Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[nick sussex]

13 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Out to t198 so far and it's almost identical to the 12z run. A level of run to run consistency I don't think we've seen for days. Which of course means that we'll wake up tomorrow to the 0z run being completely different.

We don't want consistency. Because its like watching paint dry, high tries to get north, gets flattened hangs on for dear life and sits there for day after day. I'm beginning to think nothing will remove that high, its like been cemented into the outputs to last forever!

OMG its still there, even the GFS lower resolution output doesn't try and get rid of it! Vile utterly vile!

Edited December 8, 2016 by nick sussex

[Nick F]

Could be one of the driest Decembers on record if recent GFS runs came off.

EC46 weeklies out and  it goes for +ve anomaly to the NE and E and -ve anomaly to the west for week 3, more expansive +ve anomaly to the NE week 4 over Scandi. Must admit, not knowing how well they verify at such long lead times, not sure I have a great deal of faith in them yet.

Edited December 8, 2016 by Nick F

[Ravelin]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We don't want consistency. Because its like watching paint dry, high tries to get north, gets flattened hangs on for dear life and sits there for day after day. I'm beginning to think nothing will remove that high, its like been cemented into the outputs to last forever!

OMG its still there, even the GFS lower resolution output doesn't try and get rid of it! Vile utterly vile!

I fully agree, although it might, just might, bring some frosts and chilly days it's tedious and boring to watch. I'd much rather take my chances with some 'cold zonality', but that's easier to contemplate given my location. I'd also like to see even a hint that the Alps get some more snow since I'm off there on 27th and unlike the last 2 New Year trips I'd quite like it to be a snowy wonderland. 

Even in the far reaches of FI on the 18z that *bleeping* Euro high is still hanging on... 

Go, just go, nobody wants you, take the hint... 

[Gael_Force]

10 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I fully agree, although it might, just might, bring some frosts and chilly days it's tedious and boring to watch. I'd much rather take my chances with some 'cold zonality', but that's easier to contemplate given my location. I'd also like to see even a hint that the Alps get some more snow since I'm off there on 27th and unlike the last 2 New Year trips I'd quite like it to be a snowy wonderland. 

Even in the far reaches of FI on the 18z that *bleeping* Euro high is still hanging on... 

Go, just go, nobody wants you, take the hint... 

I wonder if we'll even get frosts looking at the latest EC32. The site Summer sun usually posts the charts from; I'll leave the pictures for him to put up tomorrow. 

http://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

Edited December 8, 2016 by Gael_Force

[booferking]

The control is pretty close to an easterly 180hrs.

[karlos1983]

11 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I wonder if we'll even get frosts looking at the latest EC32. The site Summer sun usually posts the charts from; I'll leave the pictures for him to put up tomorrow. 

http://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

Yikes that's not pretty 

[Frosty.]

Amazing Gfs 18z tonight, very little actually happens..The end

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Amazing Gfs 18z tonight, very little actually happens..The end

That's a fair summary Karl 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Amazing Gfs 18z tonight, very little actually happens..The end

Spot on Day5 Day13.

[Nick F]

53 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep & the only Novemeber in the Merra data with surpressed zonal figures - at the moment its running like a total replica !

Perhaps veering slightly off topic, and not one for pattern matching, but December 2005 bears some similarities as per GFS  in that it was quite an anticyclonic and dry month, November that year was colder than average like this year, both now and then weak Nina to neutral ENSO. But December 2005 had a snowy spell in the east to end the month via a Scandi high - despite the run up to Xmas that year having low pressure to the NW and the Euro slug high in place ...

Edited December 8, 2016 by Nick F

[Man With Beard]

Right now I've cracked the code for the ECM 46 I can easily go back and see what it was showing in the past. Here's 24 Nov for midish-December...

[Nick F]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Right now I've cracked the code for the ECM 46 I can easily go back and see what it was showing in the past. Here's 24 Nov for midish-December...

