Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[bradymk]

1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

Ecm also brings little belts of snow as well. A very nice meso feature on the t240 embedded in -6 850s giving snow to Scotland. 

I agree that the models could be better but dreadful they are not unless you have a high degree of imbyism. 

Yes many in Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland would probably be quite happy with the ECM. Those areas tend to do quite well from these setups as this is where the air is coldest and modified the least. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM firming up on what could be a disruptive festive period. For me storm force winds, heavy rain, snow and  generally cold are all there.  This is worth monitoring. It is a watch period and I have a few concerns with it.  

 

BFTP

[Banbury]

ECM doesn't bring much mild air to be fair

ECM would delivery something wintry for all those favoured spots

[MattH]

Just a few comments these more personal than professional...

1) Those looking for 'true' cold synoptics will be disappointed looking ahead so if you are those that want sub -10C 850's then I suggest you shut off the PC until after Christmas and hit the sherry. 

2) This change to a more zonal regime in this winter of 'wild cards' does not mean that's it until the end of February, a case of realising just how quickly the weather can change across the UK. The cold Nov was always unlikely to be followed by a cold Dec and this could have been one of the main oversights when it came to all the predictions of a cold and blocked Dec. What were the chances of a near or below average CET 2 months running, always unlikely these days and Nov really was a cold month for various parts of the UK at various stages and times.

3) Now this is a personal comment but after the last 2 weeks of being on 'the edge' of neither a blocked regime nor a zonal one the weather through the first half of Dec has been as boring and monotonous as I can remember. This change this coming week means CAA will lower temps, bring a far more seasonal feel and, for some bring a limited risk of wintry precip along with far more active weather too.

4) The problem with this winter so far really is the foundations that were in place in the first place, this not just from our NetWx's winter forecast but even from the likes of the UKMO and forecast models too. The 'build up' especially in this country rarely matches the reality to be honest, a good example being this winter so far, and whilst I can't be certain I don't believe the winter weather of 2009 and especially Dec 2010 were seen or suggested weeks in advance. Perhaps those that 'sneak up' are often ones that are more noteworthy.  

5) In summary the outlook through the second half of the month is one which most wouldn't want to see but on reflection compared with the first half is far more interesting and seasonal, let's not forget from a UK's point of view the broad weather patterns of next week is what we really should be having, on average. Still a lot of winter left and again those who think this major +AO/+NAO regime is locked in from now until the 28th Feb may well be mistaken. This signal for a more blocked pattern into Jan may well come about but does test the credibility of the EC Monthly now moving forward for example especially after its failure/flip for Dec. The rest of the winter really will now be one of wild cards and I do believe some 'short and sharp' changes will arrive in the coming weeks. 

Regards, Matt. 

[on the coast]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM firming up on what could be a disruptive festive period. For me storm force winds, heavy rain, snow and  generally cold are all there.  This is worth monitoring. It is a watch period and I have a few concerns with it.  

 

BFTP

Agree. Along way to go but this could be very nasty for some. Not whats wanted over Christmas.

[karlos1983]

Cheers Matt appreciate your honesty as ever. 

As far as the ECM 12z is concerned, I'm just gutted I would miss the worst of that storm, way too far south. Certainly looks an interesting period of weather for some.

 

Edited December 17, 2016 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is an upgrade in terms of cold zonality compared to earlier..there would be a risk of snow at times and not just on northern hills..quite a wintry stormy outlook being shown for the christmas period.I suspect northern hills would get a good dumping at times and even the south on hills could see an occasional wintry mix.

Edited December 17, 2016 by Frosty.

[Nick L]

Please, guys, we don't want discussion on whether it's right or wrong to wish for certain weather. This is not for this thread. This is a final warning, any further discussion and you may find yourselves taking a time out.

[Man With Beard]

24 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Interesting chance of a wintry blast here:

Yes - however with regards getting a signal for the days beyond that this might not be too helpful, since it contradicts the idea of heights rebuilding to the NE.

Note to Matt Hugo - love your analysis, never hide from the truth, you know, I really really hope the ECM monthly does get the signal right this time as it would be nice to have just a little bit of faith in these long term models!! But the ECM op feels the same as the winter so far - long term signals blocked, short-term signals not so much, result = stalemate.

