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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

it's strange , I was feeling down about the models yesterday and was told it wasn't as bad as I was saying and now today I'm more positive but the general mood is gloomier..go figure:drunk-emoji:

Its the lag effect frosty lol:diablo:

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Hope that dartboard low on 18z is way of the mark day 8 as that could be quite severe for the north west.

Edited by booferking

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

it's strange , I was feeling down about the models yesterday and was told it wasn't as bad as I was saying and now today I'm more positive but the general mood is gloomier..go figure:drunk-emoji:

Because there is this HLB belief this month..... there is no arctic lock in....

 

BFTP

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1 minute ago, Gael_Force said:

I'm not criticising Matt or saying he is looking for snow but a lot of the folk on here are. I personally agree that the likelihood is for repeated ridges through the UK but you need something to close them off or it's mild or the much maligned faux cold.

But the GEFS does develop the blues over Europe thereafter??   And the timing from member to member also mutes the signal. One only needs to run through the individual members to see something looks like it's brewing. I think steve is fed up of being led down the undercut path over the past couple weeks! 

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

& this is the 500mb mean at the very same time- whilst the anomaly looks impressive in reality its just less low pressure to the north as opposed to significant blocking-

IMG_9846.PNG

unless there is a substantial height anomaly in that area then these anomaly charts will look pretty with the shaded areas of higher pressure but in reality its actually not indicitive of a cold pattern ( although could develop into one )

 

S

I think that's what many here are looking for, not the cold spell but the prospects of one occurring in Christmas week.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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38 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

e98c4d12-5352-43de-9034-03e5f0a61475.png

 

From my limited experience of following models via. these threads, that seems the most likely evolution to me in the medium to longer term.

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Anyway "matt gate" aside the 18z seems to be on the up 190 hrs plus!.the deep low is less intense and heigths from iceland to greenland are better than the 12z if only slightly.

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3 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Its the lag effect frosty lol:diablo:

I think its to do with the fact that people expected the undercut, when in reality the sinker was always very strong odds on, the actual FI ensembles now are very good (relative to the norm), just not sure whether they will grow or not.

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12z ecm ensembles for Zurich see a further lowering of the mean, and a nice clear cluster of colder runs gaining momentum as well...

Patience (Yes, more.)

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-04 at 22.33.54.png

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12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Because there is this HLB belief this month..... there is no arctic lock in....

 

BFTP

Arctic lock in for January eh fred:D

Anyway, I'm seeing positives, some of us have already seen ice days and severe night frosts with freezing fog and I think that will return post mild spell..all to play for, get the surface cold back and use that as a launch pad to possible deeper cold just before xmas and new year which some of those gefs perturbations showed earlier on the 12z..some real peaches they were!

Edited by Frosty.
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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But the GEFS does develop the blues over Europe thereafter??   And the timing from member to member also mutes the signal. One only needs to run through the individual members to see something looks like it's brewing. I think steve is fed up of being led down the undercut path over the past couple weeks! 

The undercut path? The only significant European troughing signal we have been made aware of over the past few weeks was by Ian giving an update on the ECM long ranger Mid November.

I've yet to see any publically available modelling which has shown a strong Euro troughing signal in its extended range.

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The undercut path? The only significant European troughing signal we have been made aware of over the past few weeks was by Ian giving an update on the ECM long ranger Mid November.

I've yet to see any publically available modelling which has shown a strong Euro troughing signal in its extended range.

I meant the possible undercuts that ukmo modelled or looked likely to evolve to (plus the recurve jet potential on couple of GFS and ECM runs). 

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2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Cluster 3, another 15% go for a high just to our NW too...

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Just now, bluearmy said:

I meant the possible undercuts that ukmo modelled or looked likely to evolve to (plus the recurve jet potential on couple of GFS and ECM runs). 

Oh right, yes can see where you're coming from with that. 

I'll jump for joy the moment that we see a solid signal for lowered heights across the continent.

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Batten down the hatches !18z is very zonal and unsettled -thats another gfs op that cranks up the jet ...

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I follow the MJO quite closely and for me the lag ( that word second time tonight) is around 14,15 days

The change to more Zonal conditions is more likely when the MJO is strong and particularly when in phase 1 or 8

A weak MJO appears to be more likely to allow heights to build in Northwest Europe and that is one reason i think in 15 days time we will see hints of that very scenario.

The Mjo is looking to become 2 or 3 and that effect will follow through.

I mention the other two significant factors  - Solar minimum and La Nina

These 3 things should allow Height building near where we want and  the NAO to become weak to negative

The polar Vortex can also be effected but the major effects on that are well known here and i can not see a direct link with MJO.

I am quite happy with what the models show today as down stream looks interesting  but of course  all this is just part of a bigger picture and many triggers need to be put in place for us here in Uk next to what might as well be a warm bath. (Atlantic Ocean)

I show below the forecast for MJO 

 

 

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full-2.gif

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It's about time they sacked off the gfs 18z. Always way off the mark imo. By the way, in this instance, that is a very good sign for the second half of the month. I would be very worried if it was showing a raging easterly in 12 days. Inverted is the word for the hapless 18z. Whatever it shows, just think the opposite. 18z op is what I am referring to.

Edited by blizzard81
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Batten down the hatches !18z is very zonal and unsettled -thats another gfs op that cranks up the jet ...

Fair one, if the ENS are showing blocking potential it would be nice to see the Op hop on board!! - of course the Op could be on the money. Another day, another day closer to the warm week coming - finishing!! 

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21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But the GEFS does develop the blues over Europe thereafter??   And the timing from member to member also mutes the signal. One only needs to run through the individual members to see something looks like it's brewing. I think steve is fed up of being led down the undercut path over the past couple weeks! 

This the MSLP probabilities for the GEFS 12z run. Have set for sub 1000mb and don't see much in the way of low pressure in the late stages of the run.

tempresult_vdl8.gif

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

e98c4d12-5352-43de-9034-03e5f0a61475.png

 

I don't have a problem with the anomaly being posted, as I and others have said, both the GEFS and ecm are hinting at this. But I will say care has to be taken with a chart that is just the anomaly and not a 500mb contour chart as well as you have no idea where the high cell will be either at 500mb or on the surface. If you compare the chart with one that does have the 500mb analysis you can see that the surface HP will almost certainly be centred W/SW of the UK which will be under a NW flow

gefs_z500a_nh_53.pngMatt.png

Edited by knocker
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Just now, Ali1977 said:

Cluster 3, another 15% go for a high just to our NW too...

Yes.I think the main thing to take from these is we have a trend to slow the Atlantic jet down after next week.Maybe no strong signal for Arctic blocking but a sign that we see further ridging in the Atlantic and the strong possibility of some form of high cell nearb rather than a transient ridge.It would be a starter with a chance of something colder if the MJO develops and starts it's move towards the Pacific entering more favourable phases for a  cold blocking pattern. 

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Batten down the hatches !18z is very zonal and unsettled -thats another gfs op that cranks up the jet ...

5 big storms i counted hope 18z has been in the jaffa cakeser.

Edited by booferking

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17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Arctic lock in for January eh fred:D

Anyway, I'm seeing positives, some of us have already seen ice days and severe night frosts with freezing fog and I think that will return post mild spell..all to play for, get the surface cold back and use that as a launch pad to possible deeper cold just before xmas and new year which some of those gefs perturbations showed earlier on the 12z..some real peaches they were!

Karl

Oh yes reasons to be cheerful.....GFS imo showing signs of the potential troughing that could be pretty cold ahead

 

BFTP

 

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