Hmm, H500 pattern ain't ever gonna look like that by mid month! Pinch of salt needed for the weeklies?

[knocker]

Tonight's ec46 mean seven day anomaly day 18-25 (Jan 2nd) has a negatively tilted trough to the NW some positive anomalies to the NE but little ridging thus an unsettled westerly upper flow. No huge change 21-28

[Mucka]

Among the chaos and uncertainty GFS ensembles continue to strongly favour a UK/Euro high to establish just after mid month.

It is what happens to that high where the real divergence begins.

PS

We get the first Christmas day output tomorrow. Let the riots begin!

Edited December 8, 2016 by Mucka

[swilliam]

16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Right now I've cracked the code for the ECM 46 I can easily go back and see what it was showing in the past. Here's 24 Nov for midish-December...

Looks pretty good to me.This is the GEFS mean anomaly for the 15th

And the EPS

 

A couple of days later

 

I do not really understand all the bashing of these long range products. Of course they are not going to be correct all the time - they just indicate a favoured outcome. As I said given the range I think this looks pretty impressive - others may disagree.

 

Edited December 8, 2016 by swilliam

[booferking]

Just in time for Christmas ho ho.

Edited December 8, 2016 by booferking

[Summer Sun]

ECM 

12th to 18th

Temps remaining above average - rain is a bit more mixed maybe a touch below in the east 

19th to 25th temps remain above average weaker signals for rain 

26th to 1st as above 

[Banbury]

Certainly some interesting set ups in the GFS 18z ENS

 

OP was on the mild(er) side for a large part of the run

Edited December 9, 2016 by Banbury

[jules216]

Just for fun,this is GFS ensemble mean temp.anomaly,latest run for Christmas eve. Ireland and UK are by far the mildest places of similar latitude,to choose 1 day per year when I want snow and cold this is it

[Snowman.]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Right now I've cracked the code for the ECM 46 I can easily go back and see what it was showing in the past. Here's 24 Nov for midish-December...

This was the 24th of November run? 

Was this all the hype was about? I was expecting a much stronger signal with all the hype it got. Goes to show that charts to text can get misread and blown massively out of proportion. 

GEFS for the same timeframe(ish)

Not too shabby if the GEFS is to be believed.

EDIT: I was wrong on times did a reply.

Edited December 9, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

This was the 24th of November run? 

Was this all the hype was about? I was expecting a much stronger signal with all the hype it got. Goes to show that charts to text can get misread and blown massively out of proportion. 

Yeah....it basically shows what we have been/are about to experience with HP to the S and LP to the NW (if you ignore the shading and look at the MSLP). Those height anomalies are rather weak to be basing a forecast of blocking on.

Edited December 9, 2016 by CreweCold

[joggs]

3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

The brutal cold is over the central and western states this time though and although it is far from mild over on the eastern side, it is not the brutal cold they have experienced over the last few winters.

Still a hell of a lot colder than blighty.Point is,super charges the jet and most of the time we know where the jet goes,over the top.Hope you watched the 91 video of Ian on YouTube. 

[Snowman.]

40 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

This was the 24th of November run? 

Was this all the hype was about? I was expecting a much stronger signal with all the hype it got. Goes to show that charts to text can get misread and blown massively out of proportion. 

GEFS for the same timeframe(ish)

Not too shabby if the GEFS is to be believed.

I have gotten times mixed up. But here is how it was perceived on the 24th of Nov for start the 19th of Dec till the 25th.

GEFS Anoms for 19th  ECM 18th(Close enough) 

 

I would say that wasn't a half bad attempt, heights stretching further west into the Atlantic is clearly something we don't have but heights NE is something we do, probably down to the cold from US charging up the jet. The ECM is actually further away now than the GEFS.

 

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Seasonality]

Serious cold pool over Europe on this run. Big change from the 18z.

[Mucka]

Our first Christmas chart,

Mild, wet and windy.

 

Oh well, start low, aim high. 

Edited December 9, 2016 by Mucka