Edited December 17, 2016 by Man With Beard

[knocker]

The ecm chart for Xmas day

[Iceaxecrampon]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z is an upgrade in terms of cold zonality compared to earlier..there would be a risk of snow at times and not just on northern hills..quite a wintry stormy outlook being shown for the christmas period.I suspect northern hills would get a good dumping at times and even the south on hills could see an occasional wintry mix.

Good optimistic charts posted Frosty - cant see what all the doom and gloom is to be honest  - we are moving on from last weeks murk into a more mobile and cooler pattern full of interest for most -  I have  just come in and the CH has gone up a notch which cant be bad..

[Daniel*]

ECM brings very damaging winds (Red warning undoubtedly) to swathes of Ireland & Scotland on Christmas Day a horrible time for such, any time would be bad, interestingly, there has been quite some support for quite some time for at least one vicious storm over festive period. I do see it as very plausible and potentially for there to be scope for southern counties to be impacted, with jet stream charged at UK - rather than the current over the top regime which is set to breakdown, with the HP infulence. I'm sure those folks at Exeter are 'monitoring' things closely, interesting from a weather enthusiast perspective mind. 

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm chart for Xmas day

How do those wind speed translate to ground level.

[Summer Sun]

Just now, frosty ground said:

How do those wind speed translate to ground level.

60 to 70mph for large areas of the UK 100mph or more in exposed areas

Still a week for this to downgrade which hopefully it will otherwise large areas could well be without power on Christmas day

[knocker]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

How do those wind speed translate to ground level.

There is no direct translation that I know of but the surface winds will be less but not  hugely over open sea or exposed coasts.

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

How do those wind speed translate to ground level.

The 10m wind gusts are showing as 90-100mph over much of Scotland. Pretty much the whole UK is in excess of 50-60mph.

[phil nw.]

Over the last few hours the team have had to remove a number of posts that added nothing to this thread ,most of them were either sniping or moaning.Quite honestly people don't want to come on here and read members falling out and arguing and cluttering the thread up with such stuff.

The moaning thread is here for ranting and bantering

It's now getting to the point that a small minority who disrespect our requests for on topic postings will be getting posting restrictions.

Please think before posting.If it's not model related then it belongs in other threads.If you have an issue with someone don't argue in here but pm them or report the post.

Let's keep this thread useful and informative for everyone's sake.

Thanks all.

 

[Frosty.]

Whilst the christmas period looks unsettled and potentially disruptive, the GEFS 12z mean shows a return to benign anticyclonic conditions towards new year and into early January with an increasing risk of frost and fog.

Edited December 17, 2016 by Frosty.

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The 10m wind gusts are showing as 90-100mph over much of Scotland. Pretty much the whole UK is in excess of 50-60mph.

Could be a repeat of Hurricane Bawbag. Hope it doesn't verify though.

[karlos1983]

My general rule is that storms shown 8-10 days out don't tend to verify as shown, no matter which model. What does seem likely though is a storm of some sort because it has been repeatedly modelled, just variations of strength and position. My money is on a storm bringing gusts in excess of 70mph for North western parts and more impactful for Scotland, but then is that really that uncommon given the time of year? 

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

My general rule is that storms shown 8-10 days out don't tend to verify as shown, no matter which model. What does seem likely though is a storm of some sort because it has been repeatedly modelled, just variations of strength and position. My money is on a storm bringing gusts in excess of 70mph for North western parts and more impactful for Scotland, but then is that really that uncommon given the time of year? 

No not uncommon at all. I think my wish list of more precise weather modelling would have storms at the top due to the disruption they cause. 

Edited December 17, 2016 by Seasonality

[legritter]

Evening all ,Barbara would be our next named storm ,when we had Angus back in November I certainly thought that we would be on our 4th storm by now , ok current possible storm forecast at 7 to 8 days away .if it goes as ecm is modeling it's very bad news for probably 60 percent of  UK , 200 miles further south my next door neibours trampoline goes airborne again ,we are in the lap of the gods . 

On tonights ecm high pressure is kept much further east ,I, v no clue to what lies past the new year ,any person have a clue ,drinks all round ,.

[Tonyinhampshire]

36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Is it my imagination but these models seem identical to 5 Weeks ago. ?

 

Whilst the christmas period looks unsettled and potentially disruptive, the GEFS 12z mean shows a return to benign anticyclonic conditions towards new year and into early January with an increasing risk of frost and fog.

 

[booferking]

Christmas day storm is at the extreme end of the ens as one would have thought..

 

[Summer Sun]

As above still windy but not to the extreme of the Op

Ens                                                               Op