoping for the best like every other coldie looking for the holy grail which is snowy synoptics!

[Summer Sun]

ECM shows a calmer Xmas day

But stormy again in the north on boxing day

Calmer Tuesday

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Fascinating to see how all three main models draw chilly air right down into the eastern Mediterranean - even Cyprus will be cold - but we can expect air brought to us from the northern Sahara.

. . . 

 

 

At least it won't be from Southern Sahara! lol

Nothing exciting in the models so far. Some surface cold for a time and that's about it.

[Scandinavian High.]

Looking much cooler as we enter January and some very colder cluster there where will the high end up at the moment it looks right over us then moves west I'm not saying a freeze is on the but looks cooler - colder as we enter January..

Edited December 21, 2016 by abbie123

[Frosty.]

Next week is looking good for a return of frost / fog with a large 1040 mb area of high pressure building in according to the Ecm 12z.

In the meantime, it looks disturbed with bouts of mild, wet and windy weather separated by occasional cold incursions with wintry showers, especially across the north.

Edited December 21, 2016 by Frosty.

[Sky Full]

19 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Do dislike when members compare winter set ups and say imagine what this would be like in summer except you can never compare as the charts will be totally different like you won't get such low heights over Greece/Cyprus in summer and you won't get such a strong high in summer either, anyways last summer was not too bad and seemed a more typical UK summer to me.

Back to the hear and now and wow... The ECM has that 2nd low no-where near us now and xmas day is looking just like a normal breezy type of day, still going to be mild though. Be interesting just how much ridging we shall see afterwards.

Apologies - just showing my ignorance.  However, it does seem to me that we are getting a lot of high pressure influence this winter which is usually what we are trying to find in the summer months?  

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Shameless cherry picking but.....

Come in number 4 your time is up!!

 

[Essan]

38 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Fascinating to see how all three main models draw chilly air right down into the eastern Mediterranean - even Cyprus will be cold - but we can expect air brought to us from the northern Sahara.

 

Good!   They just had snow in the Sahara! 

[West is Best]

Oooh. Hello hello hello what have we here then ...?

First true fodder for cold fans in a looooong time.

[West is Best]

1 minute ago, Essan said:

Good!   They just had snow in the Sahara! 

They often have snow there. There are ski resorts in the Atlas mountains.

In fact I saw snow there in October 2015.

The Band Aid line 'there won't be snow in Africa this Christmas' is complete twaddle.

[mulzy]

FI for sure, but the day 10 ECM has lots of potential.

If only we can get rid of those European heights.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

They often have snow there. There are ski resorts in the Atlas mountains.

In fact I saw snow there in October 2015.

The Band Aid line 'there won't be snow in Africa this Christmas' is complete twaddle.

but it should be changed to 'there won't be snow in Staffordshire; this Xmas time, that's the way I word it anyway

[West is Best]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

FI for sure, but the day 10 ECM has lots of potential.

If only we can get rid of those European heights.

Snap - posted the meteociel chart. I'm not worried about Euro blocking if that mid-Atlantic high builds. That way utopia lieth

[Northern Sky]

Just taking the latest ECM charts at face value, even though the 850's are high would the surface temps be cold? I know it depends on cloud cover but to me there seems to be a greater prospect for frost IMBY than the recent high pressure we have been enduring?

[Nick L]

7 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Just taking the latest ECM charts at face value, even though the 850's are high would the surface temps be cold? I know it depends on cloud cover but to me there seems to be a greater prospect for frost IMBY than the recent high pressure we have been enduring?

Generally low to mid single figures by day and pretty cold nights.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Generally low to mid single figures by day and pretty cold nights.

More so away from the north west..