Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

We *may* end the year on a calm note with light southerly winds. 

Hopefully bitter winds from the east

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

After a stormy Christmas, we end the year on a calm note with light southerly winds

Now that chart screams potential!! HP ridging up over the LP in Ukraine trough disruption to our west.......easterly down the line?

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Now that chart screams potential!! HP ridging up over the LP in Ukraine trough disruption to our west.......easterly down the line?

 

BFTP

It's day 16 Fred! 

[The PIT]

Well deep FI shows something of interest if we going to have this mild rubbish. It may get  a little stormy. Sadly way out lala land so won't happen. Still it ain't going to be cold make it stormy instead.

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

The form horse in this scenario will always be the UKMO / ECM blend ...

Blocking to continue - atlantic post day 8 a possibility - but at what angle.....?

Hi Steve Murr. Would you think this outcome to be possible or are heights to the east going to be too strong. I'm struggling to see even how a NW will deliver snow potential the border down for Christmas Eve period? 

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[weatherguy]

21 hours ago, weatherguy said:

Ugh.  Same feeling here for the last month or so of model watching; tangible promise always held at an arm's length away which can get tedious, yet not so much a write off as last year's zonal slogfest which removed the carrot entirely!  A better position to be in at face value I suppose.

Anywho, 12z ECM does show some promise where looking at the Canadian lobe of the PV.  +24/144/240 below.

At +24 the broadscale pattern looks very good, but alas a few hundred miles away from delivering true cold to our shores.  Without retrogression of the HP to the NW, and with those nasty deep purples over Canada, things would be looking pretty grim.  What's good though is that, while the ridging on the Pacific side of things does subside, energy is allowed to move out of Canada while the close proximity of the Euro High spares us a zonal train.  Note by +240, low heights are kept in play over the med, the Canadian lobe is looking a bit less "woken up at 4am by a prank caller" angry, and there is still some degree of HLB dotted around the NH, keeping the spokes of the PV-wheel clanging along out of rhythm. 

So in summary; by +240h, the NH profile is somewhat worse than present, but being unable to capitalise on this current scenario, the progression is a good one.  No true cold imminent, but neither a zonal mush - cool and reasonably dry looks the form horse, with hopefully some more interesting stuff on offer beyond the D10 period.

Hope this analysis has helped some

 

My post from last night...Seeing this trend continuing today from the 00z ECM.  Again, +24/144/240 below.

Of course there are some pretty big differences between the +240 charts, but the similarities at +144 are certainly there; the latter run being a tad more amplified and the emerging Russian high being of interest.  But, as I suggested before, the key thing is getting that huge core of energy out of Canada as that's exactly where we don't want it to be - it shifts east while the Sceuro high shields us from a prolonged zonal period, energy moves away and the pattern can once again amplify.  

The potential is certainly there

PS - though it's rather silly to look at specifics of a +240h chart, a white christmas would certainly be on the cards on this run 

Edited December 14, 2016 by weatherguy

[feb1991blizzard]

26 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

We *may* end the year on a calm note with light southerly winds. 

We WILL actually end the year on a very active note with storm or hurricane force winds, this will carry on until mid Jan caused by an SSW, STRONG STRATOSPHERIC WESTERLIES.

[nick sussex]

Not sure the UKMO is a sinker at T144hrs,  if some energy disrupts from Greenland to meet up with those low heights in Iberia then this might stop any sinking.

The GFS much more progressive and not liking it at all, any Atlantic attack needs to come in at a more favourable angle. Christmas hopes IMO rest on the models disrupting some energy se.

Edited December 14, 2016 by nick sussex

[Daniel Finch]

40 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A cold Christmas eve for Scotland and possibly the far north of England but elsewhere it's fairly mild

I keep seeing charts like this and it's annoying me. It's DECEMBER damnit. It's becoming more often we see mild temps in December now. 

[SMU]

@Matthew Wilson

around day 7-9 we see the next wave of energy coming across the atlantic

Its a very tough call but the models usually under estimate the block meaning instead of the current solution where it just barrells east - the track could well be significantly altered north of south or both with a split-

So the GFS is the 'fast' solution with a quick eastward propergation- look for the ECM 12z to be slower & look for a different outcome at day 8-9 IE possibly diving into Europe or more up towards Iceland- both outcomes indicitive of stronger eastern Heights....

