Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[bobbydog]

Just now, More Snow said:

Potato????

 

Well it looks like one and just as likely to bring us snow...

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Baked or roasted! 

We will probably end up with mash!

eagerly awaiting the ECM ensembles. Not sure potato will verify though...Did they eventually update last night? 

 

Edited December 15, 2016 by karlos1983

[Man With Beard]

14 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

I know it's in FI but that chart screams 'potato'

Great to see a more positive tone on here tonight!! Seriously though, this chart is not out of sync with mean, and not completely unlike some of the ECM charts at that range (less the Euro low heights) - they're all saying goodbye storms after Christmas.

[joggs]

1 hour ago, -uksnow- said:

And so the drama is dragged out further, 18z 'revenge of the block'. The question is, is this an over-reaction to a slight change in jet angle, or the tomorrows trend?

This just keeps us on the wrong side of cold though.We need alot more negative tilt and a thousand miles further sw to go under.Nowhere near for me especially with the mother vortex spawning it's little runners in a anti clockwise motion.And the block is poorly orientated. Ithe needs a torpedo shape through scandi and above us.

Sorry it just ain't happening.And for me,I don't know why people get so fixed up on every run.Even some of the more experienced posters who at times seem to contradict themselves by preaching to people not to get hung up on this run or that ect .

Sorry mods it's been awful on here today sifting through all the non model talk and people big upping and belittling.

 

[booferking]

The biggest roundabout in the Arctic and we still end up with these uppers. That would be are luck right there

[karlos1983]

Just now, booferking said:

The biggest roundabout in the Arctic and we still end up with these uppers. That would be are luck right there

Ahhh the dreaded northern based -AO

[A.J]

for crying out aloud....stay on topic!.....that's at least 4 mods/hosts dropping reminders in this thread today alone!......It really isn't hard nor does it require a degree to work out, yet as usual some really informative posts are just drowned out by off topic crud

[karlos1983]

Before we all get stood up in front of the headmaster here's a graph.

unfortunately not what I was hoping for after this mornings little group of members that went cold, that hasn't gathered momentum this evening. Bulk look very average in terms of 2m temperatures

in comparison to recent weeks, there is much better agreement, nowhere near as much scatter. Shannon releasing her grip??

Edited December 15, 2016 by karlos1983

[joggs]

5 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Ahhh the dreaded northern based -AO

Northern based -ao?

That's central for a start and other places around the hemisphere miss out.

We've been unlucky in the recent setup and may well be again 3 wks into Jan. But it's the way the cards fall and where the BritishIsles are placed.

 

Edited December 16, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[fergieweather]

EC MONTHLY: again like last run. Blocked & dry anomalies developing 1st half Jan as heights move W to north of UK. Colder than avg anomalies southern UK 2nd week Jan (not seen that signal for a while!). East-NE flow. So continuity between last runs and ditto with GloSea5. 

Don't shoot messenger. Just describing the output: not making any comment on outcome.

[karlos1983]

Thanks Ian 

appreciate the update. A good signal to have heading into winter proper! Feet firmly mounted to the ground though for now!

[Daniel*]

GEFS perbs looking like a marked improvement compared to 12z - all but one has at least -4C 850hpa in parts of UK at T+162 a few of them even bring cold off the continent, rather than through a polar maritime airmass. I'm not swaying with a mild Christmas period, I expect the hills of N England/Scotland to do quite well.

 

Edited December 16, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 Baked or roasted! 

Don't be silly! 

 

Here's the negative 2m temp anomaly for first week of Jan. SS will likely post the others tomorrow.

Edited December 16, 2016 by Gael_Force

[metrosnow]

Wow. My overnight visit to this forum for updates from the pro's (and more than useful semi pro's) has revealed the place has turned a little crazy tonight. What's happened?

Aaaah well, never mind, I have a rare gut feeling that the earlier references in this forum to a possible front loaded winter should really have referred to January being a month we'll talk about for years to come, and not for the amount of rainfall like the past few years! The models don't seem to be going that way  as yet but let's see eh?

Thanks Fergie for your continued information. Much appreciated.

