Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[tcc]

6 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Selling, the opposite of buying ! Quite simple!

Oh right! For some reason I read it the other way haha!

Cheers for clearing up

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

The last para from current UKMET guidance:

"However, there will probably also be some milder, unsettled interludes too, and as we head into the New Year this may become more of a feature in our weather". 

I would be selling this position right now.

Ha - that's a brave call!! Memo to self... need to enhance my understanding of the relationship between the MJO and GWO. That's the great thing about the weather - just when you think you've learned something and "got it nailed" you realise it creates a whole raft of other things to learn.

Anyway - as temps in the SW here rise towards double figures for the first time in what seems like ages - the longevity of any mild spell looks to be of minimal concern. Stewart has said it all above really and with far greater technical aplomb than most on here could manage, but I'll add two charts of my own. Firstly forecasted wave 2 impact set to peak at the weekend as stated yesterday, but a signal today for another uptick bang on mid month as of today's runs

This wont be helping the vortex recover though it is a very moderate signal for now. Secondly notice the disconnect in this forecast below.

Zonal winds at the top of the strat picking up, but meanwhile lower down they are stagnating - and flux now once again forecast to be poleward rather than equatorward. Effect? Once again - no easy recovery for the vortex, and the hope of a disconnected strat/trop relationship through the heart of our winter.

I've said it a number of times in the last few weeks - what's not to like?

 

 

Edited December 6, 2016 by Catacol

[fergieweather]

36 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Do you mean by this, has of things stand, you're expecting January to be mild and unsettled?

Just to explain: The wording of the UKMO forecast is a nod towards latest GloSea, which (after the mid-late Dec shenanigans and slight bias towards blocking) then leans marginally in favour of zonality into early part of Jan. 

[Catacol]

13 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Selling, the opposite of buying ! Quite simple!

Hehe - think shares and the FTSE. You sell when a stock is about to fall. So to sell the UKMet position means you have no confidence in its future. If it looked like it was about to increase in value you would buy!!

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

 then leans marginally in favour of zonality into early part of Jan. 

Which could mean cold zonality as well as mild

I'm hoping the models are right about a cold anticyclonic run up to & including christmas..there must be a good chance now!  

Edited December 6, 2016 by Frosty.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Oh ok, I was unsure what he meant by selling. I thought that could either mean he would discard it or he thought it was of enough value to sell himself. I now see he meant the former, which is good news to me as a cold and snow fanatic, but as Ian said it is what GloSea is predicting. But as GP himself said he does lean towards the first week of Jan being unstable (and that doesn't necessarily mean mild and we know what that could mean) and Frosty pointed out as well that zonality doesn't have to mean of a mild nature. As ever though time will tell. But at least there are signs of positivity for us cold and snow fans to cling to now after an awful few days in this thread.

Edited December 6, 2016 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Catacol]

9 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Oh ok, I was unsure what he meant by selling. I thought that could either mean he would discard it or he thought it was of enough value to sell himself. I now see he meant the former, which is good news to me as a cold and snow fanatic, but as Ian said it is what GloSea is predicting. But as GP himself said he does lean towards the first week of Jan being unstable (and that doesn't necessarily mean mild and we know what that could mean) and Frosty pointed out as well that zonality doesn't have to mean of a mild nature. As ever though time will tell. But at least there are signs of positivity for us cold and snow fans to cling to now after an awful few days in this thread.

Instability. Hmmm... yummy........ I wonder if he might mean this?

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Instability. Hmmm... yummy........ I wonder if he might mean this?

BANK! (backdated)

Edited December 6, 2016 by karlos1983

[Ali1977]

Front loaded winter not sounding so loaded at the minute.  

Lets see if the blocking does get in place, if it does then anything forecast beyond that would know doubt change or be way off the mark  - I think we've learned that over the last few weeks.  A few of those GEFS ENS would give us some pretty prolonged cold spells, so lets hope that the ones showing this are onto something.  The mixed signal for both cold and mild options should start going one way or the other over the next few days for the run upto Xmas, only when the direction of travel in this regard is slightly nailed down should we be looking beyond and second guessing. To be honest if we do get blocking by Mid Month then hats off to GLOASEA, then maybe early Jan poss zonal spell is a bit more believable.

