Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

from IDO

I think we can get lost in the anomalies and the reality. For instance the D10 ECM mean anomalies suggest close to a Scandi HP, yet in reality its the continuation of the Euro High:

Perhaps you are getting hung up on definitions. When is a .... high a such and such?

The main feature, and a consistent one of the 500mb anomaly charts is where the centre of gravity of the upper high is predicted to be.over sw Norway not central Europe, see the Met Fax chart for its current position. Perhaps not unlike the Azores high, which with the right upper air conditions moves to Scandinavia.

The end result will be little rain (or snow for that matter) away from the NW of the country, frost and perhaps some fog at night depending on cloud cover. Temperatures below normal, again depending on overnight cloud cover, perhaps down to the official 'rather cold' category.

My take of course, your take is just as valid, but it is rather like an old record IDO, it plays the same tune as you do try and distort what the models say to give a 'mild' slant, usually not always.

HI

i was referring to the D10 mean not the upcoming week where I agree the core heights are close to Norway; but that has been forecast to sink for days so I cannot see at D10 that being centered in its current position. The tweet I referenced was for after D10 not next week. So you think that after D10 the heights will be further north than the mean charts from all the models are currently forecasting?

thanks.

Edited December 11, 2016 by IDO

[Banbury]

Chilly under the HP

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Chilly under the HP

Yup..........Better..GFS..

[Banbury]

Wouldn't take much to get that cold air across us under the HP

[Banbury]

Cold temps across most of the UK

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Cold temps across most of the UK

One positive from the model output today is that the pressure is lower in the Med which helps bring a continental flow to the UK.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

MJO Phase 7 here we go, one of the best phases for cold set ups, doesn't always correlate that easily tho 

 

Not a high enough amplitude.

[SMU]

Morning All

A slightly more festive 06z with the Day 7 atlantic WAA getting a slightly higher amplitude leading the UK to hold colder air..

small crumbs- 

xmas period still 'possible' interest ....

[Carl46Wrexham]

13 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Cold temps across most of the UK

Very seasonal. Dry and cold. That will do very nicely. If we can't have snow, then for me dry and cold runs it a good solid close second.

[blizzard81]

11 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Cold temps across most of the UK

It's going to start feeling very seasonal again. This is why I was banging on about how important it was to see the sceuro block hold out and stop the atlantic from steaming through. I am very happy with the output this morning. It has moved away from importing the tropical like southwesterlies to the north west of the UK as the block is anchored more favourably thus importing continental air.

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It's going to start feeling very seasonal again. This is why I was banging on about how important it was to see the sceuro block hold out and stop the atlantic from steaming through. I am very happy with the output this morning. It has moved away from importing the tropical like southwesterlies to the north west of the UK as the block is anchored more favourably thus importing continental air.

I agree , it will do for me

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

39 minutes ago, IDO said:

HI

i was referring to the D10 mean not the upcoming week where I agree the core heights are close to Norway; but that has been forecast to sink for days so I cannot see at D10 that being centered in its current position. The tweet I referenced was for after D10 not next week. So you think that after D10 the heights will be further north than the mean charts from all the models are currently forecasting?

thanks.

Isn't that always the case with mean charts though (beyond day 10)?  I was led to believe they more often than not revert back to the status quo?

I think that looking at a mean chart past day 10 and putting any stock in it is really quite futile - especially when the outlook keeps chopping and changing as it is now.

And no I am not suggesting that anything cold and snowy is likely to appear in the next 10 days just that your obsession with the sinking high scenario and the jet riding over the top seems bizarre given the uncertainty in the models at present.

I have no problem with mild rampers as they have just as much right to post as the coldies but when you dismiss any other solution at such a range I think some context needs to be added such that the evolution you are describing is your opinion or hope cast rather than almost being passed off as fact?

Anyway more runs needed as they say.

A cold and frosty Christmas will do me just fine and that looks more than possible given the amount of blocking currently being shown in the outlook.  

Edited December 11, 2016 by Kentish Snowman

[MR EXTREMES]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

A slightly more festive 06z with the Day 7 atlantic WAA getting a slightly higher amplitude leading the UK to hold colder air..

small crumbs- 

xmas period still 'possible' interest ....

theres no doubt this could be a creeper and a slow evolution but most certainly 50/50 that beyond christmas this could progress to much better colder evolution.

im quietly confident after a very frustrating prozac dominated week or more.

i do believe theres undercuts coming and cold air to our east and southeast nowhere near a done deal.

as for the ecm 16 uppers absolute rubbish.

and as matt said looks like the gfs has been a little ahead of the ecm,

mid lat block is a cert,

where it goes beyond is very fickle.

one thing to note is the zonal train is stuck at its station and could be there for some time if heights can move futher north northwest or north east so many possibilities but classic zonal is not likely.

[daz_4]

Well, northern blocking is there so I guess we can't complain  

As many said at least it will be seasonal. I was very pessimistic in the morning but it could be worse. After all the temps will be below average at 2m for majority of Europe. Vortex looks very happy so I will gladly stay hidden under HP for the time being.

