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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
12 hours ago, nick sussex said:

I think the problem is that theres been an obvious disconnect between the seasonal models and what we've actually seen occur. It might be a winter which was much more sensitive to those unforeseen variables. You make a good point with too much stall being placed on LRF's and its not that people don't appreciate the hard work that goes into them. Of course without pushing the boundaries science doesn't move forward but I think we're in a situation where some areas are very hard to make progress in and I'd put weather in that category.

Brilliant post sums it all up! Thank you. 

 What has caused the disconnection between the seasonal models .  Is it global warming ?  Something else ?  Could it be see temperature is changing due to underwater volcanic vents .  

 There seems to be so many different things from solar flares ,sunspots, volcanic activity  and probably other things that we don't know about yet.   The Met office are only humans and as we all know humans aren't perfect and neither are computers which are designed by humans .  It seems to me the weather is so much more difficult to forecast these days then back when they were using the little magnetic symbols on the weather charts .  Something has radically altered made the weather much more difficult to forecast . 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
44 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Morning all a mixed bag of outputs this morning,  the UKMO  is less than enthused  at T144hrs. It's much more progressive to the north and looks a bit uninterested.

This mornings ECM is an upgrade on yesterday because it now wants to take some energy se but we're still not seeing enough trough disruption. We do need a westwards correction because that could bring some snow into the equation as any rain could meet some colder air heading nw in a se flow.

The GFS is similar to last night but again not enough trough disruption there so its currently a bit close but no cigar. The PV looks to just have a bit too much punch at the moment so I think best to put any battle ground scenario as a low probability .

We'll see how things go during the day.

Yes Nick not very good at 144t from the main models. At crumb of comfort here at 120t from GFS that shows a cyclonic circulation developing over France. We just need to see the Med Low move a bit more northward and the colder flow will be into Southern England. Yes, its clutching at straws, but sometimes you have to look at developments closer to home and in a shorter time span. No good now looking at LRF charts for Christmas , we need to watch development of the Med Low with -in the next 120t period. Sometimes the models are slow to respond to pressure falls in this region and its development can spring a few surprises with its wider implications.  Me, sat here day after day under Euro high, hunting for a bit of Festive Cheer for snow starved Blighty ! Yes , I have the sun and snow on the ground but I want it for sake of all you winter fans . As Nick says, see how things go during the day. Time to watch those hourly synoptic charts and just see how much energy the Med Low can spin , its our last hope.

C

hgt500-1000.png

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Pot, kettle. And just as a bonus for you that there's no hard feelings I forgot the good old GEM. Still unsettled from the Atlantic for much of the UK but here the Euro block is stronger and further south leading to a snowless Xmas day for much of the continent but frigid surface temps under the high! 

PS... It may happen :santa-emoji::ball-santa-emoji:

All my fingers crossed all of Europe has the Xmas they want.

gemeu-0-240.png

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HI Seasonality,

I have checked the most recent ECMWF run fron this morning for my location - Roznava,Slovakia which is about 100kg south of Polish border and the main run is at the very top of Ensembles so actually its very good news as the mean is at least 3 degrees colder and some go very low indeed which will probably be good news for Poland and rest of Central Europe, see Image attached

al-epsecmgram_31507-20161215-0000-nwp-.png

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
11 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Catacol I'm not criticizing those who do LRF's. I'm just of the belief that theres too much chaos in the atmosphere to be able to accurately predict months ahead. LRF's have to make assumptions based on whats available at a set point in time.  And just as you've highlighted there were expectations for certain things to occur be it the MJO, AAM etc which haven't played ball. That's those variables which aren't foreseen at the time of the forecast. I perfectly understand what may have gone wrong and that's not the point, my point is that at the end of the day LRF's stand and fall by whether they were correct or not. I have already said that no one can criticize the work that goes into a LRF, you're misconstruing criticism of a forecast with criticism of those who made that LRF. No one is scoring cheap points in that way in here. We're all entitled to our own view of things, personally I don't believe in LRF's and have been a firm believer in the butterfly effect for as long as I've been interested in the weather. It maybe that science simply will not be able to solve this issue of accuracy in LRF, not because its not trying but its trying to solve an unsolvable puzzle.

 Another brilliant post . Thank you  or putting it across so well . 

 The other thing that could affect everything is the earths inner core.

