Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Dennis]

wow 18z some is on his way

[damianslaw]

Reading today's thread - should it be renamed the long range model discussion thread... alot of off topic posts in here today, not making for a good thread overall. Perhaps the lesson learnt here is best stick to reliable timeframe i.e. 144 hrs, 168 hrs tops, and you won't be frustrated. Yes good to look at the longer range outputs, but take which large caution. 

I'm sensing this thread in the days ahead is going to be a miserable place to be, and with that I won't be in here again until Monday, when the prospects for christmas become much clearer. 

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, offerman said:

 

 

 The patterns to sing over the years to show America getting more severe winters and Europe  getting milder winters . 

Actually that isn't correct

[radiohead]

Notice the different profile of the jet on the 22nd on the 18Z compared to the 12Z GFS

[nick sussex]

The PV is having a harder job here breaking through and the Azores high more displaced so far on the GFS 18hrs run.

[SMU]

UK zonality cancel.

Note how just the smidgeon of atlantic amplification & slightly better Scandi heights changes the whole orientation of how things progress down the line.

Edited December 14, 2016 by Steve Murr

[radiohead]

A strong low following, quite far south.

 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

UK zonality cancel.

Note how just the smidgeon of atlantic amplification & slightly better Scandi heights changes the whole orientation of how things progress down the line.

With v v cold air in Europe this isn't too far away from something much better - hard to believe that will happen though.

[Chris.R]

 Considering it's called the reliable timeframe, it's rather surprising that I haven't heard anything about the output within it discussed this evening, but there's been loads about longer range stuff. So what is the weather actually going to be like in the next week? 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, radiohead said:

A strong low following, quite far south.

 

Yes - could be an absolutely corking storm here - another 100mph+ wind run but this time further south so brings NW England into the firing line.

[Snowman.]

Pub run treat or trend? 12z had the block standing its ground but was a little too far east no we've seen it progress further west. Either way the block doesn't want to go without a fight.

 

[Spah1]

14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Reading today's thread - should it be renamed the long range model discussion thread... alot of off topic posts in here today, not making for a good thread overall. Perhaps the lesson learnt here is best stick to reliable timeframe i.e. 144 hrs, 168 hrs tops, and you won't be frustrated. Yes good to look at the longer range outputs, but take which large caution. 

I'm sensing this thread in the days ahead is going to be a miserable place to be, and with that I won't be in here again until Monday, when the prospects for christmas become much clearer. 

I've often thought there should be a model discussion thread for 0-10 days were people aren't allowed to discuss past 10 days. 

[nick sussex]

I think this GFS run is the first to at least attempt some energy heading se at the crucial timeframe. It even tries to get a lobe of positive heights over the top of the first low.

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

I've often thought there should be a model discussion thread for 0-10 days were people aren't allowed to discuss past 10 days. 

Here here.  Always thought that would be a good idea. 

[Mapantz]

A 949mb low pressure to the West of Ireland at T+216 - Can't wait to see where this GFS OP run sits in the ensembles!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Something extreme brewing in the 18z. Because the 12zECM wasn't as decent as 00z is neither here nor there.  I haven't changed or provided any update to my LRF as I think there is something very notable indeed coming for Xmas period.  And there are a myriad of options to play out before we know exactly what.  Now I've said that I expect the 00s will lump a slug back over us 

 

BFTP

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

With v v cold air in Europe this isn't too far away from something much better - hard to believe that will happen though.

Ye it won't be there in The 00z

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016121418/gfs-0-234.png?18

 

Dispaced PV episode........wild and a WALL OF SNOW......no kidding but that is a winter storm

 

BFTP

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Here here.  Always thought that would be a good idea. 

Agreed.  I think a pre-T+240 and post-T+240 distinction is useful.

[Paul]

Can we keep this to the model output please. On this page alone we've had conspiracy theory, out and out moans, and discussions about the format of this discussion.

