Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Jammydodger]

25 minutes ago, igloo said:

very strong agreement  between the GFS and ECM now at 168h at least its dry and mild instead of rain and mild we may have to wait till next year for something better sadly

 

You must be psychic because there are 3 weeks of December left..

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's a recurring theme deep in FI. Need to see it start moving closer now.

The GFS/GEFS are determined to build a wedge of heights to our N/NE towards Christmas.

I wonder if the ecm ens are sniffing this at the extended range?

[The Eagle]

Looks like Cyprus may have a better chance of a white Christmas this year. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_312_2.png

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unfortunately the models are consistent which is a bad sign. Upstream the pattern just becomes flatter and the PV reforms into one large foreboding blob at T240hrs. You'd be hard pressed to find a flatter pattern all the way to Japan. Dire is being kind!

I'm afraid we've been here before many times so this type of crud output has been all too common in recent winters. There maybe some surface cold but as for snow you'd have more chance on the beaches of Greece and Turkey.

No point in trying to spin this type of output, we just have to hope for some changes ASAP!

 

If the models still look like this at christmas I think a front loaded winter will be unlikely!

[Singularity]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

. Upstream the pattern just becomes flatter and the PV reforms into one large foreboding blob at T240hrs. You'd be hard pressed to find a flatter pattern all the way to Japan. Dire is being kind!

You seem to be imagining more flatness than there is; there's a trough digging down in the western N Atlantic at that timeframe and look what it led to a few days later - not surprising given the MJO forcing.

The vortex regrouping continues to look very transient. MJO less clear due to the stubborn ECM ens.

[bobbydog]

Here's some food for thought- 

Some striking similarities at around the 240 mark on the GFS and ECM (model agreement???...)

Now of course that's where the ECM run ends, so follow on via the GFS-

Vast majority of the vortex is now over on the Siberian side...

This game (winter) is far from over....

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

If the models still look like this at christmas I think a front loaded winter will be unlikely!

The front loaded winter has sunk already. Theres zip chance of anything in the next ten days which takes it to around the 20th, then any changes upstream will take time to work down stream. We might get lucky around Christmas but even if by some miracle it turned colder then effectively front loaded has morphed into middle loaded!

I hope my zip comment comes back to haunt me but really its hard to make a case for anything other than scraping some surface cold. Cold uppers and snow would need a miracle of Biblical proportions.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The front loaded winter has sunk already. Theres zip chance of anything in the next ten days which takes it to around the 20th, then any changes upstream will take time to work down stream. We might get lucky around Christmas but even if by some miracle it turned colder then effectively front loaded has morphed into middle loaded!

I hope my zip comment comes back to haunt me but really its hard to make a case for anything other than scraping some surface cold. Cold uppers and snow would need a miracle of Biblical proportions.

Agreed Nick, it looks like we are again going to be scraping the dregs from the bottom of the barrel judging by the latest models but of course things could be a whole lot worse..couldn't they?

[damianslaw]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

At T360hrs what could possibly go wrong? lol I think the Christmas weather is still too far out and so regardless of tonights model horror show you just never know whether something might pop up. However we don't have much time to play with and theres nothing worse than mild mush around Chrtistmas.

I suspect simply due to the timescales, today's charts are prone to offering the least hopeful prospects of anything colder emerging, but int he days to come this will change. Its a good weekend to switch off from them, for anyone wanting to see some colder uppers - come back in a weeks time.

 

I'll go further and day the ECM output beyond 240 hrs much more likely to make for depressing viewing if your after colder conditions, a much weakened jet, strong ridge, most likely to build northwards in the days thereafter - i.e over christmas, please keep some perspective, we are not staring at inevitable atlantic zonal mild flow, far from it, hold some patience.

Edited December 10, 2016 by damianslaw

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

You seem to be imagining more flatness than there is; there's a trough digging down in the western N Atlantic at that timeframe and look what it led to a few days later - not surprising given the MJO forcing.

The vortex regrouping continues to look very transient. MJO less clear due to the stubborn ECM ens.

