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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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All,

First post here so please treat me gently! Interesting synoptics despite this weeks probably brief warm up. I've been lurking for many years and the charts/models seem to indicate to me the possibility of a euro-high regressing to Scandinavian/Shetland centralised high leading to the possibility of longish term blocking. As said new to this and can't quote evidence, but I've been watching for plenty of years and some of the recurring chart patterns put me in mind of winters past when something similar has happened. Can anyone add a bit of science to this?-or tell me why it won't happen!

  Thanks

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A disappointing ECM run until day ten which showed an improving NH pattern but we've seen this before with day ten charts never managing to get any closer. Earlier the ECM backtracked from its 00hrs run with less made of the ridging from the north and more energy going ne.

Overall after a few frosty nights early on the next ten days barring some better trough disruption look generally mild with wettest conditions in the far north. The Euro slug high slowly weakens its grip. Unfortunately still no sign of any appreciable snow for the ski resorts and they will be praying for a change because this could turn into yet another terrible Christmas season following on from recent years.

 

 

To be fair though Nick, any potential cold interest is beyond day 10 ecm range, more likely almost two weeks down the road, just hope for one of those sensational gefs perturbations:cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.

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I thoroughly enjoy your posts Steve but I'm not sure that's a fair reflection. Are we going to see cold and snow before the 3rd week of December? No. But that's been clear to virtually everyone for the last week. Given the GEFS long range trends over the weekend, coupled with the renewed GloSea signals, similar signals in ECM ens trend, expert support, and the most recent final frame on the ECM leaning towards a more amplified pattern, I don't see how we are worse now than 48 hours ago? Seems a bit odd really. If we are still holding onto the long range forecasts that were launched in early-mid November, then yes there is reason to be dissappointed. Otherwise, I would be more optimistic now than at any stage in the last few days for the longer term. This week's milder weather has been nailed for several days...

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1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Right...so it's all going wrong but yet it's all looking good. Nice we've cleared that up.  Low objectivity alert. lol

Lol! Yes I can see why it might be confusing. There are some tentative signs if you look at the GEFS but I think many in here have seen this all before especially as any signs of life are well into week 2. I'd ignore anything past T240hrs in the GEFS and wait to see something appear within day ten which actually moves forward rather than stays marooned at that range.

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14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Woeful runs today

GFS now has 10 runs reaching above average 60N zonal wind speeds - ( post 192 ) thats up 5 from yesterday

its rapidly going pete tong im afraid.

UKMO 144 is about the best chart today..

Would you have a link for the 60N mean zonal wind speed forecasts, Steve? I asked on the strat thread but didn't get a response. found this:

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra2/wind/u60n_10_2016_merra2.txt

 

but I don't think it's the same source as you're using. Thanks.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Woeful runs today

GFS now has 10 runs reaching above average 60N zonal wind speeds - ( post 192 ) thats up 5 from yesterday

its rapidly going pete tong im afraid.

UKMO 144 is about the best chart today..

Chin up Steve, I was down yesterday but I'm seeing positive signs today 're weeks 3 and 4:clapping:

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Lol! Yes I can see why it might be confusing. There are some tentative signs if you look at the GEFS but I think many in here have seen this all before especially as any signs of life are well into week 2. I'd ignore anything past T240hrs in the GEFS and wait to see something appear within day ten which actually moves forward rather than stays marooned at that range.

Yep.  I'm used to it all having been on here over 6 years, but i'm just concerned about people who have been here more like 6 months or less and who can't always follow the subtle twists and turns. :-)

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1 minute ago, snowwman said:

Would you have a link for the 60N mean zonal wind speed forecasts, Steve? I asked on the strat thread but didn't get a response. found this:

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/figures/merra2/wind/u60n_10_2016_merra2.txt

 

but I don't think it's the same source as you're using. Thanks.

 

 

Try this-

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php

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Just now, Frosty. said:

Chin up Steve, I was down yesterday but I'm seeing positive signs today 're weeks 3 and 4:clapping:

three and four frosty?????.love your positive attitude pal looking at the current output ete.Oh you coudnt send me next weeks lotto numbers could you!!!:rofl:

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It's fair to say nothing of any interest for cold is showing in the next 10 days at least and i amongst quite a few are continuing to monitor the ens outputs.These continue to show a colder trend after day 10 as we have seen recently.Some of them posted by Frosty earlier on-here's the link 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=312

The encouraging thing is that looking at today's 12z stamps at day 13 compared to yesterday's 12z for day 14 there is an increased number of members showing Atlantic blocking developing.Yesterday 7 or 8- today i would say 11 out of 20. 