 Sometime ago I watched a really interesting program , I can't remember her name but it was the really enthusiastic and excellent black lady presenter.   At the time she was mentioning that around the planet there are I think it was six or seven very strong independent magnetic areas and one of those was just off the coast of Portugal to the south-west .   I think these areas really intensify high-pressure systems .  If these areas below possibly shift around as well then I reckon that would have a huge effect on everything else including the weather . Was a fascinating program and I wish I could find it again to recollect exactly what she said but I do remember snippets from it and she put across so well .  So whilst many people look to the sun solar flares sunspots and other factors in our atmosphere I also think below the ground can potentially equally have a driving force affect on our weather .  Well in my opinion of course I could be completely wrong I'm no expert it's just a theory I have . 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Just now, jules216 said:

HI Seasonality,

I have checked the most recent ECMWF run fron this morning for my location - Roznava,Slovakia which is about 100kg south of Polish border and the main run is at the very top of Ensembles so actually its very good news as the mean is at least 3 degrees colder and some go very low indeed which will probably be good news for Poland and rest of Central Europe, see Image attached

al-epsecmgram_31507-20161215-0000-nwp-.png

Thank you @jules216 and that cold blast for the 22nd is still on the cards I see. Good news indeed.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 How hard is it for people to understand! There was a probability that Dec would be below average, as indeed there was a probability that Dec would be above average. It just so happened that the former was more favoured, but unfortunately the latter is the case so far. What else do you want them to do! We can't seriously expect them to tell us for certain what is going to happen, that's for the daily express lol. 

It is a simple concept isn't it? Are people being deliberately dense?!

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Ensemble 2 brings some festive cheer and is leading the way :D

1.png2.png3.png4.png5.png6.png7.png8.png9.png10.png16.png

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
33 minutes ago, karyo said:

I also don't agree that the Met Office got the pattern right. They predicted below average temperatures for December at the very least but this is not what we are getting.

i agree. in fact temperatures are way above normal in anything so far this December.

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
10 hours ago, fergieweather said:

:-) 'phone Adam Scaife and his team before they meet on Monday, Nick... as that's the very enigma they're trying to resolve even before discussing the next 3 months!

The fact remains that trying to fathom where these longer range outputs lead us *is* creditable: after all, they underpin everything we later see modelled at shorter range. And just as we see UKV misrepresent (or even miss altogether) the behaviour of a shortwave trough even at T+6hrs, we'll sure as dammit see times when a seasonal coupled model messes-up at T+600 hrs. It'll happen. We accept it. We run hindcasts; we learn; the model learns. Science advances. Snippet by snippet...

Whilst it's very easy to trash the seasonal or 30d models (primarily by people seemingly obsessed with some sole desire of snow, or who wrongly assume blocking=frigid), it's intriguing that many of those who devalue the long range bespoke models then willingly accept deterministic output so faithfully at those extended ranges as 'proof' of the extended lead models being 'wrong". 

That's a judgement we can reasonably make at around 5-7 days. But not at 10-15.

 Hi Ian ,

 I mentioned in one of my earlier posts that I had seen a program a few years ago .  The presenter was a black lady who was excellent ,  are enthusiastic and knowledgeable .  On that particular program she was talking about intense magnetic individual areas around the planet which there were six or seven of them i think.  One of those was just off the south west coast of Portugal .  Could it be these magnetic areas really affect the weather as well as all the atmospheric and sun  catalysts ?  

 I would just like to know your thoughts on how these areas and other areas below the surface could also affect the weather . 

 Thank you if you do read this and  could respond .

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

There's no point sugar coating it, the GFS ensembles are poor, even long term there is absolutely nothing snow conducive at all.

Model fatigue has begun to set in, and we are only 15 days in haha! That being said there is still hope, we desperately need to see that damn PV main lobe relocate AWAY from its favourite and most irritating place.

 

 

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
10 hours ago, nick sussex said:

I seem to have opened up a can of worms this evening! lol I'm not disputing that there have been advances in the modelling but I think theres only so far this can go. The problem is in a laboratory its far easier to isolate out variables whereas in the atmosphere its far more complicated. I don't believe science will ever be able to accurately forecast months ahead. Indeed one only has to look at the disaster NCEP have just had with their initial December forecast to show how difficult even forecasting a month ahead can be. That's not to say that science should give up on this but that as I said earlier in the thread its trying to solve a puzzle that can't be solved.

 Totally agree with you there Nick .  It's one of the most difficult and complex things .