[Mucka]

GFS very close to a snow event for the SE at 144h, if anyone is interested?

[Mucka]

8 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Though you were of duty until after Christmas Mucka

C.S

Who told you that?

Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated. 

I will be greatly limiting my posts for a while though, no good to anyone when it stops being fun and I am talking about myself here not other forum members.

 

It would take an awful lot of luck to reel that puddle of cold in off the continent but I like the idea of the jet digging further South, gives a few more options to see something wintry, even if it can only be transient for now.

.

Edited December 16, 2016 by Mucka

[Polar Maritime]

Many off topic posts have had to go missing.

Strictly Model Discussion only in here please. 

 

[knocker]

Firstly, and I know Ian F. has already commented from the full suite, but just my comment from the means of the ec46 because it's a follow up to my  post with the anomalies of yesterday evening. This just confirms the retrogression that was indicated then until around T528 ( 6th January) with strong positive anomalies over and to the north of the UK with the Azores ridge, which will be influencing the UK moving slowly east to west. Temps above average during this period. Later, towards the middle of January, more positive signs of positive anomalies to the north west/north with negative ones to the SE so quite interesting but this is where you need the full suite for any meaningful comment.

Back to the here and now and this morning's GFS. There are no significant changes in the long wave parameters so it's matter of what it's up to in the next ten days vis the day to day interactions of the upper Atlantic trough and the high pressure.

There is a renewed bout of ridging NE over the weekend which the trough does it's best to disrupt, and fails, so it has another bash on Wednesday and this time it succeeds and phases in with the cut off upper low to the south which has intensified and moved north.

From here until the weekend the trough is in charge and it spawns all sorts of nasties with fronts and small depressions flying around and traversing the UK bringing some wet and possibly some very windy weather.

The upper trough then deconstructs and by T240 a very familiar picture with a cut off upper low over Iberia and the HP ridging NE over the UK

A quick summation

From now until the middle of next week dry, exempting N. Ireland and Scotland at times, with any fronts dissipating just to the west with temps around average, From then until Xmas day some wintry weather with a mixture of rain, gales, and probably some snow from the Midlands north on high ground/ temps quite variable but dipping below average Xmas day itself is not yet resolved as the HP is beginning to ridge in but this detail will obviously change over the next few days so best left for the moment.

Edited December 16, 2016 by knocker

[Seasonality]

A fascinating 00z. The block is holding on in western Russia in the the more reliable timeframes but with such volatile output where can we say FI is right now?! All sorts of interesting results from the block's fight against the Atlantic. My favourite chart from the 00z is this nice little cold pool striking the far SE a glancing blow. All blown away in FI but FI being particularly "FIckle" at the moment we can leave it be. ( yes bad joke and yes I do know what FI means, hats off to you Ricardo Montalban)

[Seasonality]

ECM wants in on the xmas eve storm action. 

[knocker]

Certainly an eye needs to be kept on developments leading up to Xmas as this deep low could certainly impact NW Scotland as it stands with surface gusts 80Kts + in the southern quadrant.

[bluearmy]

Further to knockers post on the 46, upper temps  anomolies remain above average (though mean shows sub zero post day 18 countrywide). As we have  seen on other posts, that will translate to surface cold as we likely have a weak continental flow. The modelled drain away of high euro anomolies to our south through Jan is what is important for this seeking white stuff  but getting that to verify would be the trick! 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Certainly an eye needs to be kept on developments leading up to Xmas as this deep low could certainly impact NW Scotland as it stands with surface gusts 80Kts + in the southern quadrant.

@knocker would an eye also need to be kept on this "little" feature for the Northern half of Ireland? 

[knocker]

1 minute ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

@knocker would an eye also need to be kept on this "little" feature for the Northern half of Ireland? 

Indeed it would.

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Further to knockers post on the 46, upper temps  anomolies remain above average (though mean shows sub zero post day 18 countrywide). As we have  seen on other posts, that will translate to surface cold as we likely have a weak continental flow. The modelled drain away of high euro anomolies to our south through Jan is what is important for this seeking white stuff  but getting that to verify would be the trick! 

In what time frame do you foresee a weak continental flow Blue?