Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[nick sussex]

Crunch time for the rest of December. It will be interesting to see whether the PV reforming looking quite ominous and then imploding soon after does actually verify.

I think we could view this as a "bellwether" for the prospects towards Christmas, in past mild horror spells once reformed and to the north its often been reluctant to go anywhere and instead has hung around. At least if you have the PV fragmented you have a chance of something popping up.

 

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Definitely a trend, wouldn't it be great if it all fell in place for Xmas. That would make up for a failed front loaded Winter!!

A trend!? Just because a few GFS FI runs are going for some slight amplification, dearie me, looks like the spectacular failed Northerlies and Greenland highs the GFS FI's produce previously has still not convinced people that whatever it shows at that range is nothing more than just pure rubbish really.

The only trend I see in the short to medium term is the models are trying to produce heights to our NE but they are struggling against quite an angry jet stream however whilst the high sinks, the UK remains inbetween of the high and low pressure system resulting in a mild set up rather than a full on wet and windy set up with low pressure systems sweeping through. Still feel though with slight changes upstream we could see something slightly better but all indications suggests anything cold is very unlikely.

[WeatherGuru2012]

Gfs shows another cold run up to xmas and the cfs has been consisten with this idea too as well as the parallel. Same for EC lrf forecasts what GP posted other week in regards to it showing a blocked xmas.  I know its miles off but maybe its the only inerest atm? It has been mentioned by many of the pros and experienced members its the 2nd half of month with more potential. Doesnt have to be dead on mid month either. But 18th to 21st period there has been a few runs now picking something up at that period

Edited December 7, 2016 by WeatherGuru2012

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

A trend!? Just because a few GFS FI runs are going for some slight amplification, dearie me, looks like the spectacular failed Northerlies and Greenland highs the GFS FI's produce previously has still not convinced people that whatever it shows at that range is nothing more than just pure rubbish really.

 

Its not just the GFS though. GP seemed confident of height rises to the North West towards the end of the month.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

A trend!? Just because a few GFS FI runs are going for some slight amplification, dearie me, looks like the spectacular failed Northerlies and Greenland highs the GFS FI's produce previously has still not convinced people that whatever it shows at that range is nothing more than just pure rubbish really.

The only trend I see in the short to medium term is the models are trying to produce heights to our NE but they are struggling against quite an angry jet stream however whilst the high sinks, the UK remains inbetween of the high and low pressure system resulting in a mild set up rather than a full on wet and windy set up with low pressure systems sweeping through. Still feel though with slight changes upstream we could see something slightly better but all indications suggests anything cold is very unlikely.

Yep a trend, and pretty much guaranteed a white Xmas now. 

[Methuselah]

I certainly wouldn't go so far as to call what the GFS is hinting at a 'trend'; it's certainly a growing suggestion, however, and a suggestion that seems to be creeping slowly this way...If it persists and/or strengthens, over the coming five days, I might start to view as more than a curiosity...

Edited December 7, 2016 by Ed Stone

[SMU]

The 12z finishes with a low amplitude wave that peaks on the southern tip of Greenland - luckily enough it gets enough cold air wedged to the south as it sinks across Scandi & we swing the winds in from the East-

Best case scenario for the festive period

Edited December 7, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The 12z finishes with a low amplitude wave that peaks on the southern tip of Greenland - luckily enough it gets enough cold air wedged to the south as it sinks across Scandi & we swing the winds in from the East-

Best case scenario for the festive period

Best case scenario?

Hmmm, I'll be back after the ensembles are out. 

[Ali1977]

Stamps at 192 look pretty good 

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep a trend, and pretty much guaranteed a white Xmas now. 

We like to look on the bright side of life so I agree, let this trend be our friend!

Encouraging signs from the models again today.

[Geordiesnow]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I certainly wouldn't go so far as to call what the GFS is hinting at a 'trend'; it's certainly a growing suggestion, however, and a suggestion that seems to be creeping slowly this way...If it persists and/or strengthens, over the coming five days, I might start to view as more than a curiosity...

For me, some members are that desprate to find something interesting in an outlook which is poor for cold lovers, we are looking at the depths of FI and then think just because a couple of runs in a row suggests we could see a bit more amplification it is count as a trend. We know from past experiences it could easily go on the next run at that stage to something completely different.

 

[Frosty.]

Just now, Geordiesnow said:

For me, some members are that desprate to find something interesting in an outlook which is poor for cold lovers, we are looking at the depths of FI and then think just because a couple of runs in a row suggests we could see a bit more amplification it is count as a trend. We know from past experiences it could easily go on the next run at that stage to something completely different.

 

We are looking for signs of hope rather than wallowing in misery.

[Ali1977]

Definitely a upgrade in GEFS, including control 

[frosty ground]

10 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

For me, some members are that desprate to find something interesting in an outlook which is poor for cold lovers, we are looking at the depths of FI and then think just because a couple of runs in a row suggests we could see a bit more amplification it is count as a trend. We know from past experiences it could easily go on the next run at that stage to something completely different.

 

People are looking at the models and discussing what they show.... now there is a reason people are looking at how the far reaches of FI for something interesting, it is because that's all there is of interest unless mild and damp conditions are your cup of tea.

Knocker sums it up perfectly by stating that the next 10 days will be pretty much the same for his summaries.

 

I think the issue here is that some people just can't deal with changes in outputs and they would rather not have their hopes dashed.... if that's the case I suggest you give the thread a miss

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Definitely a upgrade in GEFS, including control 

And there were some peachy cold runs within the 6z suite too, things are looking up!

