Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

[Singularity]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

And that's supposed to make it alright? I don't think people have to put up with this nonsense, particularly from someone very prone to waffle.

Okay. Those who have taken offence to my statement - I formally apologize. I was trying to see if I could encourage less of the posts that talk about short-term disappointments as if they will inevitably lead to long-term disappointments as well. It's disheartening to see some people losing so much hope so soon in the season.

Clearly I didn't put across my thoughts as well as I could but trust me, I'm a fellow who likes to think the best of people at every opportunity 

As for your 'waffle' statement, now that's hurtful but I won't pursue it further on here for obvious reasons.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well show me a t394 chart that verifies and I'll give you this weeks lottery numbers. Perhaps in 20 years time. At the moment there isn't even a trend there.

It's not whether a T+384 chart verifies, in detail, PIT - it's whether the overall pattern maintains? Should we get to December 13, and the GFS charts verify - it's Bob's yer uncle?

Otherwise, it's 'Oh Sheet'!

[nick sussex]

Matt H just killed Santa!  Appreciate the honesty and lack of spin. I think the post sums up a discussion we had in here the other night with Crewe Cold who I don't think is about this evening.

There are absolutely no certainties with weather modelling, and regardless of the massive investment in super computers theres simply no way currently of forecasting accurately at longer range.

I think the only recent winter which went bizarrely smoothly in terms of longer range signal was winter 2009/2010. I think its clear that our current background signals aren't as strong as that. With that in mind theres more fluidity to what we'll get and just as we might have had stronger foundations at the time of the last ECM 46 one suspects a few bricks have been removed.

We'll just have to see what transpires over the next week but Matts update might lower expectations.

 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

It's not whether a T+384 chart verifies, in detail, PIT - it's whether the overall pattern maintains? Should we get to December 13, and the GFS charts verify - it's Bob's yer uncle?

Otherwise, it's 'Oh Sheet'!

It could be that there is a dramatic change at short notice Ed, like flipping a switch..it's happened before!

[stewfox]

Another day and another 24 hrs of model watching.

Pub was a quite affair given this anticyclonic spell looks like holding firm for quite some time yet

Someone bought a cherry picker to the pub and showed some decent 'cherry picked'  GFS 18z ensembles and some eye candy in la la land

I think with some ‘High Fatigue syndrome’ there was more cherry picking of T240 or beyond charts and we will leave the pub run at that

This morning (well 3hrs after last post in the pub)

UKMO goes on a shortwave frenzy and from hero to zero this morning sending most of the energy over the block. (who called it a F*** hero ?) anyway some suggest it was step back

It looks”” pretty clear”” we have a sinking high around D8-D10 and its direction of fall will define the upper flow over the UK, with GEM bringing us a warming (average T850s >8c above normal) whilst the GFS a mild flow (T850s +4c above average).  So that's cold rain or warm rain !

It is not yet December!! Is mentioned for the 30th time this month

Lots of talk of faux cold vs real cold, My F*** car and me felt -8c this morning faux or real didn’t matter to the frost

GP mentions “”GFS continues with a highly amplified hemispheric long wave pattern”  and “”Given we're 10-15 days off the critical juncture, there is no way any sane person would be influenced by op GFS runs. Ensembles only! and only then after you've formed a view on the atmospheric dynamic””

This  beats what we had in 1984  all we had was “””looking out of your window and weekly farmers update”” but we still seem to get more snow.

Afternoon

Talked more about background signals and ‘high fatigue’ but we know mother in law is going no where fast  ? are folk missing south westerly gales after south westerly gales ?

12z run comes out from the flip flop model.(GFS) Do we see a tilt ? only with a magnifying glass

Some fold think at T144 (12z)  run is very similar to the 06z no sh** sherlock there 6hrs apart but it does looks better

ukmo build of heights bit further north still very messy most going over the top of the heights rather than under.

Will we see 1962 revisited?! Has been mentioned many times wtf The average house price was £2,530 bring it on.

