Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[marksp]

2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

My retired colleague Ian McCaskill, RIP, would have relished discussing this Christmas Kerfuffle on-air with typical humour. 

GFS 12z deterministic very similar in final reaches of run to Thursdays ECMWF Monthly broadscale set-up for same period just after Christmas. Whether that will remain so tonight, we shall see....

just heard the announcement on BBC News always missed his cheery forecasts, and his enthusiastic summarys, 

[offerman]

3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

My retired colleague Ian McCaskill, RIP, would have relished discussing this Christmas Kerfuffle on-air with typical humour. 

GFS 12z deterministic very similar in final reaches of run to Thursdays ECMWF Monthly broadscale set-up for same period just after Christmas. Whether that will remain so tonight, we shall see....

Oh Crumbs!! I didn`t know this!  What a legend and one of my all time favourite forecasters(personalities).  RIP absolute Legend and nice gentleman. :-( 

[Dancerwithwings]

One of the original legends.....He brought lots of sunshine and snow to my life as a youngster, RIP.

[Methuselah]

59 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Not entirely true, there are plenty in the ensembles that support it, but as we have to repeat over and over again the ensemble mean isn't a fair reflection of the clusters.

And, let us not forget December 2012? Cross-model agreement? Ensemble agreement? MetO agreement? And, last but not least - James Madden agreement?

IMO, if ever Murphy's Law applied to anything, it's the GFS at T+348!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, RIP Ian, childhood forecaster loved his forecasts

[Nick L]

Tributes and well-wishes regarding the sad passing of Ian McCaskill are being made here:

 

[Blizzard 63]

R.I.P  ian

[chris55]

22 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

My retired colleague Ian McCaskill, RIP, would have relished discussing this Christmas Kerfuffle on-air with typical humour. 

GFS 12z deterministic very similar in final reaches of run to Thursdays ECMWF Monthly broadscale set-up for same period just after Christmas. Whether that will remain so tonight, we shall see....

The period between Christmas and new year has actually presented some OK cold periods in the so called "large teapot era" and its interesting to hear ECM 46dayer was seeing a similar pattern to tonight's GFS FI. Time will tell, but that does at least offer a miniscule amount of support for a random GFS TEF chart!

hehe M.O.D.E.R.N W.I.N.T.E.R has a block on it lols.

Edited December 12, 2016 by chris55

[Summer Sun]

A chillier looking end to ECM tonight

[Roadrunner]

Gutted to hear of the passing of Ian M. I hope the mods will allow me to post this memorable forecast in memoriam to the great man. 

 

I remember this well. 

[frosty ground]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

A chillier looking end to ECM tonight

It's my favourite type of North westerly... a wintry one

[Guest]

1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

My retired colleague Ian McCaskill, RIP, would have relished discussing this Christmas Kerfuffle on-air with typical humour. 

GFS 12z deterministic very similar in final reaches of run to Thursdays ECMWF Monthly broadscale set-up for same period just after Christmas. Whether that will remain so tonight, we shall see....

A very warm, kind and popular man who will be sorely missed. I had the opportunity to work with him on one of the programmes in the BBC2 series "The Essential Guide to Weather" broadcast in 1999. Ian had just retired as a BBC Weatherman and hosted the series. I used to run the weather station in the Rickmansworth frost hollow and Philip Eden recommended that there should be a feature on this in one of the programmes. I did a short presentation by my Stevenson's screen while Ian did an experiment to demonstrate temperature inversions by digging a slanting channel in a flower bed and pouring dry ice down it - it was typically amusing! Wonderful memories.

Edited December 12, 2016 by Guest

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

The period between Christmas and new year has actually presented some OK cold periods in the so called "large teapot era" and its interesting to hear ECM 46dayer was seeing a similar pattern to tonight's GFS FI. Time will tell, but that does at least offer a miniscule amount of support for a random GFS TEF chart!

It might even be one of Buchan's Cold Spells? I'm not sure, but it often happened way back when are were a lud...

R. I. P. Ian. 

[Dennis]

MJO GFS latest sees 7 or 8 ; thats nice so see a colder turn but need also good details (the GFS12 was OK)

 

 

[Summer Sun]

A nasty old low on tonight's ECM for the north west thankfully at D10

Edited December 12, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Weathizard]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A chillier looking end to ECM tonight

A pretty dire chart long term though, ECM doesn't seem keen on migrating that lobe of the PV from Greenland/Canada, which is a concern as this was being shown quite commonly a few days ago.

