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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

e98c4d12-5352-43de-9034-03e5f0a61475.png

 

I really respect matt as a meteorologist. But I'm starting to get the feeling that likes and click bait are becoming his aim!!! That's so far away to be not worthy of mention.

Edited by Rocheydub
Wow, old post replicated again... Mad laptop in charge!

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25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There had - 1981.

Yes, you are right. Remember it well. It was really cold. I was snowbound in the Chiltern. Guess I was thinking, as a hardened 1962/3 veteran,  of the last sub zero cet:)

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3 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

What would this mean?

I think this winter is akin to 2005/6 or 2008/9 - mild pockets intercepted with cold. January and February are the proper cold months. December is just the last bits of Autumn being gunked out. 

Heights favoured north = better chance of colder weather doesn't necessary relate to snow.

 

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Just now, SN0WM4N said:

Heights favoured north = better chance of colder weather doesn't necessary relate to snow.

 

Thank you - I'd take that! 

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The models may not be showing anything of interest right now for cold / snow 

however lets take a good look at the gefs

The operational and Control are both Outliers

Lets first look towards Scandinavia, we could do with heights building there

The run shows the op going for low pressure but the mean is very much in the higher pressure, the control follows this/

Then we look at the 850mb and again control and op both are out on their own so if we take the mean its looking quite a lot better.

Finally lets look at London and again 850mb temp, again the mean is a lot better.

A disrupted polar vortex

Low sunspot count

La Nina

Huge chance that a Scandi high theme will be the talking point this winter.

We have just 4 days of winter so far, the Mountains (Brecon beacons, & Black mountains (still have some snow on them.

This time last year Cunbria was facing floods and mild weather was predominant.

There is nothing to say GFS and GEFS op is not correct ( at least fairly so) however as most seasoned users know even subtle differences on day 5 make huge differences come day 10

I will say that the mean as always shows the scatter at that period and that technically a Scandi high is most likely to become prominent as it has for much of the Autumn.

I would prefer the models to have the milder interludes now than late December onwards when we have the best chance of deep entrenched cold/

I think expectations have been much too high recently, so far this late Autumn and early winter has been full of promise and at least crisp and cold at times. Its still early for full blown winter and this winter has many possibilities  ahead. 

The 18z GFS seems to have everything further Southwards on this run, i suspect no fat lady singing at the end but these slight variations show the complete uncertainty at under 6 days which become huge later on

 

prmslOslo.png

t850Oslo.png

t850London.png

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7 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I really respect matt as a meteorologist. But I'm starting to get the feeling that likes and click bait are becoming his aim!!! That's so far away to be not worthy of mention.

It's his personal twitter. And the signal is there and it backs what he has said.

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18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

e98c4d12-5352-43de-9034-03e5f0a61475.png

 

You need to be careful with those anomalies; that's not much different to what we have just had with the strongest positive between Scotland and Iceland. It just reflects there is normally a big low there.

ECM101-0_idl8.GIF

If people are looking for a cold snowy easterly there would need to be blues through Iberia: pink just shows it is the usual high pressure down there.

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Since my pessimistic stance which I was heavily criticised for on Friday, things have improved significantly, yet others seem to have a much more downbeat attitude tonight, still I think odds against a proper cold and snowy spell - its going to be a close run thing but I think this next weeks modelling is going to be crucial in whether we have a chance of a memorable winter or whether we are feeding off the scraps again.

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18z has slightly better heights pushing into greenland at  144hrs.low not as deep and slight distruption also.may not amount to much but its there

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3 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

You need to be careful with those anomalies; that's not much different to what we have just had with the strongest positive between Scotland and Iceland. It just reflects there is normally a big low there.

ECM101-0_idl8.GIF

If people are looking for a cold snowy easterly there would need to be blues through Iberia: pink just shows it is the usual high pressure down there.

True, but in fairness Matt isn't looking for easterlies, more a discontinuation to the mobile westerly pattern later this month :)

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Seriously i do wonder why Matt and Ian even bother coming in here during the winter months.... if they say cold they shot down for ramping if they say mild they are shot down for having said cold then mild.... they come in here to give us an insite into what the met office etc are thinking.... it is not there fault if its not 2 feet of snow and minus 20 as it is not there fault if its wet and plus 20.... give these guys a break and be thankful that they even bother to come on here and give us the info they do....

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

& this is the 500mb mean at the very same time- whilst the anomaly looks impressive in reality its just less low pressure to the north as opposed to significant blocking-

IMG_9846.PNG

unless there is a substantial height anomaly in that area then these anomaly charts will look pretty with the shaded areas of higher pressure but in reality its actually not indicitive of a cold pattern ( although could develop into one )

 

S

Yes, you really need a black hole involved on those meteociel anomaly charts to denote a stonking big ridge in the Greenland area.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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21 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I really respect matt as a meteorologist. But I'm starting to get the feeling that likes and click bait are becoming his aim!!! That's so far away to be not worthy of mention.

Well in a way yes as confidence wanes and grows and a Matt has posted his thoughts of how Dec may be a blow out.,,, though heart on sleeve is something I like a lot

 

BFTP

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Just now, mhielte said:

True, but in fairness Matt isn't looking for easterlies, more a discontinuation to the mobile westerly pattern later this month :)

I'm not criticising Matt or saying he is looking for snow but a lot of the folk on here are. I personally agree that the likelihood is for repeated ridges through the UK but you need something to close them off or it's mild or the much maligned faux cold.

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3 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

You need to be careful with those anomalies; that's not much different to what we have just had with the strongest positive between Scotland and Iceland. It just reflects there is normally a big low there.

ECM101-0_idl8.GIF

If people are looking for a cold snowy easterly there would need to be blues through Iberia: pink just shows it is the usual high pressure down there.

Good points (though I'd have the low anomalies south of France and over toward Italy), but when looking so far ahead it's worth noting any grouping in more unusual positions that takes place. 

The reason being that differences in the timing of height rises allow prior low pressure systems to wash out the signal (e.g. a run with a D14 Atlantic trough then a progression to a D16 Atlantic ridge will wash out the signal of one with a D14 Atlantic ridge then a progression to a D16 Atlantic trough) - hence the means for actual 500 hPa instead of anomalies rarely look up to much at more than 10 days range.

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Just now, Gael_Force said:

I'm not criticising Matt or saying he is looking for snow but a lot of the folk on here are. I personally agree that the likelihood is for repeated ridges through the UK but you need something to close them off or it's mild or the much maligned faux cold.

Yes agreed. FWIW I know you weren't criticising Matt :) But worth you pointing out others are looking for snowier signals in the anomalies that aren't present at the moment :santa-emoji:

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