Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

[Sweatyman]

9 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

.........Brazilian anyone?

Always said the cptec bam was ace...

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

So if it's going to turn cold by mid month I would expect to see the models to start to show that in the latter part of the runs soon.,the ukmo 144 charts always seem very poor and rarely verify

Not in a single Ops run at the moment you won't. Mid month is T+360 away, Uk Met doesn't even go half that far.

[johncam]

terrible charts in the reliable time frame for the Scottish ski resorts :-( , need to hope the experts get the second half of Dec right!

[ITSY]

THERE IS NO MASSIVE PATTERN SHIFT EXPECTED BEFORE MID-DECEMBER. Repeat, there is no.... 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Once again, the charts only look poor for cold within day 10 as no one really should be expecting them too. It is only from mid month onwards that a change to colder conditions are expected.

The forecasts by the Met office, GP, Tamara etc.. have all said mid month onwards, so why would you expect the models to be any different?

People are looking at possible evolution toward HLB.

Nobody can predict the weather at that range, they are encouraging probabilistic forecasts based on background signals and long range models, hopefully they are right, but they may be wrong. Just don't expect an inextricable march toward cold and blocked mid month or a magic wand to be waved and to see HLB and a stunning cold set up for the UK if we aren't seeing it modeled within 192 by end of 1st week Dec.

Even if it was set in stone it would still be interesting to see how the models go about fixing the building blocks in place.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Looking out to t144 ECM and GFS are pretty close

Both going for a southwesterly flow still chilly at first but gradually turning milder as the week progress especially so for the west and south

Maybe they'll both be wrong but I don't see anything too cold next week based on the charts tonight

Edited November 30, 2016 by Summer Sun

[jonboy]

2 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Indeed, NAO gaining digits as well as general strengthening of the PV, no surprise given the recent output from the sun.

Sorry don't get that last bit?

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO is 2nd to ECM at t144 based over the past month

2nd worst or 2nd best? always seems poor to me, especially when it shows cold easterlies one day and mild swly zephyrs the next!

[snowblizzard]

Different to what we've had to put up with during the past 3-4 years!

But, dreadful charts if it's severe cold & snow you're looking for! 

[knocker]

The jet leaving the Southern States full of beans and energy as it runs around the south of Atlantic trough and then NE up western flank of the re amplifying Azores ridge is causing some temporary mayhem. It pushes the HP SE and allows a trough to track SE across the country bringing some wet and windy weather from T192 inwards. But fear not the status quo is quickly resumed.

Edited November 30, 2016 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

Given the output at day 6, I would urge caution on how things will pan out next week, whilst this may contradict with other people who have posted here, not one model showed this push of warm air north westwards over the top of a deep Atlantic low shown here on the ECM but fairly representative of the output.

Whilst we return to a milder westerly pattern it is no by the route suggested on countless GFS operationals where the trough was aligned SW/NE from the onset as opposed to here where warm air manages to push towards Greenland. Given developments over this suite and given the chances of weak heights developing to our north/north west. It would be best to keep an open mind as we could see further wild swings in the mid-term. 

[nick sussex]

Well at least the ECM has attempted to flatten the Euro high and its overall NH pattern is better than this morning but overall not much to shout about upto T240hrs.

Its a shame events within T144hrs conspire to deliver the worst possible outcome from what on paper was a decent looking set up. Barring some miracle of Biblical proportions I think we're going to see a period of milder conditions as the Euro high sinks and then have to hope that the jet can be forced far enough south to remove the high.

[weirpig]

I'll think I'll look at this thread again when sanity resumes   

Edited November 30, 2016 by weirpig

[mother nature rocks]

I know noone really mentions( or believes in )the CFS V2 but if you want cheering up and get in the Xmas spirit have a look. The country would be in lockdown!! Bring on winter!!!

[Bristawl Si]

10 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Much much higher than average sea surface temperatures just off the Coast of the US/Newfoundland, will enhance any depressions as they come into entrance with the NA jet.