That is just the overall pattern whether we get the higher latitude blocking we are looking for is another question.There is still a wide spread on the type of Atlantic pattern we may get but there are increased signs from the gefs at least of the Atlantic jet being split and/or blocked beyond mid-month.

 

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Just now, swfc said:

three and four frosty?????.love your positive attitude pal looking at the current output ete.Oh you coudnt send me next weeks lotto numbers could you!!!:rofl:

Lol I really do see positive signs today, the Gefs mean trends colder after the mild spell with temps dipping below average by the second half of Dec, the met office extended outlook still sounds chilly with frost and fog too..

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Sc.png

Has probably been mentioned before, but looks like a Scandy high developing. I know its FI but does seem to develop as you go through the sequence.

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Some big updates the next few days with EC46 and GLOSEA, just hoping the GEFS are onto something and the GLOSEA sticks to its guns. Maybe we'll see the wording on the METO Update improve again if so

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17 minutes ago, ITSY said:

I thoroughly enjoy your posts Steve but I'm not sure that's a fair reflection. Are we going to see cold and snow before the 3rd week of December? No. But that's been clear to virtually everyone for the last week. Given the GEFS long range trends over the weekend, coupled with the renewed GloSea signals, similar signals in ECM ens trend, expert support, and the most recent final frame on the ECM leaning towards a more amplified pattern, I don't see how we are worse now than 48 hours ago? Seems a bit odd really. If we are still holding onto the long range forecasts that were launched in early-mid November, then yes there is reason to be dissappointed. Otherwise, I would be more optimistic now than at any stage in the last few days for the longer term. This week's milder weather has been nailed for several days...

Quote

 

I very much agree with this. Following the thread and output over the last week or so it seems to me that the possible change to colder conditions was generally thought to be in the second half of the month - I think I'm right in saying that's what the long range models were/are indicating?  As it's only the 4th then any moves towards that change would only be seen towards the end of the outputs and certainly not in the reliable time frame yet. The ens seem to be moving in the right direction. I think there's plenty to be hopeful about and maybe the output will improve enough to keep us going through the mild mush of the next week to ten days. If in ten days time the models still look as poor then yeah, the prospects for Christmas cold won't be great. Lots of model runs to get through before then though.

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we just need to get this upcoming mild spell out of the way and things could be looking brighter for the majority on netweather who are looking for more lovely cold and then hopefully some white fluffy stuff!:D

Edited by Frosty.

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23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A disappointing ECM run until day ten which showed an improving NH pattern but we've seen this before with day ten charts never managing to get any closer. Earlier the ECM backtracked from its 00hrs run with less made of the ridging from the north and more energy going ne.

Overall after a few frosty nights early on the next ten days barring some better trough disruption look generally mild with wettest conditions in the far north. The Euro slug high slowly weakens its grip. Unfortunately still no sign of any appreciable snow for the ski resorts and they will be praying for a change because this could turn into yet another terrible Christmas season following on from recent years.

 

 

The models today have made me feel very uneasy. Euro high slap bang over the Eastern Alps for the next 10 days. Think I will cancel our snow portal service for this time span. Shame about the UK cold to fade away this week, slowly then with s renewed flood of Tm airmass by Thursday with temps progged for 16c for Eastern Parts. At least not the volume of rain as was the case this time last year for you lot. Fingers crossed for a return to more seasonal winter charts in two weeks time. Sometimes reading the charts leaves you with gut wrenching feeling and this latest run is one of them!

C

 

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In ten days time it will be ten days to Xmas... What were the models saying ten days ago for this week?

Im not convinced that we could be that confident of the Xmas weather in ten days time.

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2 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Well, let's just compare 4th December. Almost nailed it :D

gfs-0-240.png?12gfs-0-6.png?12

just go's to show how much can happen

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I think by mid-week we will see the models starting to see change on its way, hopefully cold is in favor.  :smile:

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Just looking back at all the runs from the 24th, ECM did a decent job but GFS woeful

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looking back at all the runs from the 24th, ECM did a decent job but GFS woeful

What's New?:D

Anyway, we know high res looks mostly mild but I'm more interested in what's around the corner post T+192

P.S..thanks Hanny (Karl):santa-emoji:

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