Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[knocker]

There is nothing strikingly different between this evening's anomalies with reference too the upstream pattern except the EPS has the Aleutian HP/vortex/troughs a tad further east. This would appear to make the difference with the ridging to the east of the UK between the EPS on the one hand and NOAA/GEFS on the other. The latter have the ridge slightly more amplified with the surface centre probably around southern Norway whilst the EPS has ridging to the south east of the UK with perhaps the centre to the south. Thus perhaps an upper flow slightly more veered than the other two and therefore systems tracking further south. It's all a bit knife edgy.

As we move into the ext period there are changes upstream as the Aleutian ridge has declined except with NOAA but the vortex and trough(s) are still in rude health although the disagreement with orientation between the EPS and the GEFS is still ongoing which probably accounts for the continuing dispute vis the HP adjacent to the UK. NOAA and the GEFS are still quite amplified with positive anomalies over Scandinavia whilst the EPS remains flatter. So we are still looking at a SW upper flow but quite weak over southern Britain and one couldn't exclude the latter coming under the influence of the surface high. This probably wouldn't be the case with the EPS

Edited December 10, 2016 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

20 minutes ago, knocker said:

There is nothing strikingly different between this evening's anomalies with reference too the upstream pattern except the EPS has the Aleutian HP/vortex/troughs a tad further east. This would appear to make the difference with the ridging to the east of the UK between the EPS on the one hand and NOAA/GEFS on the other. The latter have the ridge slightly more amplified with the surface centre probably around southern Norway whilst the EPS has ridging to the south east of the UK with perhaps the centre to the south. Thus perhaps an upper flow slightly more veered than the other two and therefore systems tracking further south. It's all a bit knife edgy.

As we move into the ext period there are changes upstream as the Aleutian ridge has declined except with NOAA but the vortex and trough(s) are still in rude health although the disagreement with orientation between the EPS and the GEFS is still ongoing which probably accounts for the continuing dispute vis the HP adjacent to the UK. NOAA and the GEFS are still quite amplified with positive anomalies over Scandinavia whilst the EPS remains flatter. So we are still looking at a SW upper flow but quite weak over southern Britain and one couldn't exclude the latter coming under the influence of the surface high. This probably wouldn't be the case with the EPS

Would be interested to hear JH's thoughts on the latter NOAA. I've seen easterlies on the basis of a chart like that before, esp in S England.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO at t168 looks like it's going for a south westerly with some rain in the west

[offerman]

Charts still showing a mild Christmas on the way  :-( 

[knocker]

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Would be interested to hear JH's thoughts on the latter NOAA. I've seen easterlies on the basis of a chart like that before, esp in S England.

That's what I meant by coming under the influence of the surface high although I was thinking more south easterlies

[mhielte]

7 minutes ago, offerman said:

Charts still showing a mild Christmas on the way  :-( 

I'd be more concerned if it was Christmas tomorrow.

As it happens, it's two weeks away, so put the kettle on and stop worrying

[Dennis]

the stratospheric PV sees a poss split on the 50hpa

[lorenzo]

Had a week off from models - positive NAO brings out the very best and very worst of times.

10 days in and our front loaded cold forecast looks shot to pieces, given winter is DJF - then you can continue to split hairs on is this 01 Dec > 15 Jan etc.

For me no cosying up or denial, stuff is wrong. The vortex intensification is wild and blocking via ensembles and longer range outlook is still there!

Completely off the hook.. few things about the forecast I want to call out and really they are quite simple..

Wildcards - we have them - the QBO easterly shear zones have switched within the last Vortex Intensification period, that Solar NAO caveat is in everyones face right now.

MJO - Indian Ocean is like cinema and popcorn just now ( includes cyclones).

Seasonal and Agency modelling... huge questions, you write a forecast then have a theory and look for support - 4 months of ECM consistency, UKMO support and no other models in strong disagreement. Then. Whooosh. If that's not a Wildcard winter then I dont know..

For front loaded cold am still halfway point is mid Jan, I don't care to finesse the forecast any further. It's a rotten start but I genuinely feel not the full story this winter. It's only 10 Dec. Will review all on appropriate thread later.