S

 

[A Frayed Knot]

[Seasonality]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's day 16 Fred! 

I think Fred is all too aware of that blue. But I agree with him, if that were the outcome there could be good things to come. If cold is your thing.

[chris55]

50 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Russian high shows its face.

 

In all my years model watching I dont think I have ever seen the Russian high migrate far enough west to influence our weather....we can but hope and with the swings in output lately, including the longer range suites (Glosea-EC 46) it seems there is some sort of background signal that really wants to pull in some northern blocking, And if it can result in a fired up Atlantic undercutting a retrogressing Russin high the yes please !!

[Gael_Force]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We WILL actually end the year on a very active note with storm or hurricane force winds, this will carry on until mid Jan caused by an SSW, STRONG STRATOSPHERIC WESTERLIES.

I know you are being tongue in cheek but a couple of recent references from Fergie made me wonder .... maybe, just maybe, they are seeing signs of life in the stratosphere for something in January. 

[stewfox]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We WILL actually end the year on a very active note with storm or hurricane force winds, this will carry on until mid Jan caused by an SSW, STRONG STRATOSPHERIC WESTERLIES.

Thanks for removing the uncertainties in the model output forecast, was driving us all nuts.

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I know you are being tongue in cheek but a couple of recent references from Fergie made me wonder .... maybe, just maybe, they are seeing signs of life in the stratosphere for something in January. 

I have been highlighting that- All the climo suggests that week 2 / week 3 of Jan is the expected glide path if it does varify

CFS quite consistent on this period as well as UKMO snippets-

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I know you are being tongue in cheek but a couple of recent references from Fergie made me wonder .... maybe, just maybe, they are seeing signs of life in the stratosphere for something in January. 

If any SSW was to occur it would be well into Jan so even with quick trop response, I just don't see any cold until late Jan, my statement above is over exaggerated both in sureness and extent but do believe we are in for zonal or with any buckling too far east so mild and wet for foreseeable. one thing I would say though is IF we get any continental or polar feed of air this season, I have a feeling it would pack a punch.

Edited December 14, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's day 16 Fred! 

Just highlighting that a chart like that screams potential......not the slug we've been having.  Never has this slug shown potential 

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

28 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I think Fred is all too aware of that blue. But I agree with him, if that were the outcome there could be good things to come. If cold is your thing.

Absolutely 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Just highlighting that a chart like that screams potential......not the slug we've been having.  Never has this slug shown potential 

 

BFTP

To be fair we have seen loads of runs with potential already this season at much shorter ranges but none have come to anything.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean trends unsettled from T+168 hours and continues during christmas before high pressure returns between xmas / new year.

Edited December 14, 2016 by Frosty.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair we have seen loads of runs with potential already this season at much shorter ranges but none have come to anything.

Feb, the point I am trying to make is that we need to see that type of set (and neartime) to shout real potential. The movement and positioning is ripe.  It is la la land so not real potential

 

BFTP

[SMU]

ECM day 7 sees the deep vortex tightly wound up & a very strong +VE AO, very 2015 esque - 

Can we get a smidge or amplification at 192 to squeeze that polar air SE

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I have been highlighting that- All the climo suggests that week 2 / week 3 of Jan is the expected glide path if it does varify

CFS quite consistent on this period as well as UKMO snippets-

Well that's a first, Steve: CFS and consistent in the same sentence? Not sure that 'consistent' would be my first choice of adjective, given that we are referring to the CFS?

Edited December 14, 2016 by Ed Stone

[gottolovethisweather]

Is this the banter thread or model output discussion thread? What's the ECM op up to, anyone? Will it snow on my house roof at D16? Will the GFS ever accurately forecast surface conditions which verify at D10, D12, D14 or D16? Will any model's chart be correct at such a range? Who is going to top the charts on Christmas Day? I'm Dreaming Of A Washout Christmas by the Netweather Choristers. 

Happy Christmas. I need a drink.  A bit more in-depth analysis would be gratefully appreciated please. Why, where, and how you think said developments might occur and when are always helpful to full and part-time seasoned members and beginners.

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by gottolovethisweather