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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

ECM block stronger than the gfs at 192. Colder uppers cover the UK and Europe by 216. Come on ECM!!! Come on Russian high!!!

ECE1-192.gif

gfseu-0-192 (1).png

ECM0-216 (3).gif

gfseu-1-216.png

ECM1-216 (2).gif

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The thing i notice on both the GFS and ECM 12z is the draining of deep purples away from Greenland... i think it was pointed out on the GFS earlier and it seems to appear on the ECM aswell toward the end of the run...

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
15 minutes ago, More Snow said:

The thing i notice on both the GFS and ECM 12z is the draining of deep purples away from Greenland... i think it was pointed out on the GFS earlier and it seems to appear on the ECM aswell toward the end of the run...

Yep,  noted in the GEFS 2 days ago... 

 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The Christmas weather looks a bit complicated with the block putting up more resistance and the uncertainties over any cold pooling over mainland Europe.

The reason that cold pooling could be important is if the models correct the pattern further west nearer the time. You can see by the ECM at T192 and T216hrs how any westwards corrections would see the trough disruption happening further west and then we get into the scenario of how much cold air there is to the east because the flow could bring some of that nw undercutting the precip.

The issue at the moment is that the coldest air is likely to be towards southern and se Europe and its how this gets drawn into more central Europe that's uncertain.

Just taking the outputs at face value it looks like some colder conditions in between low pressures before the pattern starts to retrogress further west, the start of that likely to bring some milder conditions for a time. After that prospects depend on whether we see high pressure pushed further nw as the PV weakens.

There is an opportunity at T192hrs on the ECM to develop a more interesting set up if the Russian high can extend a ridge over the top of the troughing towards Iceland, this could tilt the troughing negatively.

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Looking at the current output even given the rather downbeat atmosphere and quest for something better im struggling to see much of interest towards the new year?Granted something more seasonal is better and if any zonal spell gets it to there fair enough.Imo the outlook is just bog standard dec weather and nothing more atm.When things arnt what folk want then i guess anything is better than nothing in a search for something wintry.Hopefully come jan -feb things may change to something more seasonal.Btw can someone tell me when we last hada real true straight northerly blast??? thanks in advance

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Surprise Surprise

 

Would this preclude colder weather in the UK entirely, or just lower the chances?

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My uneducated view on the current setup is that when you have the polar vortex performing this much walkabout, then changes are afoot.

Screen Shot 2016-12-16 at 19.19.58.png 

Screen Shot 2016-12-16 at 19.20.13.png

 

My hunch is that we'll see some exciting runs over the next week or so. Mobility reboots the system, unlocking the cold.

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
11 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Would this preclude colder weather in the UK entirely, or just lower the chances?

If previous years are to go by USA cold spells are not good for the UK generally a stronger Jet with the bulk of any snow over higher ground should the Atlantic air be cold enough

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
10 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Goodness me, winds straight off the Greenland ice shelf later on the ECM. I think winters coming after all, maybe with a vengeance:yahoo:

Yes it's cold air heading in with sub 522 dam, cold enough for snow showers beyond day 10.

Some cold zonal before then too!:D

240_thick.png

240_mslp500.png

240_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Would this preclude colder weather in the UK entirely, or just lower the chances?

It depends where exactly the PV sets up, if it elongates sw/ne but far enough away then the correlation downstream is normally a pressure rise over Europe towards Scandi because the jet in that set up will run ne to the north and then its whether we get the favourable jet cut back towards the Low Countries. There have been many easterlies with that type of PV elongation but we haven't had much luck recently!

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The Christmas weather looks a bit complicated with the block putting up more resistance and the uncertainties over any cold pooling over mainland Europe.

The reason that cold pooling could be important is if the models correct the pattern further west nearer the time. You can see by the ECM at T192 and T216hrs how any westwards corrections would see the trough disruption happening further west and then we get into the scenario of how much cold air there is to the east because the flow could bring some of that nw undercutting the precip.

The issue at the moment is that the coldest air is likely to be towards southern and se Europe and its how this gets drawn into more central Europe that's uncertain.

Just taking the outputs at face value it looks like some colder conditions in between low pressures before the pattern starts to retrogress further west, the start of that likely to bring some milder conditions for a time. After that prospects depend on whether we see high pressure pushed further nw as the PV weakens.

There is an opportunity at T192hrs on the ECM to develop a more interesting set up if the Russian high can extend a ridge over the top of the troughing towards Iceland, this could tilt the troughing negatively.

 

Bonsoir Nick. Check out this cold pool. I know it is FI but if it verified those of us in central Europe and Scandi would be satisfied on boxing day.

ECM0-240 (4).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Ecm at least offers some scope for some snowfall across the hills of the north of Britain in and around Christmas.For those away from high ground its not great though..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
15 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Goodness me, winds straight off the Greenland ice shelf later on the ECM. I think winters coming after all, maybe with a vengeance:yahoo:

But those winds are largely irrelevant as the boxing day low scoops up heights to the south and realigns the jet axis more unfavourably.  A day 11 chart will more than likely show strong heights to the south as well as the blocking high to the East.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Bonsoir Nick. Check out this cold pool. I know it is FI but if it verified those of us in central Europe and Scandi would be satisfied on boxing day.

ECM0-240 (4).gif

Dobry wieczór!

Yes it looks cold for you there in Warsaw, theres still some uncertainty though with this cold pooling, but at this time of year these cold pools can be upgraded.

The set up might get more interesting if there was more trough disruption upstream.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Dobry wieczór!

Yes it looks cold for you there in Warsaw, theres still some uncertainty though with this cold pooling, but at this time of year these cold pools can be upgraded.

The set up might get more interesting if there was more trough disruption upstream.

I hope everyone gets in on the fun. I split my time between the UK and Poland so I get the best and worst of both worlds but back to Polska for xmas of course. -10 850hpas and precipitation for all :santa-emoji::drunk-emoji:

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

I just thought I would put a post up. I am not one for posting as I don't feel confident enough to post any charts so I thought I would ask for a bit of clarity first on the models, which I find very frustrating (from a coldie prospective). I have noticed that when there is a hint of cold weather in FI so to speak everyone gets pretty excited even my self but all I do is torcher my self feels like I have lost money or something, as do others am sure. What I would like to know is why do the models struggle to keep cold runs into reliable time frames without downgrading the 850s or anything else,but when it comes to mild mush they pick it up and keep it all the way out 384h to the reliable time frame. I mean this is like 3years on the trot maybe more I don't know, that North America gets all the snow and when they do it some how fire up the jet. I hope someone understands what I mean and would willing to share there thoughts. Sorry if this is in the wrong thread please remove if necessary thanks guys.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

ECM control run has a runner low scooting across northern France during the early hours of Christmas day.  850s of -1 across the south of England so unlikely to be snow but an interesting variation of the zonality theme.

Edited by mulzy
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