 

[Ali1977]

I think a projected failed front loaded Winter is nearly as depressing as a 2015 winter, luckily we have no idea what to expect for Jan and Feb so maybe some surprises still in store!! This latest Run has the block holding 100 miles maybe further West, I can't see it holding on and creating anything decent but just putting it out there!!

[radiohead]

Well, no sliding low on the 18Z....

 

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Well, no sliding low on the 18Z....

 

 Nope, that ship has sailed. Shame 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

 Nope, that ship has sailed. Shame 

Yeah I think that was a cert, I just want some full on Zonal and reset this pattern now.

[Cleeve Hill]

Remember it is still early winter. Any high in Europe will lead to colder and colder temperatures setting in over time and so long as the High does not shift too far south (there are no signs of this), then sooner or later an opportunity for it to shift north will occur. Oslo was at 0c today Helsinki -5c so definatley getting cold up there. Svalbard is currently -22c. 

The high stays in the charts for the foreseeable so plenty to hold onto. 

[Carl46Wrexham]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah I think that was a cert, I just want some full on Zonal and reset this pattern now.

No thank you. Full on zonal has a tendency to stick for weeks on end, then before you know it's February.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Big changes from 12z to 18z at just 140 hours I'm new to forum but been taking notice of models etc for over 4 years now but just became a member love the posts on this thread I'm cold wanter in winter and warm wanter in summer I think we just need to relax and wait it will come. When it's. Ready thanks all

Edited December 10, 2016 by weathermadbarnsleylad
PS will be still looking at 00z lol

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

No thank you. Full on zonal has a tendency to stick for weeks on end, then before you know it's February.

Yeah your probably right, and this would feel nice and chilly on a night time I'm sure. 

[igloo]

very strong agreement  between the GFS and ECM now at 168h at least its dry and mild instead of rain and mild we may have to wait till next year for something better sadly

 

[Carl46Wrexham]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah your probably right, and this would feel nice and chilly on a night time I'm sure. 

Wasn't having a dig but watching endless depressions barrelling in from the west whilst worrying about having to fork out for new fence panels and ridge tiles doesn't do it for me personally

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, igloo said:

very strong agreement  between the GFS and ECM now at 168h at least its dry and mild instead of rain and mild we may have to wait till next year for something better sadly

 

A front loaded winter seems unlikely if we have more southwesterly winds to look forward to, or rather not look forward to

Where are the beasterlies and northerlies hiding?

Edited December 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

Unfortunately the models are consistent which is a bad sign. Upstream the pattern just becomes flatter and the PV reforms into one large foreboding blob at T240hrs. You'd be hard pressed to find a flatter pattern all the way to Japan. Dire is being kind!

I'm afraid we've been here before many times so this type of crud output has been all too common in recent winters. There maybe some surface cold but as for snow you'd have more chance on the beaches of Greece and Turkey.

No point in trying to spin this type of output, we just have to hope for some changes ASAP!

 

[Weather Observer]

Thank you to Lorenzo, for a great post. My faith in long term forecasters is restored. And what the Dickens It's only weather.

[igloo]

well this 

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah your probably right, and this would feel nice and chilly on a night time I'm sure. 

well this is the coldest chart i can come up with it says it all frankly lots of cloud

 

[Ali1977]

HP building over Greenland in FI and PV weakening to our NW - could this be another period too look at, I doubt it but you never know. Just in time for Xmas maybe too ❄️

Edited December 10, 2016 by Ali1977

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

HP building over Greenland in FI and PV weakening to our NW - could this be another period too look at, I doubt it but you never know. Just in time for Xmas maybe too ❄️

It's a recurring theme deep in FI. Need to see it start moving closer now.

The GFS/GEFS are determined to build a wedge of heights to our N/NE towards Christmas.

Edited December 10, 2016 by CreweCold

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

HP building over Greenland in FI and PV weakening to our NW - could this be another period too look at, I doubt it but you never know. Just in time for Xmas maybe too ❄️

At T360hrs what could possibly go wrong? lol I think the Christmas weather is still too far out and so regardless of tonights model horror show you just never know whether something might pop up. However we don't have much time to play with and theres nothing worse than mild mush around Chrtistmas.