Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[nick sussex]

Interesting that the ECM keeps low heights in the Med right the way through from T144hrs to T240hrs. For that reason I wouldn't rule out anything going forward. If the models have overdone the jet then good things might happen.

Without those low heights I would be quite pessimistic but I won't be throwing my toys out of the pram this evening which I'm sure is a relief to those who have had to put up with a few of my tirades recently!

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mb018538 said:

One word....yuck. Two 950mb lows and those horrid dark purples above that we don't want to

HorridPV again,can't find much to be optimistic about..

[Blizzard 63]

Looks cold and frosty for England and wales

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Interesting that the ECM keeps low heights in the Med right the way through from T144hrs to T240hrs. For that reason I wouldn't rule out anything going forward. If the models have overdone the jet then good things might happen.

Without those low heights I would be quite pessimistic but I won't be throwing my toys out of the pram this evening which I'm sure is a relief to those who have had to put up with a few of my tirades recently!

 

But look at the PV Nick! The jet is absolutely relentless coming off the eastern seaboard..

[Bristawl Si]

Confused.com.........again.

In space of 10 mins v conflicting views from posters.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Confused.com.........again.

In space of 10 mins v conflicting views from posters.

Best to ignore the emotionally driven one liners and stick to those that wish to put a bit of meat on the bones.

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Blizzard 63 said:

Looks cold and frosty for England and wales

There is total confusion in here

 

Just now, Bristle boy said:

Confused.com.........again.

In space of 10 mins v conflicting views from posters.

You got there before me very odd HOW different members see the MODELS. 

 

[nick sussex]

14 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Ecm looks like the worst run of winter to me.

 

BFTP

Really. I don't get that at all, how  can the ECM be the worst run of the winter with the PV weakening at T240hrs, low heights over the Med and more amplitude showing up over the Pacific.

Have you started on the Christmas sherry early? lol

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

But look at the PV Nick! The jet is absolutely relentless coming off the eastern seaboard..

It is indeed...But, a week back, it wasn't. And, what's to say that, two-weeks hence, it won't be in tatters once more?

[Richard Fisher]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

There is total confusion in here

 

You got there before me very odd HOW different members see the MODELS. 

 

Totally agree from monster cold posts to mildest ECM run of the winter? Not helpful to newbies.

[Blizzard 63]

High pressure over England and Wales cold crisp with frost and fog that's the way I see it

[snowbunting]

Interesting to see the GFS  12z introduce colder polar maritime air just before Christmas. It suggested this a few dats ago. time will tell.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Blizzard 63 said:

High pressure over England and Wales cold crisp with frost and fog that's the way I see it

Which model would that be please and what time frame would you be taking the full run?

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

But look at the PV Nick! The jet is absolutely relentless coming off the eastern seaboard..

I'm not saying to rush out and buy a sledge! lol Theres certain correlations for the UK and low heights in the Med especially if they get sufficiently north towards Italy cuts of that wretched Azores high from pushing in and that means its difficult to turn into a mild horror show.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[blizzard81]

Well, I for one wasn't expecting that ecm run. Is it me or did that run go back to strengthening the block to our east when compared to the 00z run? It looked like that to me

Edited December 13, 2016 by blizzard81

[gottolovethisweather]

10 minutes ago, Blizzard 63 said:

High pressure over England and Wales cold crisp with frost and fog that's the way I see it

Surface cold but not deep cold hence some folk aren't so happy with the outputs. IMBY there should be a good deal of dry weather, hopefully, with sunshine in abundance if our cards fall right.

[ArHu3]

30 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Well this isnt the gut instinct thread im afraid.

But there are a lot of parameters (SAI, QBO, PV strength, sea ice) going into winter which are very extraordinary, so we can hope for some   extraordinary outcome

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Best to ignore the emotionally driven one liners and stick to those that wish to put a bit of meat on the bones.

Best you explain why it is good Frosty Ground.  Mild, wrong orientation and storms shoved north.  It is an awful run because the slug is not shifted.  Now please explain the good.....and don't mention the mjo

Remember my post was about the ECM

 

 

BFTP

Edited December 13, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[gottolovethisweather]

24 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Confused.com.........again.

In space of 10 mins v conflicting views from posters.

 

 

 

Hopefully, my post above and my one on the previous page helps you and any newbies.

My post above requoted as follows.

 

"Surface cold (think inversions) but not deep cold hence some folk aren't so happy with the outputs. IMBY there should be a good deal of dry weather, hopefully, with the sunshine in abundance if our cards fall right."

IT DOES HELP IF MEMBERS WOULD POST CHART RELATED CONTENT RATHER THAN ENTERING INTO ONE LINERS ON HERE AS THE PAGE COUNT INCREASES FAR TOO FAST! 

Edited December 13, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Blizzard 63]

Surface colds good enough for me

[doghouse]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Best you explain why it is good Frosty Ground.  Mild, wrong orientation and storms shoved north.  It is an awful run because the slug is not shifted.  Now please explain the good.....and don't mention the mjo

Remember my post was about the ECM

 

 

BFTP

Three posts up by the seasoned and erudite Saint  Nick of Lourdes

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Really. I don't get that at all, how  can the ECM be the worst run of the winter with the PV weakening at T240hrs, low heights over the Med and more amplitude showing up over the Pacific.

Have you started on the Christmas sherry early? lol

Ha ha Nick, been scolded for already polishing it off. To quantify....for Dec.  Very underwhelming as we see other places enter record books re cold and snow 

BFTP

[frosty ground]

10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Best you explain why it is good Frosty Ground.  Mild, wrong orientation and storms shoved north.  It is an awful run because the slug is not shifted.  Now please explain the good.....and don't mention the mjo

Remember my post was about the ECM

 

 

BFTP

Don't need to explain anything I haven't made any one liners regarding the output but I do belive that Nick has made a few decent points

[nick sussex]

For newbies who might be confused with some of tonights comments. Just think of it this way, PV dark purples to the north trying to sink the high, that low pressure you can see in the Med is doing its best to stop that from happening.

In these situations something has to give, eventually one wins out, you either get the PV winning out or you'll see it slowly weaken or at least edge west , in that case you'll see some trough disruption with some energy heading se and in effect giving that low pressure a top up. At this point the high after being battered and bruised picks itself up and starts to ridge north again.

For this reason whenever you see a chart in winter which has low pressure in the northern Med then this is a big help, its very difficult for milder conditions to get in with that there and it can often deliver cold to the UK.

For those that have followed the thread over recent days you'll see I've been less than enthused by the outputs however because of that low pressure in the Med I'm willing to wait and see where we go from here. The PV may win out but theres a chance it won't.

Edited December 13, 2016 by nick sussex