[WINTRY WALES]

14 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Oh ok, I was unsure what he meant by selling. I thought that could either mean he would discard it or he thought it was of enough value to sell himself. I now see he meant the former, which is good news to me as a cold and snow fanatic, but as Ian said it is what GloSea is predicting. But as GP himself said he does lean towards the first week of Jan being unstable (and that doesn't necessarily mean mild and we know what that could mean) and Frosty pointed out as well that zonality doesn't have to mean of a mild nature. As ever though time will tell. But at least there are signs of positivity for us cold and snow fans to cling to now after an awful few days in this thread.

Who needs to try and get their head around teleconnections, SSW's, effects of goings on in the Indian Oceans....I am like you....failing to interpret a simple summing up sentence......so to clarify GP's comment is good news for Coldies as things stand?

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Who needs to try and get their head around teleconnections, SSW's, effects of goings on in the Indian Oceans....I am like you....failing to interpret a simple summing up sentence......so to clarify GP's comment is good news for Coldies as things stand?

Yes (Potentially)  

[Bristawl Si]

53 minutes ago, tcc said:

Oh right! For some reason I read it the other way haha!

Cheers for clearing up

I hope you dont buy and sell shares.

[Paul]

Can we get this back to the models please. 

[Ben Lewis]

Just now, Certain kind of fool said:

I bet Christmas is a bundle of laughs in your house!

You are obviously right though - there's no denying that! Whatever we get will eventually have to appear on an ops chart at less than t+120. However, that does take a bit of fun out of it all, doesn't it?!

Like you say, he is right though.

If its just for a bit of fun/hobby which it totally should be out of the 7 day period - then why do folk have meltdowns and ''Life is over'' posts when models fall off inside the reliable (Which it nearly always does) - the 'bit of fun' should work both ways!!

[tcc]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I hope you dont buy and sell shares.

Lucky for you I don't!

 

Anyway moving on, let's hope the Op today picks one of the -10 runs for the 12z!

[karlos1983]

We must have really upset you going off topic Paul. I mean come on, taking the site down at 15:30 right when the models are pumping out the 12z. My refresh button is knackered!

Those Scandi Heights getting pushed away a little earlier in comparison to the 06z

 

UKMO has potential at +144 if we can get that low to eject SE toward Biscay 

Edited December 6, 2016 by karlos1983

[warrenb]

GFS is almost disrupting the trough at 180, interesting, the Meto at 144 is also very interesting

 

Ah the classic 950mb GFS super low to destroy any blocking.

Edited December 6, 2016 by warrenb

[northwestsnow]

Hmmm, meto looks poor to me, the northern arm just barrelling through, although i am on my phone and cant access meteociel....

[feb1991blizzard]

America (including parts that aren't usually prone) are going to get some extreme cold and snow if the 12z GFS comes anywhere near to verifying.

[SMU]

Really ? People hanging on a forecast for the first week of Jan thats all but 4 weeks away-

 The models whether that be 500MB / MJO / GWO cant even get day 6 correct & yet people fret over a forecast for days 26-33

There is noone who has accuracy to that degree on here, in the met or anywhere else TBH - the only thing the met will have is model clusters.

Almost totally & utterly pointless posting specifics & equally as pointless worrying about it.

[johnholmes]

22 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

We must have really upset you going off topic Paul. I mean come on, taking the site down at 15:30 right when the models are pumping out the 12z. My refresh button is knackered!

Those Scandi Heights getting pushed away a little earlier in comparison to the 06z

 

UKMO has potential at +144 if we can get that low to eject SE toward Biscay 

Why on earth would it move SE?

The upper flow is from the SW which is what will move the surface feature, or am I totally up the creek!

 

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Really ? People hanging on a forecast for the first week of Jan thats all but 4 weeks away-

 

Because Steve, if your looking for snow, that's all we have to grab onto.

There is nothing in the model output showing any kind of snowy wintriness up to the end of the month.

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Really ? People hanging on a forecast for the first week of Jan thats all but 4 weeks away-

What else is there to hang onto from a cold perspective?

St Nick's dangly magic wand?

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Because Steve, if your looking for snow, that's all we have to grab onto.

There is nothing in the model output showing any kind of snowy wintriness up to the end of the month.

But then model output doesn't go to the end of the month, not even Christmas and anything beyond day 10 (mid month) is unlikely to verify.

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Because Steve, if your looking for snow, that's all we have to grab onto.

There is nothing in the model output showing any kind of snowy wintriness up to the end of the month.

 

10 minutes ago, AWD said:

What else is there to hang onto from a cold perspective?

St Nick's dangly magic wand?

What exactly are you hanging onto?