Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Fair shout and yes totally agree about the pro's comments its great to see and hear the insights but even I got sucked in this year as all signals suggested something a kin to Winter .....in December , lets hope January holds something...................................yes yes yes I know its early December but for us to see something wintry this month by god the charts have to have a MASSIVE rethink........................and bloody quick

 Can just  remind some folks it's December 9th not February 9th long way to go  of winter 

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, titchjuicy said:

 

UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Dec 2016 to Saturday 7 Jan 2017:

There is a good deal of uncertainty for this period as the UK remains in a battleground between higher pressure across the near continent and lower pressure in the Atlantic. The exact orientation of these will dictate conditions across the country. Currently 

That's a fair shout - but your hoping for a cold set up in Europe encroaching on the UK and fronts stalling blah blah , we are miles away from that ......but take your point

 

Thank you

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

There's no discussion presently of a 'battleground' set-up in sense of 'snowy'. UKMO forecast is worded to indicate the *slightly* more favoured set-up by Christmas (HP to E; LP to W) which - as they stress - may manifest in milder rather than colder conditions (as per EC ENS and EC Monthly). The difficulty at that range is compounded by very different solutions from GloSea and EC (GloSea5 remaining steadfast on a blocked Xmas period) and has no improvement in any cross-model agreement by early Jan. As I mentioned a few days ago, the route forward remains finely balanced, still with no real clarity and no one solution worth pinning hat on. 

Thanks Ian , much appreciated.

As I pointed out in a recent post , battleground on here will be taken as fronts stalling bumping into cold air, that's not how I would view it, it could well be a milder solution as you suggest

[tcc]

2 hours ago, swfc said:

Wasnt matts tweet yesterday calling a blocked dec/jan?????.Seems this has more flexibilty than a carp pole  atm,ah well

No, not the same model suite - the one yesterday was using the EC long term outlook - so essentially covering Jan and Feb - these as Ian F alluded to showed HLB again. What Matt tweeted was about the NAO from that model which showed to be negative for Dec/Jan.

Todays tweet is from the EC Ens.

Hope that helps

[Banbury]

5 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

 Can just  remind some folks it's December 9th not February 9th long way to go  of winter 

Of course you can ................but read my post , I said the models are going to need a very quick rethink if we want something akin to winter in December, I cant see the harm in that comment

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

There's no discussion presently of a 'battleground' set-up in sense of 'snowy'. UKMO forecast is worded to indicate the *slightly* more favoured set-up by Christmas (HP to E; LP to W) which - as they stress - may manifest in milder rather than colder conditions (as per EC ENS and EC Monthly). The difficulty at that range is compounded by very different solutions from GloSea and EC (GloSea5 remaining steadfast on a blocked Xmas period) and has no improvement in any cross-model agreement by early Jan. As I mentioned a few days ago, the route forward remains finely balanced, still with no real clarity and no one solution worth pinning hat on. 

Has GLOSEA ever been so steadfast for this length of time and been completely wrong?  I mean, at a range of 17 days you expect it could be slightly wrong as after all that is still a long way off.  GP mentioned yesterday that some models wouldn't be showing the drivers that will start changing their outlook (think he was talking MJO) , and we could start seeing models move back to a blocked pattern any day now - is this something you're looking at?  Sorry if it wasn't MJO, I can't find his post.

[tight isobar]

So as IF's udate concludes..

Glosea/glosea5 still adamant/stedfast on a blocky scenario. 

Where as other suites have an array of probable outcomes. 

I can see this is wide open going forward' xmas onwards. 

Perhaps some should ask for some specsavers vouchers this xmas.

Edited December 9, 2016 by tight isobar

[Chris.R]

 Battleground, in the context that the Meto are using it, is not the same as the context we like to use when referring to lows bumping against a cold block,  as a buzz word for wintry conditions. This just shows how easily things can be misinterpreted. 

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Has GLOSEA ever been so steadfast for this length of time and been completely wrong?  I mean, at a range of 17 days you expect it could be slightly wrong as after all that is still a long way off.  GP mentioned yesterday that some models wouldn't be showing the drivers that will start changing their outlook (think he was talking MJO) , and we could start seeing models move back to a blocked pattern any day now - is this something you're looking at?  Sorry if it wasn't MJO, I can't find his post.

Yes it was the MJO he talked about going into phase 7 or 8 i believe, date to look for amplification was from 20th onwards.

[fergieweather]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Thanks Ian , much appreciated.

