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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

One has to say the Canadian vortex is pretty impressive towards the end of the ecm run. Not only is there a huge amount of energy shooting east across Greenland and Iceland but also troughs tracking SE around it across N. America introducing more very cold air. This results in a pretty flat pattern with a strong westerly Pacific jet but the Atlantic arm, although equally strong , is diverted NE thanks to the continuation of the Azores amplification which creates the very strong thermal gradient with aforementioned cold air the north west. I think at the moment we should be grateful for this.

ecm_z500a_5d_nh_11.png

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
12 minutes ago, Interitus said:

No the chart doesn't show strat warming, it shows a fall in eddy momentum flux or wave activity in other words. The corresponding 60°N wind chart show the opposite of deceleration -

50-70 wind.png

 

For those trying to learn could you clarify what that means. 

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27 minutes ago, Interitus said:

No the chart doesn't show strat warming, it shows a fall in eddy momentum flux or wave activity in other words. The corresponding 60°N wind chart show the opposite of deceleration -

50-70 wind.png

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, stewfox said:

For those trying to learn could you clarify what that means. 

Reds show zonal wind increase so its a crap chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
8 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Sidney's reaction to 1040mb coming his way::D

IMG_0849.PNG

IMG_0848.PNG

He's hoping it hangs on in there against the onslaught from the vortex but he has his doubts. I think he's had an early look at the ext ens :shok:

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Yeah then run the chart shows a significant  deceleration of the zonal wind - usually as a result of a warming...

Where is this chart steve so I can look for myself please?

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Good evening the charts are pretty much the same as earlier.

Mid lat block cool surface temperature possible frost at night not a chance the zonal train come in at least 10 days or more.

 

I wouldn't rule out a southeast flow around Christmas. 

ECM has been moving slowly towards the gfs it's far from over.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

So..the form horse is for a strong surge from the azores high by next weekend which merges with the euro high and strengthens an anticyclonic grip on the uk according to the 12z Ecm / Gfs. Longevity wise the gfs looks better although even though the ecm beyond day 10 indicates a weak atlantic incursion, it would probably be short lived with high pressure building in again..so, a gradual change to more settled conditions is on the cards with sunny spells and variable cloud with night frosts and fog returning where skies clear.

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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28 minutes ago, Interitus said:

No the chart doesn't show strat warming, it shows a fall in eddy momentum flux or wave activity in other words. The corresponding 60°N wind chart show the opposite of deceleration -

50-70 wind.png

 

No worries

having never seen that link image before it looked like a sudden warming with negative anomalies- however you must know the link -

As its WAvF then yes - a significant decrease in wave flux indicates a strong increase in zonal winds-

we new that anyway- 

I wonder if the OP actually knows what he was linking

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A verdict on tonights outputs. ZZZZZZZZZZZ

Just looking within T240hrs generally its chase the high around with a generally flat as a pancake jet all the way into the Pacific. The ECM at T240hrs then adds insult to injury by trying to bring  the Siberian high into play although its a slight improvement overall from the 00hrs horror show. Cue more utter tedium!

The ECM 's Freddie Kruger rating drops from 9/10 to 8/10. The GFS within T240hrs remains at emergency code red 10/10. Code red is my new rating which is seen as dangerous to the mental well being of coldies.

Overall theres a frightening level of consistency in the outputs which we don't want to see because this means the signal is strong, at a stretch the ECM has a few moments in its output which raised my interest level and woke me briefly from the model induced coma, sadly this didn't last long.

For coldies I'm afraid theres not much excitement on the horizon barring the odd frost when skies clear. Theres still time though to save Christmas and I've seen some desperate outputs in the past throwing up a change which seemed very unlikely. So I'll try to end on that more positive note!

Nick it's not that bad actually, high pressure with surface cold bringing frosty nights and crisp bright days apart from where fog persists..chin up :reindeer-emoji:

LOL why on earth am I saying chin up..you're not even in the uk to enjoy it!:D

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m

not seeing much frost from those charts for us up here in Scotland, Ski industry has had a worst start than last year!!! :-( 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nick it's not that bad actually, high pressure with surface cold bringing frosty nights and crisp bright days apart from where fog persists..chin up :reindeer-emoji:

LOL why on earth am I saying chin up..you're not even in the uk to enjoy it!:D

Its the same weather down here minus the surface cold at the moment! I actually had to water the plants today! The mountains look pretty sad, there is some snow on them but the snow line is much higher than what you'd expect. My husky ride looks like being postponed until further notice! although the models do develop some lower heights over Spain which might drift north later bring something although I won't hold my breath. Fingers crossed we see some changes for Christmas.

 

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
3 minutes ago, johncam said:

not seeing much frost from those charts for us up here in Scotland, Ski industry has had a worst start than last year!!! :-( 

correct you will not see much frost from +10 uppers dull and cloudy sums it up unless the models lower the uppers nearer the time that is

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Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

As an eternal optimist, even i am struggling to find positives tonight. It has to get better soon. The only positive so far is that February 1991 came out of a similarly poor situation

archivesnh-1991-1-15-0-0.png

all the signs were there this time, despite what some might say, the seasonal forecasts were justifiably good for our winter. I still think we have a good chance at a decent winter. After all, it's only really started so plenty of time for changes.

Right now though, it seems like we have fallen into a barrel of t*ts and come out sucking our thumbs!

Sounds even worse than last winter,least then we had loads of potential to enjoy:D

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