ECM also fires up a rather stormy looking feature.

Hang on a mo. No one has uttered the words "We need to reset and start again"....

One of the infamous NW winter phrases.

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I'll think I'll look at this thread again when sanity resumes  

Happy Christmas see you next year! lmao If you want sanity you've come to the wrong place. I'm afraid Weir that the wonder of this place is that we're not sane, are obsessed with snow, can't sleep if snow is forecast. In my case 49 going on 9. I thought I'd grow out of this snow obsession but absolutely no sign of that. Most people think I'm unhinged and when I say I'm going off to check the outputs give that " oh dear" look and say are you off to see the " snow people"! Anyway I think the frustration is understandable at the moment, things will calm down once theres more solid prospects for some snow, whenever that might be.

[Methuselah]

I'm not at all pessimistic (winter hasn't even started yet!)...So far, we have the GFS suggesting an attack of either PM or RPM air - AM at a stretch - at around the 12th December or thereabouts...I think, and I may be mistaken, that that scenario is broadly in line with what the MetO is suggesting?

So, so far (I think) there is ample room for continued optimism. But we mustn't get too excited!

[Duane S.]

I see many falling over themselves to put the mockers on things before winter has even started, to be expected, has always been the case in these circumstances, best not bite...

Anyway, as expected, as the second half of December onwards starts comes into range so has (and so will continue) the eye candy charts. Of course, there will be plenty to come that will show us the wrong side of the block / with spoiler vortex segments / a snowy Athens etc but these are all just variations on the theme driven by the background signal that supports the best opportunity of a cracking Mid December to January (and beyond) for many a year.

 

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm not at all pessimistic (winter hasn't even started yet!)...So far, we have the GFS suggesting an attack of either PM or RPM air - AM at a stretch - at around the 12th December or thereabouts...I think, and I may be mistaken, that that scenario is broadly in line with what the MetO is suggesting?

So, so far (I think) there is ample room for continued optimism. But we mustn't get too excited!

well your allowed to get excited but only a tad

[phil nw.]

Just a reminder please keep posts model related. One recent post was removed.

Please keep banter to the correct thread please.

Thanks.

 

[mountain shadow]

The Day 10 ECM is full of "potential". It's not hard to see how a change of wavelength and perhaps some tropical forcing could pull the slug West and then North.

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm not at all pessimistic (winter hasn't even started yet!)...So far, we have the GFS suggesting an attack of either PM or RPM air - AM at a stretch - at around the 12th December or thereabouts...I think, and I may be mistaken, that that scenario is broadly in line with what the MetO is suggesting?

So, so far (I think) there is ample room for continued optimism. But we mustn't get too excited!

I can't wait for tomorrow then nobody will be able to say "it isn't even winter yet"  

[knocker]

27 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I'll think I'll look at this thread again when sanity resumes   

See you in April then. Take care.

[Hotspur62]

I think part of the reason there seems to be despondency on here this evening is things were looking much more promising this time yesterday and with the UKMO showing heights drifting Northwards there was optimism that the POTENTIAL cold spell forecasted by some of the experts maybe bought forward a few days.The reality is though that any cold spell forecast was not until midmonth(15th/16Th) and the likely hood is we would have a milder spell next week.This indeed looks like happening with the High sinking SE into central Europe and a period of mobility then resulting for a short period.I think IF from the Met Office has been quite clear on this for quite a while now and as others have said it is strange for the downbeat mood on here. I would love snowmaggedden like most on here but it just aint going to happen for the next 2 weeks at least so lower your expectations for goodness sake lol!!

Today it dipped to -2.5 here with a maximum of just 2.3 reached in early afternoon. I for one wouldn"t mind a period of slighter milder temperatures(i work outside for a living so it would be nice to feel my feet again!!) so save a few bob on the heating bills for a short while as i think the heating will be on overtime later on this month.. 

[knocker]

In case people are on tenterhooks vis the latest EPS AO forecast the mean is very slightly negative until the 14th. The GEFS much the same.