As I pointed out in a recent post , battleground on here will be taken as fronts stalling bumping into cold air, that's not how I would view it, it could well be a milder solution as you suggest

Sure, understood. The issue re how forecasts are worded is tricky and UKMO (and other commercial mainstream f'cast organisations) know that. One chief at Ops Centre rightly pointed out recently how the phrase 'winter hazards' (eg in 3-month outlooks) can get automatically read as *definitively* meaning 'snow' in isolation - an issue now dubbed, perhaps with reason, 'SMS' or 'Snow Myopic Syndrome' (!) - ie where media or cold aficionados seem to mentally discount how the phrase (as intended for contingency planners) actually includes freezing fog; hoar frosts; icy roads.. etc etc... as well as snow!  Cheers.

[Man With Beard]

I'm taking "battleground" meaning heights to the east trying to edge westwards and low heights to the west trying to move eastwards. Like trying to push two balloons together. The thing about that is sometimes they don't go in the direction you'd expect.

Makes me think Scandi High could be one possible outcome, instinctively?

Edited December 9, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

Sure, understood. The issue re how forecasts are worded is tricky and UKMO (and other commercial mainstream f'cast organisations) know that. One chief at Ops Centre rightly pointed out recently how the phrase 'winter hazards' (eg in 3-month outlooks) can get automatically read as *definitively* meaning 'snow' in isolation - an issue now dubbed, perhaps with reason, 'SMS' or 'Snow Myopic Syndrome' (!) - ie where media or cold aficionados seem to mentally discount how the phrase (as intended for contingency planners) actually includes freezing fog; hoar frosts; icy roads.. etc etc... as well as snow!  Cheers.

Spot on Ian........................and I'm no different we all like to read into comments and come up with a more wintery solution . Very difficult job you guys have and are duty bound to inform the public of course.

Appreciate the reply.

 

Thanks

[January Snowstorm]

13 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

As I mentioned a few days ago, the route forward remains finely balanced, still with no real clarity and no one solution worth pinning hat on. 

I suppose after the distinct lack of blocking developing in early Dec (despite global models suggesting it) one wonders is there any value in looking beyond a 7 to 10 day span.

I mean in all honesty anything could be showing by Christmas day....storms, snow or quiet anticyclonic.

Our climate is primarily mild and tempered so the non educated guess is a green Christmas. Of course this doesn't mean science told us rather than history

[Scandinavian High.]

7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Thanks Ian , much appreciated.

As I pointed out in a recent post , battleground on here will be taken as fronts stalling bumping into cold air, that's not how I would view it, it could well be a milder solution as you suggest

And where in my post did I mention   Fronts moving in to cold air and giving snow . All I said was  the update from the meto they mentioned battle ground milder to west colder to the east so don't no where mention of snow came from. 

[Banbury]

9 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

And where in my post did I mention   Fronts moving in to cold air and giving snow . All I said was  the update from the meto they mentioned battle ground milder to west colder to the east so don't no where mention of snow came from. 

I didn't mention you , I said it will be taken on here as............................and most people will

MWB and Chris R mention how things can be misinterpreted

 

Thanks

 

" Battleground "

Edited December 9, 2016 by Banbury

[Scandinavian High.]

10 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I didn't mention you , I said it will be taken on here as............................and most people will

MWB and Chris R mention how things can be misinterpreted

 

Thanks

 

" Battleground "

Ok thank you

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

Ok thank you

No worries , its all a good discussion....................we all want winter proper , I think we all got caught up in the background signals and rightly so, I know I did. lol

[bluearmy]

given the info from ian re GLOSEA, we know where the GEFS are so that leaves the eps rather isolated for later week 2.  now a combination of the blocky nw Europe and a strengthened atlantic jet could proved a more interesting period than currently seems likely.

[legritter]

Afternoon all ,after studying all current charts and Data I am inclined to think that out around later next week we could very well have some  very threatening lows coming our way ,I am not suggesting A Battleground situation [ the type we dream of ] but perhaps lows taking a more southerly track , of course at this range any high in our local will be critical to what weather we get . I think we will start to see on the models very soon more of a hint  of where we are heading ,regards positioning of high pressure and how very deep cold air exiting n,east Canada could influence the UK . Worth pointing out for new members that it does not take many days under high pressure in mid or late December for cold air to develope , so on the 9th december i will say ,stay calm ,its mild now ,but the mid to longer outlook can change very quickly , a couple of stella runs ,get all models singing together  ,Squirrels nicely tucked up in bed ,frosty happy with his crayons and a happy crowd on this forum cheers all ,

 

[Scandinavian High.]