We are told the Ecm 12z becomes milder next week and the member provides 32 supporting charts, thanks for that

Pattern shift mid December but folks want a chance of lamppost watching at 4am  now and .mood remains depressed.

The Day 10 ECM is full of "potential" but are we set for a typical December . ie 3c rain followed by 12c rain. The jury is out

The mood very down beat today.

3/10 Cold (1.5 for background signals)

Positives  after today. No more its only F*** autumn and the  Astronomical winter season doesn't start till 21 December 2016, so lets not give up on this winter just yet, "all to play for"..

 

 

Edited November 30, 2016 by stewfox

[Ali1977]

The next EC and GLOSEA updates could bring a bombshell on here, or delight (if someone posts them that is) I think of all the times coldies want cold it would be late Dec, the signal has been quite pesistant so if that starts disappearing I for one won't be too happy!! 

Anyway, that's not happened yet so hopefully the pub run will deliver us a classic FI treat. 

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Matt H just killed Santa!  Appreciate the honesty and lack of spin. I think the post sums up a discussion we had in here the other night with Crewe Cold who I don't think is about this evening.

There are absolutely no certainties with weather modelling, and regardless of the massive investment in super computers theres simply no way currently of forecasting accurately at longer range.

I think the only recent winter which went bizarrely smoothly in terms of longer range signal was winter 2009/2010. I think its clear that our current background signals aren't as strong as that. With that in mind theres more fluidity to what we'll get and just as we might have had stronger foundations at the time of the last ECM 46 one suspects a few bricks have been removed.

We'll just have to see what transpires over the next week but Matts update might lower expectations.

 

This isn't a dig at Matt at all, as I happen to think it's better to update forecasts as new data becomes available rather than stand by them and watch them fail ...but

Doesn't that make a complete mockery of seasonal forecasts?

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Matt H just killed Santa!  Appreciate the honesty and lack of spin. I think the post sums up a discussion we had in here the other night with Crewe Cold who I don't think is about this evening.

There are absolutely no certainties with weather modelling, and regardless of the massive investment in super computers theres simply no way currently of forecasting accurately at longer range.

I think the only recent winter which went bizarrely smoothly in terms of longer range signal was winter 2009/2010. I think its clear that our current background signals aren't as strong as that. With that in mind theres more fluidity to what we'll get and just as we might have had stronger foundations at the time of the last ECM 46 one suspects a few bricks have been removed.

We'll just have to see what transpires over the next week but Matts update might lower expectations.

 

Nyet Nick - Matt H has 'killed' nothing...This might be my last statement, this year, but it's nae winter yet!

[northwestsnow]

Is there a new model out called dejavu? im sure ive been here before, before, before, before..

As nick said, as sobering ( and probs inevitable) as matts post is, it might help lower expectations.

Fwiw im convinced we are looking at a sinking high and period of mobility.After that, who knows, imho there is way touch energy in that god damned atlantic to allow for any retrograde, for as far as the eye can see..

 

..

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

When is the next update?

Someone said Friday for the EC I think.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

When is the next update?

EC46 - run midnight, released 10pm fully tomorrow, GLOSEA is much more regular.

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The next EC and GLOSEA updates could bring a bombshell on here, or delight (if someone posts them that is) I think of all the times coldies want cold it would be late Dec, the signal has been quite pesistant so if that starts disappearing I for one won't be too happy!! 

Anyway, that's not happened yet so hopefully the pub run will deliver us a classic FI treat. 

I'm probably just being pessimistic but I'd be amazed if they kept the signal for cold weather.

Anyone else just think it's kind of inevitable? 

[feb1991blizzard]

While we are talking about longer range modelling, Matt only really talked about the sinking, is there any sign of any Greenland height rises by d15 on the eps clusters?

[Singularity]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Matt H just killed Santa!  Appreciate the honesty and lack of spin. I think the post sums up a discussion we had in here the other night with Crewe Cold who I don't think is about this evening.

There are absolutely no certainties with weather modelling, and regardless of the massive investment in super computers theres simply no way currently of forecasting accurately at longer range.

We'll just have to see what transpires over the next week but Matts update might lower expectations.

