Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[snowice]

Just now, mulzy said:

Oh dear.  If this day 9 chart verified and it's a big if, the Met Office's' forecast for a cold December will be shot in flames.  At the moment, it's looking like a very mild December is on the cards. 

At 96hrs the big 3 Gfs UKmo ecm all differ so I wouldn't look past 144hrs at present.I still believe there maybe a twist in outputs in the coming days. 

[swfc]

yet again people cant see the wood for the trees!! there is nothing in any shape or form what looks like happening on the 12z gfs or ecm what will bring any cold weather.you can throw ens out ete but look at the nhp during the next ten days.nao looks ready to go way into the plus zone also

Edited December 9, 2016 by swfc

[Spah1]

4 minutes ago, snowice said:

At 96hrs the big 3 Gfs UKmo ecm all differ so I wouldn't look past 144hrs at present.I still believe there maybe a twist in outputs in the coming days. 

Based on what? 

[A Frayed Knot]

This little snippit form Brian over on TWO = Cold weather probably won't return in mid December. Most of the GEFS ensemble runs show quite a mild air mass aloft and the 2m temperature forecasts suggest it will be quite mild with a temperature inversion unlikely.

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

Based on what? 

If they can't all agree at 96hrs going forward the output could change,  look at the position of the shortwave in mid Atlantic its different on all 3.

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Based on what? 

Based on it cannot get any worse,can it

C.S

[mulzy]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Based on what? 

Hope I would say.  Meanwhile, the medium term NWP outlook is dire for cold.

[mulzy]

Speaking of hope, JMA gives a more blocked scenario.  Outlier?

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by mulzy

[Scandinavian High.]

Can someone tell me where this went terribly wrong it looked so promising a few weeks ago for us to go in to the freezer at some point in December thank you.

[nick sussex]

My brief and to the point run down of the models for cold !

GFS  Terrible

GEM Terrible

UKMO Slight interest at T144hrs, better upstream pattern at that stage.

ECM Terrible but slightly less terrible at T240hrs than the GFS

JMA Has some interest , the best of the nights outputs upto T192hrs however we only wheel it out in desperate times and seeing as we hit Code Red with the GFS/ECM it had to make an appearance!

NAVGEM Mediocre but trending terrible at T180hrs.

 

Overall there are differences upstream with shortwaves running across the USA and moving into the Atlantic, in terms of speed and amplitude and these impact the prospects of getting some energy to head se under the high to the east. At this point unless theres much more sharpness to  troughing to the west then its hard to see an escape from the ECM/GFS horror show.

 

 

[jules216]

It's quite depressing seeing British Isles in such a mild air in the worst possible time,certainly not a festive feeling at all,perhaps the best fitting chart I found is for next Friday courtesy of latest GFS output,cold to the west,bitter to the east and UK plus 6 uppers,

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

My brief and to the point run down of the models for cold !

GFS  Terrible

GEM Terrible

UKMO Slight interest at T144hrs, better upstream pattern at that stage.

ECM Terrible but slightly less terrible at T240hrs than the GFS

JMA Has some interest , the best of the nights outputs upto T192hrs however we only wheel it out in desperate times and seeing as we hit Code Red with the GFS/ECM it had to make an appearance!

NAVGEM Mediocre but trending terrible at T180hrs.

 

Overall there are differences upstream with shortwaves running across the USA and moving into the Atlantic, in terms of speed and amplitude and these impact the prospects of getting some energy to head se under the high to the east. At this point unless theres much more sharpness to  troughing to the west then its hard to see an escape from the ECM/GFS horror show.

 

 

When do we wheel out some CFS charts?  It's getting close to that point I would say...

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Can someone tell me where this went terribly wrong it looked so promising a few weeks ago for us to go in to the freezer at some point in December thank you.

It went wrong pretty much from the time John Hammond did his video on the cold start to winter.

[Matthew.]

 please not Sw'lies. Some serious stuff from ECM with heights over the med. I fear the greatest fear..the jet is firing up.

[Matthew.]

5 minutes ago, jules216 said:

It's quite depressing seeing British Isles in such a mild air in the worst possible time,certainly not a festive feeling at all,perhaps the best fitting chart I found is for next Friday courtesy of latest GFS output,cold to the west,bitter to the east and UK plus 6 uppers,

Haha..on the ECM thats the pick of the lot with polar westerly flow!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

When do we wheel out some CFS charts?  It's getting close to that point I would say...

Lol! I would never dream of sinking so low! I've derided the CFS since it unfortunately was available to us. Theres no wonder that it doesn't have verification stats available to the public because its a pile of tosh and should be put out of its misery!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

22 minutes ago, snowice said:

At 96hrs the big 3 Gfs UKmo ecm all differ so I wouldn't look past 144hrs at present.I still believe there maybe a twist in outputs in the coming days. 

Do you?  Writing is now on the wall

 

BFTP

[blizzard81]

11 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Gfs adamant with it's raising of heights over scandi in the relatively short term. Very interesting that the ukmo has moved towards this too this morning. Ecm having none of it. This is in the 5 day range now.

Well, a clear shift towards the gfs from ecm this evening with regards to scandi heights. Ecm was late sniffing this out. I have a feeling the next few model runs will build a larger ridge over scandi and the actual outcome by the middle of next week will be quite a potent southern scandi high. This means any present model runs after 144hrs will be way off the mark.

[Mucka]

I have been trying to find some positives from the output.

The only ones I can come up with are,

 once you hit rock bottom, the only way is up.

And

There is no longer any danger of expectations being set too high.

 

We are going to require a sacrifice to the weather Gods if we want to see cold and snow by Christmas.

The wicker man is in place, any volunteers?

Edited December 9, 2016 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

So mild and wet it is, nice! Wretched output, i think we have hit rock bottom with that Ecm tonight, i would actually be interested to hear from some of the more experienced members what on earth has gone wrong, and by wrong, i mean the absolute polar opposite of what glosea/ ec seasonal etc.saw

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

No..words...

Edited December 9, 2016 by northwestsnow

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, Johnp said:

It went wrong pretty much from the time John Hammond did his video on the cold start to winter.

And the models noticed it was 1st December.......So the switch was switched, damn conspiracy I tell you! 

Lets all go to the South of France for a bit of the white stuff then, Nice or St Tropez what do you all fancy?.......

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by snowray

[Carl46Wrexham]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

And the models noticed it was 1st December.......So the switch was switched, damn conspiracy I tell you! 

Lets all go to the South of France for a bit of the white stuff then, Nice or St Tropez what do you all fancy?.......

 

Snow to the north of us...snow to the south..here we are...stuck in the middle with crud...

(Apologies to fans of Steelers Wheel)

 

[Scandinavian High.]

I think might have to pack my suitcase.

[nick sussex]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Well, a clear shift towards the gfs from ecm this evening with regards to scandi heights. Ecm was late sniffing this out. I have a feeling the next few model runs will build a larger ridge over scandi and the actual outcome by the middle of next week will be quite a potent southern scandi high. This means any present model runs after 144hrs will be way off the mark.

Lol! I admire your optimism. The issue Blizzard is that at the crucial timeframes we don't get enough energy se and trough disruption. I'll see what NCEP make of the USA pattern and whether theres any hope of a bit more amplitude upstream.

Edited December 9, 2016 by nick sussex

[NeilN]

A serious post here - This could be the models drunk, and bare in mind computers can get it wrong or we're just going to have face the truth. Our climate is changing, and not for the better.