So we have here HP to the east low pressure to the west maybe cooler south easterly winds. Then Hp pushing north later on . JMA

Edited December 9, 2016 by abbie123

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, legritter said:

Afternoon all ,after studying all current charts and Data I am inclined to think that out around later next week we could very well have some  very threatening lows coming our way ,I am not suggesting A Battleground situation [ the type we dream of ] but perhaps lows taking a more southerly track , of course at this range any high in our local will be critical to what weather we get . I think we will start to see on the models very soon more of a hint  of where we are heading ,regards positioning of high pressure and how very deep cold air exiting n,east Canada could influence the UK . Worth pointing out for new members that it does not take many days under high pressure in mid or late December for cold air to develope , so on the 9th december i will say ,stay calm ,its mild now ,but the mid to longer outlook can change very quickly , a couple of stella runs ,get all models singing together  ,Squirrels nicely tucked up in bed ,frosty happy with his crayons and a happy crowd on this forum cheers all ,

 

I'm hoping this will help, and we start seeing the improvement from the 12z today. Fingers crossed but this along with GLOSEA surely gives us a decent chance for a turn round from the other models , but we really need to see this ASAP then slowly manifest towards something festive ❄️☃️

[Mucka]

1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

There's no discussion presently of a 'battleground' set-up in sense of 'snowy'. UKMO forecast is worded to indicate the *slightly* more favoured set-up by Christmas (HP to E; LP to W) which - as they stress - may manifest in milder rather than colder conditions (as per EC ENS and EC Monthly). The difficulty at that range is compounded by very different solutions from GloSea and EC (GloSea5 remaining steadfast on a blocked Xmas period) and has no improvement in any cross-model agreement by early Jan. As I mentioned a few days ago, the route forward remains finely balanced, still with no real clarity and no one solution worth pinning hat on. 

Between a rock and a hard place but if there is necessary ambiguity in the forecast can people be blamed for misinterpreting it? 

For me the first half of the 30 day outlook is fairly clear, no chance of cold really with SW/W flow and high pressure SE, but the second half is very suggestive of the Atlantic trough being further South and high pressure being oriented further NW than the first period (not to our NW) with the battleground between colder and warmer air being over the UK and although we do get the caveat that orientation of the battleground will dictate conditions it is also suggested unsettled weather will be more likely to the W (not NW) and colder weather to the E (not just drier SE)

It is actually very well written  but I wouldn't blame anyone for interpreting it as being better for snow prospects than may actually be the intention.

Until long range forecasting becomes more accurate and reliable or the MetO decide  to shed their professional skins and go all Daily Express on us, I'm afraid the situation won't change.

What I do credit the MetO with is their lack of pretense and the integrity they display with regard to current long range forecasting capabilities and having people within the organization actually post to this forum is very much appreciated - even if we do shoot the messenger on occasion.

 

Personally, I would say blocking chances as the y relate to cold and snow possibilities are slowly being pushed away, there is very little talk now of Atlantic ridges or high pressure to our NW. Christmas is just beyond two weeks away so still enough uncertainty for hope of a turnaround but we need to see a cold signal proper appear within the ensembles soon to see any snow over the Christmas period. 

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by Mucka

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Between a rock and a hard place but if there is necessary ambiguity in the forecast can people be blamed for misinterpreting it? 

For me the first half of the 30 day outlook is fairly clear, no chance of cold really with SW/W flow and high pressure SE, but the second half is very suggestive of the Atlantic trough being further South and high pressure being oriented further NW with the battleground between colder and warmer air being over the UK and although we do get the caveat that orientation of the battleground will dictate conditions it is also suggested unsettled weather will be more likely to the W (not NW) and colder weather to the E (not just drier SE)

It is actually very well written  but I wouldn't blame anyone for interpreting it as being better for snow prospects than may actually be the intention.

Until long range forecasting becomes more accurate and reliable or the MetO decide  to shed their professional skins and go all Daily Express on us, I'm afraid the situation won't change.

What I do credit the MetO with is their lack of pretense and integrity with regard to current long range forecasting capabilities and having people within the organization actually post to this forum is very much appreciated - even if we do shoot the messenger on occasion.

 

Personally, I would say blocking chances as the y relate to cold and snow possibilities are slowly being pushed away, there is very little talk now of Atlantic ridges or high pressure to our NW. Christmas is just beyond two weeks away so still enough uncertainty for hope of a turnaround but we need to see a cold signal proper appear within the ensembles soon to see any snow over the Christmas period. 

 

Very good post

[Scandinavian High.]

Christmas Day anyone.

[nick sussex]

The search for cold is taking on Da Vinci Code style deciphering!

Both the UKMO and ECM at least try to take the jet further se although as we see the ECM doesn't develop better after T168hrs because of the PV edging east.

The UKMO at T168hrs does show some trough disruption, you can see that circled red with some of the energy trying to head more se, now we can't see whats happening to the n/ne of the UK but the set up would likely have high pressure to the ne with the UK in a s/se flow.

Looking at the GFS's polar profile in both if its runs today its quite different to the ECM/UKMO at T144 hrs. They have the PV more fragmented with a stronger push of positive heights from the Pacific side.

Whether they're modelling a different MJO signal hard to say as NCEP haven't updated these yet today.

Anyway the latest GFS is coming out, given both of its outputs today the only way is up , hopefully!