Really! lol Am I missing something, within the T240hrs timeframe you can go all the way clockwise to Japan and its hard to find a flatter jet. Yes there might be that attempted dig upstream briefly and then a bit later when the GFS throws a few crumbs but really I'd need to be on drugs to find anything remotely positive to say about the GFS 18hrs run. In terms of the PV regrouping and that being transient I hope you're right. I'm not saying something won't pop up around Christmas because theres still just enough time for that but we need to see concrete consistent changes within T240hrs which count down.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

but really I'd need to be on drugs to find anything remotely positive to say about the GFS 18hrs run.

That's the spirit Nick, stay positive!

[nick sussex]

10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I suspect simply due to the timescales, today's charts are prone to offering the least hopeful prospects of anything colder emerging, but int he days to come this will change. Its a good weekend to switch off from them, for anyone wanting to see some colder uppers - come back in a weeks time.

 

I'll go further and day the ECM output beyond 240 hrs much more likely to make for depressing viewing if your after colder conditions, a much weakened jet, strong ridge, most likely to build northwards in the days thereafter - i.e over christmas, please keep some perspective, we are not staring at inevitable atlantic zonal mild flow, far from it, hold some patience.

Perspective, I'm just telling it like it is. I think most members are now getting fed up with patience. If the outputs start improving I will be happy to report that. And If I want to be miserable I will be, are you the mood police? lol

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Really! lol Am I missing something, within the T240hrs timeframe you can go all the way clockwise to Japan and its hard to find a flatter jet. Yes there might be that attempted dig upstream briefly and then a bit later when the GFS throws a few crumbs but really I'd need to be on drugs to find anything remotely positive to say about the GFS 18hrs run. In terms of the PV regrouping and that being transient I hope you're right. I'm not saying something won't pop up around Christmas because theres still just enough time for that but we need to see concrete consistent changes within T240hrs which count down.

I believe we are at a low point model wise for colder prospects, and the days ahead will bring more positive affair - law of average what goes down must come up etc- sorry if this kind of post should be reserved for the model mood thread. I'm much more positive about colder prospects compared to this time last year, indeed probably since 2012, the atlantic has little fire power in it.

[Carl46Wrexham]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That's the spirit Nick, stay positive!

Having had a look at the GFS 18z run...and having been sick in my mouth just a little bit, can we please put an end to the talk of the front loaded winter. It ain't panning out like that. Not one damn bit.

Edited December 10, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Having had a look at the GFS 18z run...and having been sick in my mouth just a little bit, can we please put an end to the front loaded winter nonsense? Because that's what it damn well looks like.

Diabolical Gfs 18z, no way to sugar coat it with the best chart at T+384 hours and that isn't up to much.

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I believe we are at a low point model wise for colder prospects, and the days ahead will bring more positive affair - law of average what goes down must come up etc- sorry if this kind of post should be reserved for the model mood thread. I'm much more positive about colder prospects compared to this time last year, indeed probably since 2012, the atlantic has little fire power in it.

Lmao! Your post really made me laugh. It was the " I believe we are at a low point model wise for colder prospects" you don't say! Thankyou Damian. Yes we've seen these types of outputs in the past and so its nothing new and we can still salvage Christmas. Lets see what the next few days brings.

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, lorenzo said:

Had a week off from models - positive NAO brings out the very best and very worst of times.

10 days in and our front loaded cold forecast looks shot to pieces, given winter is DJF - then you can continue to split hairs on is this 01 Dec > 15 Jan etc.

For me no cosying up or denial, stuff is wrong. The vortex intensification is wild and blocking via ensembles and longer range outlook is still there!

Completely off the hook.. few things about the forecast I want to call out and really they are quite simple..

Wildcards - we have them - the QBO easterly shear zones have switched within the last Vortex Intensification period, that Solar NAO caveat is in everyones face right now.

MJO - Indian Ocean is like cinema and popcorn just now ( includes cyclones).

Seasonal and Agency modelling... huge questions, you write a forecast then have a theory and look for support - 4 months of ECM consistency, UKMO support and no other models in strong disagreement. Then. Whooosh. If that's not a Wildcard winter then I dont know..