That being said I'm content with HP being in charge as lots of the output is showing, sure it's boring but I can't stand rain and the zonal train so give me a stagnant high pressure any day over that!

Edited December 12, 2016 by Weathizard

[gottolovethisweather]

34 minutes ago, Timbo said:

I posted this on Saturday, looks like it is shaping up nicely, with a bit of movement further north and jackpot for xmas

Indeed, I'll beat you by a day, this is my post from late Friday.

As I quoted, "However, the behaviour of Canadian vortex (trough?) incoming from the North Atlantic could yet force ever stronger heights ahead of it towards our North. This is where my prediction of more solid heights towards our NNE and NE (Scandinavia region) comes in and if we look at the D8 chart for the 13th December I threw in for a laugh on Monday's post; we can see how the ECM handled that aspect at the time."

Let's not count our chickens, but my next watch period surely has to be the days immediately prior to Christmas. Here's hoping my look due North and due East quote from the other day is also a good portent. A working week of above average Temperatures and patchy rain and drizzle in places before we get there but I am starting to feel a stronger hint of seasonality in the outputs. GAME ON!

 

[tight isobar]

Just quickly..

The ecm 240' is far from dire imo.

The elongated Canadian vortex ( which looks set to leave northern most usa has potential for progress' providing high cell progression noru/ north east into the pole..perhaps evolving to a wrap around. ..thus introducing aneasterly/ pperhaps long fetch 'easterly flow....massive potential again imo.

[Timbo]

2 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Indeed, I'll beat you by a day, this is my post from late Friday.

As I quoted, "However, the behaviour of Canadian vortex (trough?) incoming from the North Atlantic could yet force ever stronger heights ahead of it towards our North. This is where my prediction of more solid heights towards our NNE and NE (Scandinavia region) comes in and if we look at the D8 chart for the 13th December I threw in for a laugh on Monday's post; we can see how the ECM handled that aspect at the time."

Let's not count our chickens, but my next watch period surely has to be the days immediately prior to Christmas. Here's hoping my look due North and due East quote from the other day is also a good portent. A working week of above average Temperatures and patchy rain and drizzle in places before we get there but I am starting to feel a stronger hint of seasonality in the outputs. GAME ON!

 

Great minds think alight

[Banbury]

1 hour ago, offerman said:

Ensembles at a glance

The 16 day GEFS ensemble shows a changeable and mild picture early in the period before a drier and cooler spells develops. Towards the end of the period (28th as 16day glance) there are suggestions of it turning more changeable and milder.

 

TWO seem to think milder....  

 

 

Spot on!

Guess you've read a couple of posts from War Hawk or Shropshire .

 

 The sensible guys from over there tend to know what oranges mean ( 850's) when under a HP situated to the East.

 

Time will tell of course

Edited December 12, 2016 by Banbury

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Tributes and well-wishes regarding the sad passing of Ian McCaskill are being made here:

Nick (and all the moderators), may I humbly suggest that you make an exception to your usual rules at least temporarily. Please allow the tributes from the regulars posters to remain on this thread at least for this evening. This is a sad time for many of us and some of us can briefly share our happy memories. Then you could move all the relevant posts to the "in memoriam" thread tomorrow.

y

Edited December 12, 2016 by Guest

[karlos1983]

Not sure I can see how we get to the GFS later output from this D10 ECM chart. I guess we will need to start looking for signs in the extended ensembles later on.  

very sad News about Ian McCaskill. May he Rest in Peace. Always loved his forecasts. Came across as a genuinely lovely man. 

Edited December 12, 2016 by karlos1983

[Methuselah]

Just now, Nouska said:

Not one of his cold spells, no .... but, 3rd -14th December was one of his warm spells.

Thanks Nouska. I must be getting old!

[Summer Sun]

 

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A nasty old low on tonight's ECM for the north west thankfully at D10

Wouldn't mind that if we cant have snow, I wonder if Nick L or Ian know what windspeeds are like on the SW Flank of that, it could deepen even further by the time it hits land judging by the track, the bad news is the very strongest winds would be too far North for me to be able to experience hurricane force winds.