[Catacol]

Morning all. Key chart for me is the GWO forecast at the moment. Can't easily post the full package here, but if you go to the university of Albany page you can see the modelling recorded for each of the last 5 days and get a sense of prediction v reality. Today's chart here

 

Note the actual transition is working back towards phase 5 without going negative at all. But the forecasts continue to want to move into a Nina like low AAM state.Very clear to me that the models continue to struggle to read the global momentum budget accurately. Not sure why this would be the case - Tamara will know more - but the implication is that the models are seeing a more flat pattern than will actually occur. MJO moving towards phase 6-7-8 will only help to promote more amplification, low amplitude or not.

So as stated before I'm not going to change my view until the drivers change, and for now they are still in place. The ridge forecast to sit with its core over Southern Norway to me is likely to be at a higher latitude than this, and accounting for steeper wavelengths I'd shift it a bit further west.

In terms of timing I don't think much has changed either. This process starts mid month and will evolve from there. The dice haven't quite rolled for us yet, but if this general prognosis can stay on track then at some stage, before too long, wintry potential may follow.

Edited December 11, 2016 by Catacol

[johnholmes]

54 minutes ago, IDO said:

HI

i was referring to the D10 mean not the upcoming week where I agree the core heights are close to Norway; but that has been forecast to sink for days so I cannot see at D10 that being centered in its current position. The tweet I referenced was for after D10 not next week. So you think that after D10 the heights will be further north than the mean charts from all the models are currently forecasting?

thanks.

The only model I use after D10 is the NOAA 8-14, although I do scan through whatever is available prior to posting, see in my post, that suggests yes

 

 

[Methuselah]

I'm certainly glad that the GFS ain't the be all and end all; this morning's offering isn't all that inspiring, to say the least...Over to the acronyms, I think...

[offerman]

13 hours ago, mhielte said:

I'd be more concerned if it was Christmas tomorrow.

As it happens, it's two weeks away, so put the kettle on and stop worrying

Very True , You are right. At least people aren't being flooded out.  

I enjoy the sun and warmth too.  I just dislike weeks of relentless wind and rain so anything else other than that it's nice.  

[offerman]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

becoming a bit of a borefest now the model and nhp output.its amazing once this set up is in place that you almost know whats coming before you check the models!!id love to hear from some of the pros ete how or when they think a change arrive???.

Absoloutely spot on!  It's what I was trying to say recently that when a euro hi gets fixed in place it's very hard to budget out of the way for different weather types it's a very strong and stagnant whether type  so much so that it just force is the jet stream over the top .  On the plus side it can deliver some nice sunny days and relative warmth as well .

  I'm a huge fan of the snow and cold and remember the winters of the 1980s  but if we get son wants that's not too bad . 

 

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, offerman said:

Absoloutely spot on!  It's what I was trying to say recently that when a euro hi gets fixed in place it's very hard to budget out of the way for different weather types it's a very strong and stagnant whether type  so much so that it just force is the jet stream over the top .  On the plus side it can deliver some nice sunny days and relative warmth as well .

  I'm a huge fan of the snow and cold and remember the winters of the 1980s  but if we get son wants that's not too bad . 

 

For an Eskimo that's Summer I guess

You wont get much warmth for the high GFS is offering , which is good

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

For an Eskimo that's Summer I guess

You wont get much warmth for the high GFS is offering , which is good

Indeed

Also noticed a couple of ice days for the far SE on this run

C.S

[markw2680]

I can't help but think that there's going to be big changes going forward, personally think the south will start to feel raw in the breeze and gradually the high will move slowly NW, then things will start to look good around Xmas time. Who knows that video posted couple of weeks ago of gavs may come true....you never no

[Blizzard 63]

Cold frosty Xmas week will do me fine

[fergieweather]

19 minutes ago, Catacol said:

In terms of timing I don't think much has changed either. This process starts mid month and will evolve from there. The dice haven't quite rolled for us yet, but if this general prognosis can stay on track then at some stage, before too long, wintry potential may follow.

As (post-00z) UKMO assessment stresses, little has really changed over last 24hrs in terms of resolving the ongoing uncertainty further into December. The marked ensemble spread into mid-month onwards is where confidence begins to quickly unravel, with - as UKMO describe it - "larger scale diagnostics favouring a more mobile pattern developing towards the end of December and early January, with the Christmas period falling in the tricky transitional period between that and the current, slow moving regime. As such, we are no clearer as to the Christmas forecast at this time." 

How long this impasse remains, in terms of very low forecast confidence, is anyone's guess.

[Methuselah]

Come on guys? What's new? I torture myself over yet another mundane-looking GFS run only to discover that an epidemic of optimism has suddenly pervaded the thread...Perhaps I missed something whilst watching all those goals, on MoTD, last night?

Come on peeps - what gives?