Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Summer Sun]

ECM and UKMO both have a 1040mb high sat over England and Wales by Sunday could get quite cold at the surface should skies clear overnight

 

Edited December 12, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Singularity]

1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

Ha ha. I was, of course, referring to the *model output* and where it sat previously versus now.

Talking of which: yesterday's Glosea run has suddenly retreated from the stronger zonal/mobile theme into early Jan and is much less bullish now: more blocked members again therein. If today's run does likewise, anticipate some tweaking to wording of UKMO 15-30d outlook, albeit they note ECMWF tonight awaited for comparison anyway.

I suspect shorter/mid-term modifications to lower vortex perturbation (via poleward fluxes for example) may be having a large impact on the extent to which positive zonal anomalies are able to propagate down from the stratosphere, are you by any chance permitted to confirm or deny this i.e. how far does your non-disclosure go exactly?  

Regardless, thanks as always for your insights into Met Office thinking 

Edited December 12, 2016 by Singularity

[Faronstream]

A relatively dry signal this morning for most parts of western europe and this map is for precipiation around 20th to 27th december, probably indicates an oblong and broadly high pressure with the center around western Germany with straight southern winds. I'd rather take dry and mild than wet and mild if we can't get the cold this year

[Yarmy]

1 hour ago, snowsummer said:

Firstly sorry mods if this is wrong thread (strat thread maybe?) but do the models take into account the effects of space weather?  I only ask as where this thread has been quieter of late, I've been attempting to understand the connections between solar winds,polar stratospheric  clouds sunspot numbers etc and the effects on our weather (or more importantly our winters!) could someone please point me in the right direction to learn more? thank you

It's worth having a trawl through the Solar and Aurora Activity thread:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/21-space-science-amp-nature/

Here's a good example with perhaps some relevance to the current winter:

 

 

[Devonshire]

1 hour ago, snowsummer said:

I've been attempting to understand the connections between solar winds,polar stratospheric  clouds sunspot numbers etc and the effects on our weather (or more importantly our winters!) could someone please point me in the right direction to learn more? thank you

Hi SS - I started a thread on this a week or two back:

 

 

[knocker]

The ext EPS means this morning are looking at a mid Atlantic trough with HP to the east/south east (not ridging far north) thus a SW upper flow with temps a little above average. Sidney has some Figgie Duff on order for the barby

Edited December 12, 2016 by knocker

[fergieweather]

16 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I suspect shorter/mid-term modifications to lower vortex perturbation (via poleward fluxes for example) may be having a large impact on the extent to which positive zonal anomalies are able to propagate down from the stratosphere, are you by any chance permitted to confirm or deny this i.e. how far does your non-disclosure go exactly?  

Regardless, thanks as always for your insights into Met Office thinking 

They note: "...an emerging signal for at least some lower tropospheric mobility to N of UK but with little mobility at upper levels...in the longer term, with a strengthened stratospheric polar vortex, this may result in increased mobility late December-early January, but latest GloSea products/anomalies are now less clear cut with this...".

[Dennis]

wave2 and GFS para

 

 

[legritter]

Morning all ,it looks to me that we are now entering a period of uncertainty past the 168 hr mark .

looking at this mornings ECM in its later stages it does look like some sort of Zonal could win out next week .I say uncertainty but i am quite aware theres always that past 168 hrs . And at this range high pressure could become Anchored to our east with any Zonal being derailed way to our north . If i may just mention the christ mas period and still way to early at 13 days away , but i do have a gut feeling that our rather mundane synoptic situation will be replaced in about 10 days time ,but with what i have NO clue ,the weather does seem to be a very quick /Quick change Artist , so perhaps something is brewing , Thanks to Fergieweather for  putting some meat on the bones , wish i could add some myself ,cheers gang , 

[Dennis]

GFS6z at the moment

[carinthian]

2 minutes ago, Dennis said:

GFS6z at the moment

Massive block over Southern Scandinavia for Christmas period on the run. A cold surface flow for many. Should cheer a few up on here at least!

[Banbury]

Quite a blocked signal which is what Ian hinted this morning

[swfc]

Just now, Banbury said:

Quite a blocked signal which is what Ian hinted this morning

Indeed subtle changes on the 6z to the east.Could be things are a changing!!!!

[Northern Sky]

2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Massive block over Southern Scandinavia for Christmas period on the run. A cold surface flow for many. Should cheer a few up on here at least!

Yes I'd bank the 06z at this stage. Lots of dry chilly weather and some places would be white with frost. In the absence of snow, it would be a good second best.

[Scandinavian High.]

Here comes a Christmas easterly I  do think some surprises are on way we may not get a white Christmas but something is cooking and it's not my Christmas dinner yet . 

Edited December 12, 2016 by abbie123

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, abbie123 said:

Here comes a Christmas easterly .

With crappy 0c uppers though.

[fromey]

8 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Quite a blocked signal which is what Ian hinted this morning

Would the low south of Greenland slip under? ?? Negative tilt going on??

[Singularity]

So... signals look inconclusive longer-term but that's not a whole lot worse than the inconsistency for even the coming week; temperature and rainfall details have been dancing about like a man on hot coals. Then we have the issue as to how much inroads the Atlantic makes later on next week... unsurprising to see ECM more progressive given its lack of Pacific MJO signal.

[Scandinavian High.]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

With crappy 0c uppers though.

Just need push that high bit further north then we are in freezer. 

[Summer Sun]

1050mb high building to our east as we end 2016

Most of the UK has pressure no lower than 1040mb

Edited December 12, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Dennis]

all the diff in the models has to be found in this - so watch next days what the line says

MJO charts GFS/EC

 

[karyo]

The key with the GFS, especially the 6z, is lower pressure in the Med which helps bring surface cold westwards.

In fact, some high rainfall totals are expected in parts of the Med, especially eastern Spain and Italy. Enough to cause flooding I would have thought.

[Seasonality]

7 minutes ago, Dennis said:

all the diff in the models has to be found in this - so watch next days what the line says

MJO charts GFS/EC

 

Are there verification stats for GFS vs ECM MJO output?

[karlos1983]

A 1050mb high is nice and all that, but it just sums up our luck really. Wrong orientation and to far south to really deliver the goods. But I will take it over mild mush any day of the week. 

[Dennis]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Are there verification stats for GFS vs ECM MJO output?

what you exactly mean ? Is it you like to see model output or something else?