Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Cheshire Freeze]

Here is the 18z MEAN at 384 hrs...there must be decent members in that lot (I haven't yet checked) but what I find impressive for a mean chart is the whiff of disruption to the trough in the Atlantic

[A.J]

some extremely well thought out posts in here this evening, full of technical analysis yet easy to grasp for the layman (like me)......sadly though as always, a lot of these quality posts are being drowned out by garbage, be it off topic posts, one liners that add nothing, point scoring posts and met office/professional forecaster bashing.......if it's not model related then it does not belong in here. One liners add nothing to the thread apart from misinterpretation and confusion. Point scoring posts just sour the thread and get people's backs up thus risking derailment of the discussion, and lastly having a pop at pro forecasters/pro climatologists is just petty unless backed up with factual and analytical data (good luck with that!).....PS. Meme's whilst amusing (well, I thought they were) aren't really model discussion 

Edited December 9, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[karlos1983]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Still only 1 GEFS member going significantly below -5c 850hpa, all a storm in a teacup and SWerly will be the predominant theme again by tomorrow.

C'mon Feb, I know your probably right from a gut point of view, but compared to a few hours ago things have changed, mad but that's how fluid this is. Nothing's clear cut yet! Surely ! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I've run through the individual perts at 384 hrs. 50%- yes 50% have some form of appreciable northern blocking or immediate route to blocking. That's a significant cluster.

[fergieweather]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Hmmm ... High Pressure over us or slightly to our east, slightly more likely to be south-easterly based (milder) but possibly also north-easterly based?

Actually, sounds ever so slightly like the conundrum posed by the OP runs tonight in the D7-D10 range?

Totally agree. This is why temperature outcome could be finely balanced, for reasons you mention. 

Or of course, it could be just a brisk, mild So'wester and all academic by then.....!!

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still only 1 GEFS member going significantly below -5c 850hpa, all a storm in a teacup and SWerly will be the predominant theme again by tomorrow.

Boooo, pantomine villain lol

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Here is the 18z MEAN at 384 hrs...there must be decent members in that lot (I haven't yet checked) but what I find impressive for a mean chart is the whiff of disruption to the trough in the Atlantic

Crewe I can sense it coming. The models keep wanting to throw up that ridge ... must be a good chance that enough energy will eventually go under, if the pattern persists.

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Here is the 18z MEAN at 384 hrs...there must be decent members in that lot (I haven't yet checked) but what I find impressive for a mean chart is the whiff of disruption to the trough in the Atlantic

That's almost perfect conditions for scandi heights..almost can be far off perfect, but I'm convinced one will establish this season eventually, let's hope we benefit 

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

some extremely well though posts in here this evening, full of technical analysis yet easy to grasp for the layman (like me)......sadly though as always, a lot of these quality posts are being drowned out by garbage, be it off topic posts, one liners that add nothing, point scoring posts and met office/professional forecaster bashing.......if it's not model related then it does not belong in here. One liners add nothing to the thread apart from misinterpretation and confusion. Point scoring posts just sour the thread and get people's backs up thus risking derailment of the discussion, and lastly having a pop at pro forecasters/pro climatologists is just petty unless backed up with factual and analytical data (good luck with that!).....PS. Meme's whilst amusing (well, I thought they were) aren't really model discussion 

Agree, in amongst the doom and gloom mongers, there have been some very balanced and informative posts this evening, and as you say unfortunately they have been drowned out by alot of the type of posts that shouldn't belong in this thread- namely those that write off a whole season just when it is starting based on one model run. I'm a fairly seasoned model watcher and one thing I learnt along time ago is expect the models to flip from one run to the next, its the nature of the game. Its the trends, and background signals and a bit of intuition you need you need to take notice of.

Back to the models, I'm expecting a fair bit of variation in the days ahead as they get to grips with the strength of the ridge to our east, and what I foresee to be a very temporary resurgent jet. 

[feb1991blizzard]

To be fair the one member that goes significantly below the -5c mark actually hits the -15c mark for London!!!!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair the one member that goes significantly below the -5c mark actually hits the -15c mark for London!!!!

