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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

I personally prefer the type of weather we have now to zonal!  I don't want relentless wind/rain floods!  Just my personsal preference. 

 

However if the charts that  everyone is posting showing that deep flow to the north-west then that could indeed bring colder weather and who knows a few flakes here in there :-) 

 

 What we need is that massive high-pressure to the south and south-west to move in a more vertical position (  and stay in mid Atlantic )as opposed to flat , then potentially link up to the Greenland high.  That would force the low and down over us and open the gates behind to an Arctic freezer . 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Zonal is the way forward out of this rut, especially if it involves cold zonality..christmas isn't a lost cause yet!:santa-emoji::reindeer-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, Carl46Wrexham said:

I can't wait to hear you complaining a month from now that we are still stuck in a zonal rut with no end in sight. Be careful what you wish for and all that. How many winters have we had trashed from being locked in a never ending zonal crudfest? We can only hope that the flood prone don't suffer. Think they deserve a break after last years horror show.

I know the risks but I'm losing patience with this sluggish pattern with the euro trash high, I'm hoping support keeps growing for a marked change because the current rut leads to nowheresville.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm not sure what we can discount at the moment - just compared the ECM monthlies for week 2 and just 36 hours on it's already looking a complete bust for the area between Iceland and Scandi (the area most crucial for us, I'd argue), particularly if the ECM is right.

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2016121200_33   test8.gif

On the ECM monthly, the lowest anomalies stayed well west of Iceland. On the latest ECM/GFS chart, they are either over or even past Iceland.

I'm quite surprised as I've found on 7 occasions in the last 8 weeks, the ECM monthly has been fairly close for week 2, so I really was expecting it to verify. So now it's 7 in 9.

Not bad odds, but clearly there's a not unsubstantial risk of things going wrong even just 8 days into ECM monthly - and any other run, I suppose!!! 

 

I'm not sure that's totally justified. You only have to move the ec46 on a couple of days and you are looking at quite an intense upper trough to the NW/. Those Icelandic charts are a tad deceptive when comparing to the NH because you have no clear idea of the 500mb analysis apart from the distorted view.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

I suppose if hp weather with cold days and frost would have been second prize ,cold zonality is third prize, or to some perhaps the other way around.

The charts the ecm is showing just before xmas reminds me a bit of the pm shot we had just before xmas 2013.

The only thing about cold zonality is it rarely leds to anything better further down the line and more often then not eventually leds to mild zonality that would be the one worry i would have but for now im happy enough with what the ecm is showing. Anything is better then this current stuff.

Edited by sundog
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm not sure what we can discount at the moment - just compared the ECM monthlies for week 2 and just 36 hours on it's already looking a complete bust for the area between Iceland and Scandi (the area most crucial for us, I'd argue), particularly if the ECM is right.

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2016121200_33   test8.gif

On the ECM monthly, the lowest anomalies stayed well west of Iceland. On the latest ECM/GFS chart, they are either over or even past Iceland.

I'm quite surprised as I've found on 7 occasions in the last 8 weeks, the ECM monthly has been fairly close for week 2, so I really was expecting it to verify. So now it's 7 in 9.

Not bad odds, but clearly there's a not unsubstantial risk of things going wrong even just 8 days into ECM monthly - and any other run, I suppose!!! 

 

The ec46 chart is a week long mean of an ens mean suite  and the others you posted are based on operational data only

The  eps today show the low anomoly making inroads into the uk and across the meridian - just, but the high anomolies fight back in the extended period 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 minutes ago, knocker said:

I;m not sure that's totally justified. You only have to move the ec46 on a couple of days and you are looking at quite an intense upper trough to the NW/. Those Icelandic charts are a tad deceptive when comparing to the NH because you have no clear idea of the 500mb analysis apart from the distorted view.

So what you're saying is that if you look at the ec46 on day by day basis rather than weekly basis, it would show a deep trough to the north of Scotland for some of the days? Which days are those?

Judging by the week 3 anomaly on the EC46, I would have guessed the trough stays further west throughout but of course it may be possible for a few days of a transitory trough passing through from Iceland to Scandi before heights reestablishing to the NE. But if you have day-to-day access to the EC46, you'd be in a better position to comment.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

GFS 6 is following the same theme as the 0z at t186, with everything a little further south...

0Z gfsnh-0-192.png  6Z gfsnh-0-186.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So what you're saying is that if you look at the ec46 on day by day basis rather than weekly basis, it would show a deep trough to the north of Scotland for some of the days? Which days are those?

Judging by the week 3 anomaly on the EC46, I would have guessed the trough stays further west throughout but of course it may be possible for a few days of a transitory trough passing through from Iceland to Scandi before heights reestablishing to the NE. But if you have day-to-day access to the EC46, you'd be in a better position to comment.