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

We are looking for signs of hope rather than wallowing in misery.

Which is understandable giving the output, but realistically speaking, there is no chance of an output verifying at 300 hours to 0 hours without it changing. Of course the reality could show something similar once we get to those dates but it won't be the same as what the GFS is showing now.

Always feel its better looking in the medium term for potential changes in the weather patterns and cold set ups tend to form in the medium term and have a higher chance of verifying. Be even better if the UKMO and ECM show any cold potential as we know the GFS can be stubborn in whats its showing for quite a few runs which makes people nervous only for it usually(although not always) ends up being wrong.

I think what those FI charts do show is that nothing can ever be ruled out and all this writing off December etc is very premature.

[booferking]

Just now, frosty ground said:

People are looking at the models and discussing what they show.... now there is a reason people are looking at how the far reaches of FI for something interesting, it is because that's all there is of interest unless mild and damp conditions are your cup of tea.

Knocker sums it up perfectly by stating that the next 10 days will be pretty much the same for his summaries.

 

I think the issue here is that some people just can't deal with changes in outputs and they would rather not have their hopes dashed.... if that's the case I suggest you give the thread a miss

Well said my friend agree with all the above.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some very interesting GEFS perts coming along now...I'll take this one please

Surely but slowly, the Christmas week potential pattern change begins to pick up some pace...and that's as optimistic as I'll dare go for now...

There's enough in the ensembles to suggest that the trop vortex will, at the very least, come under some duress 

Edited December 7, 2016 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

We are looking for signs of hope rather than wallowing in misery.

Yes all can be found in the depths of FI 

So while no strong signal for any particular outcome, it would also be fair to say that a pattern change to a more blocked scenario before Xmas is perfectly plausible at this stage.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Mucka

[Frosty.]

Just now, Geordiesnow said:

Which is understandable giving the output, but realistically speaking, there is no chance of an output verifying at 300 hours to 0 hours without it changing. Of course the reality could show something similar once we get to those dates but it won't be the same as what the GFS is showing now.

Always feel its better looking in the medium term for potential changes in the weather patterns and cold set ups tend to form in the medium term and have a higher chance of verifying. Be even better if the UKMO and ECM show any cold potential as we know the GFS can be stubborn in whats its showing for quite a few runs which makes people nervous only for it usually(although not always) ends up being wrong.

I think what those FI charts do show is that nothing can ever be ruled out and all this writing off December etc is very premature.

I agree the reliable is poor but FI is up for grabs and its a good place to start looking for longer term trends..sometimes they are on to something and as a cold / snow lover I'm really looking hard for signs and there are some showing.

[NeilN]

To be fair, I think this cold weather will happen. Perhaps we'll be caught off-guard and come Christmas week we'll have an unexpected snow storm? It will come, and it seems the projections in FI are possibles. My Mum (and a member who posted a status on here) said this is like December 1986 - start off cold, then mild, then cool, then snow in the New Year. I've a feeling this is the format. 

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Which is understandable giving the output, but realistically speaking, there is no chance of an output verifying at 300 hours to 0 hours without it changing. Of course the reality could show something similar once we get to those dates but it won't be the same as what the GFS is showing now.

Always feel its better looking in the medium term for potential changes in the weather patterns and cold set ups tend to form in the medium term and have a higher chance of verifying. Be even better if the UKMO and ECM show any cold potential as we know the GFS can be stubborn in whats its showing for quite a few runs which makes people nervous only for it usually(although not always) ends up being wrong.

I think what those FI charts do show is that nothing can ever be ruled out and all this writing off December etc is very premature.

Absolutely agree with that Geordiesnow.

 

 

[Scandinavian High.]

Are we we seeing pattern change around Christmas time blocking takeing over looks cold and maybe some snow showers for eastern parts you never no what's around the corner with the British weather. 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

So while no strong signal for any particular outcome, it would also be fair to say that a pattern change to a more blocked scenario before Xmas is perfectly plausible at this stage.

Yes it's not all doom and gloom, I still see a change to settled weather with frost and fog mid month and we will take it from there, just because the experts can't see anything significantly wintry later in December doesn't mean it can't happen..The weather doesn't obey any rules!

Edited December 7, 2016 by Frosty.

[MR EXTREMES]

36 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

A trend!? Just because a few GFS FI runs are going for some slight amplification, dearie me, looks like the spectacular failed Northerlies and Greenland highs the GFS FI's produce previously has still not convinced people that whatever it shows at that range is nothing more than just pure rubbish really.

The only trend I see in the short to medium term is the models are trying to produce heights to our NE but they are struggling against quite an angry jet stream however whilst the high sinks, the UK remains inbetween of the high and low pressure system resulting in a mild set up rather than a full on wet and windy set up with low pressure systems sweeping through. Still feel though with slight changes upstream we could see something slightly better but all indications suggests anything cold is very unlikely.

I very much agree that's the vortex for you and a increased west qbo.

That's why knocker is so very happy with these runs.

As soon as u you see higher pressure to our south and low after low going over any block then it's clear to see that the lrf is on rocky grounds and in the last few days the models have repeatly shown at best a mid lat block with nowhere to go except south or se.

Because lows dropping through scandi and lows to our far west stopping any heights going west northwest so that's no good sluggish mjo allowing further development for the vortex.

Domino effect but not in the coldies direction.

more of the same as we recently been getting after brief unsettled spell.