 

Ahhhh but the 850s don't always tell the whole story Feb

Edited December 10, 2016 by CreweCold

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair the one member that goes significantly below the -5c mark actually hits the -15c mark for London!!!!

 

Oh no it doesn't 

anyway let's hope more than 1 go sub -10c tomorrow morning. That's me done for the day. Bonjour

Edited December 10, 2016 by karlos1983

[blizzard81]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Oh no it doesn't 

Classic!

[Timmytour]

The GFS 18z has had me picking toys up off the floor to put back into the pram again......

[Decemberof2010]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Ahhhh but the 850s don't always tell the whole story Feb

Wow what a chart to go to sleep on, lol

[Gael_Force]

51 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

To suggest Adam and his team "took eye off ball" out of some deference to an in-house model firstly ignores the cross-model support available to them at the time. Secondly, it's actually quite insulting for a guy who has published or co-authored so many peer-reviewed papers in the field of seasonal to decadal forecasting; SSW's; etc etc. Whatever has gone pear-shaped so far in Dec, I'd wager Adam could explain unhesitatingly. 

Oh dear! I wasn't for a moment referencing the scientists in my comment; they have access to such varied output. I was talking about forum members' expectations and relying wholly on one scenario.

Thanks for the very detailed reply, it has given good insight into the models the Met office use and I know how difficult it must be to try and sort out the different signals. 

[chris pawsey]

Can someone answer if at all possible? How often does Glosea update? I presume it is a long range and respected model (although new) only for Meto eyes and it's predicting a blocked 2nd half of Dec... when does it update?  Also what are the verification stats of the said model? 

Thanks in advanced,

Chris

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, chris pawsey said:

Can someone answer if at all possible? How often does Glosea update? I presume it is a long range and respected model (although new) only for Meto eyes and it's predicting a blocked 2nd half of Dec... when does it update?  Also what are the verification stats of the said model? 

Thanks in advanced,

Chris

I think it's weekly, but we obviously only get insight if Ian shares, which he kindly does when possible 

Edited December 10, 2016 by karlos1983

[blizzard81]

The best, most verifiable scandi high's crop out of nowhere. I stand by that statement By nowhere, I mean 5 to 6 days out. I am a veteran model watcher of 13 years. I have seen an endless number of scandi high's modelled at 10 days plus. I watched them go down to as little as 96hrs (maybe less, 13 years is a long time so forgive me for not remembering lol) only for them to implode before my very eyes at a few days out. Keep the faith

Edited December 10, 2016 by blizzard81

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair the one member that goes significantly below the -5c mark actually hits the -15c mark for London!!!!

 

Only one member but if this is a new trend its got to start somewhere. All eyes on the 00z could be a big one, ECM needs to smell the coffee tomorrow.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think it's weekly 

I thought the GLOSEA updated more regularly, even Daily, maybe I'm wrong.

There wont be verification stats available to the public.

Edited December 10, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[blizzard81]

11 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

The GFS 18z has had me picking toys up off the floor to put back into the pram again......

It's the trend that counts

[Man With Beard]

Now I've just shocked myself - I've just checked every op run - GFS, ECM, JMA, GEM, NAVGEM, ARPEGE, UKMO - and apart from the UKMO they ALL show trough disruption against the block.

That means the GFS 18Z idea is not in the slightest an outlandish one. Indeed, the JMA has arguably a better Scandi high on it. And the UKMO may disrupt later on, maybe?

It will be entirely about how far heights can push north into Scandi. There's a real chance!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I get confused between megreps and glosea5

I think the MOGREPS updates 4 times a  day!!!

[karlos1983]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Now I've just shocked myself - I've just checked every op run - GFS, ECM, JMA, GEM, NAVGEM, ARPEGE, UKMO - and apart from the UKMO they ALL show trough disruption against the block.

That means the GFS 18Z idea is not in the slightest an outlandish one. Indeed, the JMA has arguably a better Scandi high on it. And the UKMO may disrupt later on, maybe?

It will be entirely about how far heights can push north into Scandi. There's a real chance!

 

What about the mighty BOM