 I absolutely take my hat off to the scientists and meteorologists at their efforts to gain an upper hand on the weather .  The weather does fall into the chaos theory and seems to just do what it wants at random times.  Sometimes easier to predict than another times but it will never be able to get it spot on. (  at least not in my lifetime ). 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The behaviour of the strat vortex during oct/Nov meant that parts of the mid latitudes would be very much colder than usual at times this month

And guess what, they have been and will continue to be so. 

We just got the wrong colour ticket so far

in my back garden, I have seen more frosts than the whole of last winter so whilst disappointed that the background pattern didn't deliver any snowfall, I never expected anything of that ilk until next week based on ec46 data several weeks ago and that dissipated far enough in advance in any case. 

I'm intrigued that cfs continues to see an SSW second week jan - I doubt winter is over peeps but if nw Europe remains in the  wrong place for deep cold then que sera

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, bluearmy said:

 

I'm intrigued that cfs continues to see an SSW second week jan -

Does anyone know where you can view mid strat heights and temps on the CFS please?

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Higher than average or lower than average pressure. It's relative isn't it not absolute so this should be noted. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I gave the models a miss last night, and when I sat down with a coffee this morning and looked in here and there were 10 pages, I thought we would have an easterly in the bag! But nope it would appear not...What's even more amazing is that the excitement was off the back of the pub run!  :whistling:

What is it they say, don't take one run as gospel, and as for the 18z.......but I guess we've all been guilty at some point. Discussion looked fun anyway!

My mindset now is fully focused on the period after Christmas and into the new year. I know there is still hope some might get a flake in the wind on Christmas Day, but its more likely you'll get a leaf in your face at the moment. 

Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day is grabbing my attention with this feature arriving in the SW and exiting the NE. Looks like it would pack a punch. Clearly it won't end up like that, but it's been a theme recently to throw up a storm around that time frame give or take a day.

IMG_4111.PNGIMG_4112.PNG

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It's not about people being 'dense' as you put it. It's more an annoyance that people can just not come out and hold their hands up- i.e 'yes things didn't pan out as we initially expected for whatever reason....etc etc' but instead we get a rewrite of history and it's turned around on to those who 'misinterpreted what was being said'. I didn't misinterpret anything...the form horse mid November was HP to NW and LP to S/ SE. That's a fact.

I think you're being paranoid. The met professionals have always been honest about probabilities vs predictions. And speaking of form horses the 25/1 outsider pipped the favourite, it does happen! And some people are being obtuse, there wouldn't be all this nonsense about 'fails' otherwise. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Not much change on the GFS op 06Z except perhaps a little more amplification is back to the east - nothing like the block that the GEFS was going for just a few days ago, still. 

gfs-0-150.png?6

Will we see an op run move towards those colder ensembles for T120/T144 at some point today?

One interesting observation - now I know the GFS parallel has thrown out some completely wrong charts at the D15 range this month,  but it did have a little spell consistently going for a stormy Christmas period about a week ago - it's looking increasingly likely that it will have been on the mark. Sorry can't find the parallel archieve but if you could you'd find it was pretty close to the following:

ECM1-240.GIF?15-12

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

 

Yes back to the models, and maybe a look at shorter term prospects, it is only 15 December.

 

At 120h all 3 main synoptic models show a large trough with much the same depth to it but some differences as to where actual surface lows could be.

 

By 192h and GFS, as is often the case, has deeper lows and several of them whilst ECMWF keeps things simple. Perhaps the most noteworthy factor is that both show Pm (Polar Maritime) air over the UK with a briskish west to south west surface flow. Bands of rain interspersed with drier and less breezy conditions.

 

So a change looks to be on its way. As to longer term, into the Christmas period then no doubt the models will chop and change to some extent. Some snow for the Scottish highlands and maybe some of the Pennine and Lake peaks but not looking too likely for elsewhere at the moment.

 

In the longer term, 8-15 days, and the anomaly charts suggest the more changeable weather will be with us, basically Polar Maritime air from the Atlantic. Who knows there could be a more northerly touch now and then behind one of the weather systems?

s back to the models, and maybe a look at shorter term prospects, it is only 15 December.

sorry no links but the synoptic outputs are there for all to see on the Net Wx page

 

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Apologies for going off piste... No agreement run to run, 06z showing a much flatter pattern for Xmas day. Russian high has all but disappeared.

gfseu-0-234.png

gfseu-0-240 (2).png

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