For front loaded cold am still halfway point is mid Jan, I don't care to finesse the forecast any further. It's a rotten start but I genuinely feel not the full story this winter. It's only 10 Dec. Will review all on appropriate thread later.

 

Hats off to you for being so brutally honest. But it's only 10 days in to Winter and a lot can change, even in the next 10 days.

[Mucka]

ECM ensembles pretty bad, no way around that. (2m temps)

GFS 18z ensembles still show some blocking interest from around day 10 though. 

Not sure how many of those eCM runs show blocking but no cold uppers.

Edited December 10, 2016 by Mucka

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Lmao! Your post really made me laugh. It was the " I believe we are at a low point model wise for colder prospects" you don't say! Thankyou Damian. Yes we've seen these types of outputs in the past and so its nothing new and we can still salvage Christmas. Lets see what the next few days brings.

Yes we've become accustomed to these outputs in many of our recent winters, indeed at this stage in the past 5 winters, its quite normal service, However, as seasoned model watchers, we should always expect the unexpected at anytime in the year. Always worth looking at the archives from yesteryear when a seemingly endless zonal flow has been disbanded in an instant.

 

My believe is still the ridge over Europe will hold back the atlantic in time for christmas and ridge northwards creating much more favourable conditions for colder conditions thereafter, not talking deep cold uppers and snow, but something resembling late Nov/early Dec - very plausible. Expecting the models to show such developments in the days ahead, but as I said because such developments are outside the 240 hr timeframe right now, we can't expect them too. 

[01.03.18]

First post, been lurking for a good few years and created an account as all the hype was building around the upcoming winter. I must admit it isn't looking good for fans of cold weather although it could all turn on a knife edge - but being the eternal pessimist I have my doubts. I've had a keen interest in all things meteorological for quite a while and it was one of the reasons that I enrolled in university to study Earth Science.

Would like to take this opportunity to thank all who post in the forum, especially the more knowledgeable members as the knowledge they thanklessly pass on is invaluable.

Plan on taking a break from the forum for a while to study for exams and await the inevitable updates from a coldies perspective (the only way is up from here... surely ).

GM.

[radiohead]

I'm dreaming of a...Perturbation 3 Christmas?

 

Edited December 10, 2016 by radiohead

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

I'm dreaming of a...Perurbation 3 Christmas?

 

One of only two runs that get any cold uppers to us so it is only a dream at the moment I'm afraid. Still two runs is more than none. 

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM ensembles pretty bad, no way around that. (2m temps)

GFS 18z ensembles still show some blocking interest from around day 10 though. 

Not sure how many of those eCM runs show blocking but no cold uppers.

Are they that bad Mucka? I say we have a table and A LOT of options on it! Get next week out the way, hopefully things will seem I little more positive 

 

[Penrith Snow]

This December reminds me of many in the past 3 decades including 1988 and 2006 and to be honest it's difficult t see a way out of this pattern.

The PV is now almost entrenched over Canada while the Euro Slug seems resilient to any attack, you can point to any tele connections you want but until the basics change the outlook for cold will remain very poor.

I would now like to see a reset of the NH profile with the collapse of the Euro High and a return to moderate zonality, at least then we would have the prospect of a two or three day toppled and a potential rise of pressure to the NW.

This current set up was never going to result in a Scandinavia High and a reset is our only option.

Without it a winter like 1988/89 could be on the cards.

Andy

[Hotspur62]

Well Models still really not showing one thing or the other( i.e zonal train or strong enough blocking to give us a nice feed from the East). As a result we are in a relatively quiet period of weather with temps a little above the average for the next 5 days for most of the UK. After that there is still uncertainty about what is likely to happen but it looks unlikely to turn cold imho as Heights to the North/NW or NE dont seem strong enough to somehow encourage the cold to move westwards from Eastern Europe along with the old chestnut with no lowering of heights in The med.Shame as the Jet isnt that strong at the moment but things just not happening atm for cold and snow fans.The dreaded P word is going to be needed for a wee bit longer!!