I'm just saying that it starts developing the trough around T216 and it is in close proximity to the west until around T360  Albeit it's still quite amplified with quite strong positive anomalies to the east. It remains to be seen where the current EPS ends up but at the moment we are looking at south westerly warm zephyrs.:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
31 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Zonal is the way forward out of this rut, especially if it involves cold zonality..christmas isn't a lost cause yet!:santa-emoji::reindeer-emoji:

Frosty ,nice to see you are on board ,get those crayons out ,and christmas 11/12 days away so plenty can happen , synoptic wise we just dont know whats on the horizon cheers:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
32 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

I can't wait to hear you complaining a month from now that we are still stuck in a zonal rut with no end in sight. Be careful what you wish for and all that. How many winters have we had trashed from being locked in a never ending zonal crudfest? We can only hope that the flood prone don't suffer. Think they deserve a break after last years horror show.

Absoloutely spot on Carl, Couldn't of put that better myself! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, legritter said:

Frosty ,nice to see you are on board ,get those crayons out ,and christmas 11/12 days away so plenty can happen , synoptic wise we just dont know whats on the horizon cheers:yahoo:

Let's hope its a blue crayon:cold-emoji:

There is a risk with zonality but it's not like we have a choice, the weather does what it wants but I would be happy to see us break out of this current rut which is eating into winter with nothing of interest happening.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
6 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm just saying that it starts developing the trough around T216 and it is in close proximity to the west until around T360  Albeit it's still quite amplified with quite strong positive anomalies to the east. It remains to be seen where the current EPS ends up but at the moment we are looking at south westerly warm zephyrs.:shok:

That's very useful to know, Knocker. So do you think the EC46 was simply a couple of days late on the evolution? After all, from the weekly summary I can see a huge anomaly close to the Baltic Sea and so surely heights must be quite exceptional there on the EC46 T168-T336 period for at least 4 out of the 7 days? 

The latest T168-T240 ECM / GFS anomalies now showing the centre of the heights anomaly into the Baltic States and further into W Russia - did the corresponding EC46 show signs of this anomaly drifting east with time? Thank you for your time, I'm just trying to learn what I can and can't do with the EC46 mean weekly charts, for mine and hopefully everyone else's benefit.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Slightly better upstream from the GFS 06 hrs run, a bit more amplified but to the ne its on a different planet compared to the ECM.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

That little runner wants to rippen..allowing northerly inflow. 

Waa correcting nicely eastern seaboard. ..not far off ecm atm.

 

gfsnh-0-234-2.png

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Posted
  • Location: North Wales 208m asl
  • Weather Preferences: crisp frosty days in Winter
  • Location: North Wales 208m asl

Don't the models GFS in particular under estimate what it takes to blow the block away and they invariably prove to be more stubbon. The front moving from the west off ther Atlantic now is stalling againts the block. Is that what you guys call trough disruption? But it seems the energy is going North or at least the front is would that be correct? Also form the NH views it looks like the PV is set up over the Artic and not northern Caneda as it was last yesr, so would I be right in thinking that was more favourable for us?

Edited by EastAnglian
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
15 minutes ago, karyo said:

I can't see why anybody who doesn't live on a hilly location would wish for (cold) zonality. I live in the northern half of the country and I am yet to see anything more than sleet/wet snow from cold zonality. As sundog also mentions, cold zonality tends to be brief and before you know it you are back in the long fetch southwesterlies.

With the stratosphere hostile for northern blocking, a mid latitude high is our best chance for a seasonal feel to the weather.

100% with you.  The problem is I cannot remember (well I can...Xmas 2001 I think) where we had decent cold Zonality snow. It's been rain/sleety snow with patchy frost if any due to the wind.  No thanks from me unless it's incredible uppers...which as Gav says on Twitter normally get scaled down in the run up to them.

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

To be honest I'm not really sure zonal is a good thing. Would much prefer the dry outlook we have now. Trouble with the zonal set up is for most a wet and windy affair. And could set us up for a south westerly regime in rather quick time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There is a risk with zonality but it's not like we have a choice, the weather does what it wants

^^^That is exactly why there's no point worrying or moaning about what is or may come weather wise. If someone gets flooded out due to 'zoneality' it's not happened because we wished for it, just the same as snow won't arrive if we all close our eyes and wish hard enough.

GFS 6Z certainly looking very zonal in FI, with not much in the way of solid precipitation even higher up.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec46 chart is a week long mean of an ens mean suite  and the others you posted are based on operational data only

The  eps today show the low anomoly making inroads into the uk and across the meridian - just, but the high anomolies fight back in the extended period 

Ah - apologies - I thought they were mean charts.

Do you (or anyone else) know where to find corresponding mean charts for the daily ECM / GEFS? I think it would be really useful to closely analyse how they compare with the EC46 esp. at week 2 where we have an opportunity to see all output - not just for this particular EC46 but over a period of time. The EC monthly has always been this big mystery to those without access and it would be really good for us amateurs to have as good a picture as we can - see the facts and then make our own judgments.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

That's very useful to know, Knocker. So do you think the EC46 was simply a couple of days late on the evolution? After all, from the weekly summary I can see a huge anomaly close to the Baltic Sea and so surely heights must be quite exceptional there on the EC46 T168-T336 period for at least 4 out of the 7 days? 

Is that not what they were discussing on Monday? ie. switch of emphasis on the daily ensembles from blocking over us to trough situation instead. The EC 46 would have been initiated when the bulk were in favour of the high holding on and hence the positioning of the anomalies. 

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