If you've got some ideas for the format of this or any other discussion, please post them up into the help and feedback thread, they'll be read there and not jumbled in as an off topic part of a weather discussion:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/67-help-support-and-feedback/

If you want to moan, the moans thread is the place:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

And if you want to talk conspiracy theories and the like, errm maybe head to facebook 

Thanks!

[SMU]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016121418/gfs-0-234.png?18

 

Dispaced PV episode........wild and a WALL OF SNOW......no kidding but that is a winter storm

 

BFTP

Ive got £15 on dublin white xmas !

Interesting 18z - we still need more amplification around the 180 mark..

[nick sussex]

The issue even if we get this trend is these low pressures remain attached to the Alien Queen( deep low heights and PV over Greenland) whose popping out energy pods to feed her vile spawn. Shortwaves running east pick up some energy from mother and then hurtle into the UK. These deep lows are reluctant to disrupt. Regardless at least the earlier trend gives a glimmer of hope after a rather underwhelming evening of outputs.

[Man With Beard]

13 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Considering it's called the reliable timeframe, it's rather surprising that I haven't heard anything about the output within it discussed this evening, but there's been loads about longer range stuff. So what is the weather actually going to be like in the next week? 

Well the problem is we clearly don't know! We had so much forecasts of blocking that I still somehow believe I will wake up in the morning to find it is back to where it was - yet some models are just flat, and now we have models raining storms on us - and maybe even sending the storms SE. We often talk about FI being a certain timeframe, and I'd put that somewhere between T120 and T144. Just for starters, I believe that area of low heights near Italy has not been modelled properly yet, and that could have a major impact at a short timeframe.

[Tamara]

The downsides (as well as the upsides) of the way forward for the start of winter into beyond were highlighted before the long range models started to move away from the predominant blocking signal to the NW - which had been well advertised at the end of November.  I alone have spent the last week, at least. repeating this because it was either being selectively ignored or because it hadn't yet snowed as (allegedly) had been promised). .

Which illustrates well the point that Catocol makes, that the MJO, GWO, OJO-flip blah blah are only deemed useful to some when the models (who derive their input from these signals in the first place) support the synoptics the majority hope for.

If these "global signals" are a subject of mystical folklore, unless it suits, then it will have to be forgiven the reaction that comes back from others who value them for the true purpose they provide in terms of giving a heads-up where NWP may evolve in the future. Its not the messengers fault if they don't eventually promote raging blizzards.

I neither profess myself in the slightest to be any special expert, soothsayer or have some clever inner perception that none else possesses, but what is frustrating is to keep seeing these misrepresented perceptions endlessly peddled - especially when you know that a balanced analysis has been attempted..which says as much about what can go wrong (according to the uncertainty of the "global signals") as can go right.

Speaking personally I've had to resort to even signposting where a post was deliberately taking a upbeat stance and the cautious "what might go wrong" stance. That should never be necessary - people should be able to read between the lines themselves before pulling the trigger.

In that sense I am most fed up of the constant misrepresentations and the obvious fact that the posts haven't even been read properly in the first place before response made. They are meant to be  taken as on-going summaries which are meant to illustrate transparency in the first place. If the intent was to somehow try to be clever and or just soley want to tell everyone what they want to hear, why bother to invest time and energy into setting out the posts this way in the first place?. Its as much about seeing what doesn't go according to plan, as it is about seeing what evolves according to expectations. If trying to be the pied-piper was the intention, then I think there would be better reason to be hung out to dry.

Its because the GSDM (incorporating both tropical and extra tropical signals that have a massive effect on global weather and jet stream pattern) can help give a starting insight to NWP that matters. Its not about the type of tiresome neanderthral LRF competitive one-upmanship that permeates this thread every winter.

Speaking personally I don't even do LRF'S

Its also unfortunately the same (relative minority) of armchair critics that turn out as part of this tedious, unconstructive and divisive process - when expectations and hopes are not met.

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by Tamara
Edited to better illustrate it was a general observation

[snowray]

35 minutes ago, Dennis said:

wow 18z some is on his way

Russian high migrated 1,000/2,000 miles Eastwards on this run...more please!

Not too dissimilar there.