 

Oh yes - it could certainly all go wrong. That's why we longer-range meteorologists spend our lives spouting 'ifs' and 'buts' or words to that effect. I won't lie, it does get old after a while 

Essentially what has to be done is using broad-scale atmospheric phenomena that connect across large distances to see whether or not the dice might be loaded toward a cold and/or snowy number (it's a weird old dice), and if so, by how much. Yet even a penny stuck in the perfect place doesn't remotely guarantee that the desired number(s) will come up.

This is where the phrase 'cautious optimism' really comes into its own. It's the best we can do until relatively short notice!

I wonder though of Matt could clarify what it is he's seeing in the NWP output that's causing him so much concern in the face of longer-term signals? Thanks in advance 

[IDO]

I am no killjoy but when you see CFS rolling out horror charts like these for Winter you know it may be a long winter where the word "potential" will be a byword for disappointment:

DecJANFEB

[Abyss]

46 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

However, here comes the negative thoughts as things stand; Depending on how model guidance (plus other variables) progress within the next week or so I am beginning to lean towards a possible failure in terms of northern blocking becoming dominant. Clearly a lot of the info for a blocked Dec was discussed within the Winter Forecast but this is a quickly evolving situation now and my optimism for the likes of the EC Monthly et al, to come to fruition are, overall, waning now and I think the possibility of something far more 'typical' for a Dec month is gaining some weight, but we shall see.

 

These background signals always amount to nothing. Same every year with long range forecasts. Hocus pocus crystal ball stuff. If everyone would stick to the reliable time frame there would be no meltdowns in here lol. Not a go at Matt just illustrating that LR FC are useless full stop IMO

Edited November 30, 2016 by Abyss

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

This isn't a dig at Matt at all, as I happen to think it's better to update forecasts as new data becomes available rather than stand by them and watch them fail ...but

Doesn't that make a complete mockery of seasonal forecasts?

No and I'm not a great lover of longer range forecasting. Science only moves forward by pushing those boundaries, if people don't try and learn more and figure out what went wrong and why then progress won't be made. However I do think to a degree we're trying to solve an impossible puzzle. I think more progress will be made in the two week range but theres just too much chaos in the atmosphere for accurate seasonal forecasting. Now of course we do have things that are easier to forecast which can act as a base line going forward however when you add the subsequent variables that can come into play during that forecast period its incredibly difficult especially when dealing with the UK which can often be at the periphery of the cold.

[Ali1977]

Anyone got the longer range ECM EPS? The warm up is clear, but this was expected it's the ones to day 15 that would be good to see if any colder ones cropping up.

And Matt ISN'T saying the long range models for a blocked end Dec are wrong , he is just letting us know he isn't so confident. 

Edited November 30, 2016 by Ali1977

[mulzy]

Chin up folks - winter only begins tomorrow and even though the latest NWP outputs are poor, we know how these can quickly flip.

I am optimistic that the second half of December will deliver some proper wintriness to the UK.

[A.J]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

I am no killjoy but when you see CFS rolling out horror charts like these for Winter you know it may be a long winter where the word "potential" will be a byword for disappointment:

DecJANFEB

thankfully, CFS mean charts for the next 3 months are about as much use as t**s on fish, so I wouldn't worry about it

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Anyone got the longer range ECM EPS? The warm up is clear, but this was expected it's the ones to fmday 15 that would be good to see if any colder ones cropping up.

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nyet Nick - Matt H has 'killed' nothing...This might be my last statement, this year, but it's nae winter yet!

It was a joke and Matt took it that way! Are you still droning on about not winter yet? lol

[BARRY]

The charts are only as good as the people who supply the forecasts

 

[bobbydog]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

I am no killjoy but when you see CFS rolling out horror charts like these for Winter you know it may be a long winter where the word "potential" will be a byword for disappointment:

DecJANFEB

But only yesterday the CFS 'rolled out' a white christmas. I didn't see you posting that....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Tom Jarvis said:

Erm ppl got reports of snow in London 

eh? not possible, uppers getting on for +5°, classic inversion