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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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Judging by the GEFS 6z mean, it won't be mild for long, definite drop in temps towards mid month onwards with increasing night frosts and fog.

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Edited by Frosty.

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Judging by the GEFS 6z mean, it won't be mild for long, definite drop in temps towards mid month onwards with increasing night frosts and fog.

I think that is an accurate summary of the models so far today :)

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Yes, i have noted we seem to be constantly getting ops at the milder end of the ens.The problem with that is in my experience thats fine for a one off but over a period of time tends to lead to a poor outcome, the meto still talking of things settling down mid month, but im personally not convinced.will add i will be delighted if something akin to fog and frost does come to fruition tho..:)

Edited by northwestsnow

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53 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes i think that's the main trend wrt to mid-month.Ens.outputs remain consistent with this period and the decline in temperatures is not being put back.

Latest London graph

ensemble-tt6-london (1).gif

The 00z Op runs again at the mild end of the members.

Looking at day 14 of the gef stamps and quite a lot of Atlantic ridging being modeled and the uncertainty of how this may manifest itself shows up in the spreads on that area.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=360

and the trend for +ve heights again to the ne gens-21-5-360.png

so some kind of change is afoot by the looks.

 

Indeed, and when comparing that to the EC 46 anomaly from 2 runs ago for the following week:

modelanalysis.thumb.PNG.a12e91bc7e94c7b919874e369db7a684.PNG

Doesn't look that different does it. Much uncertainty at the moment, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the next EC 46 backtrack towards such a trend, so it will be very interesting to see what its next run offers.

Edited by Ice BIast

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Irish Met service in their weekly 5-7 day forecast outlook this afternoon now talking about the likelihood of an intense anticyclone (euro slug) setting up shop over central Europe as we near next weekend. The prospect of this happening doesn't auger well for any shortening of the upcoming mild spell, except for the fact it would deflect the first possible major Atlantic storm of the season from our shores, which they highly anticipate.

slug dec 9.JPG

slug dec 10.JPG

Edited by Newberryone
forgot to enter a few key words

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 the latest uk met update is not good news for the Scottish ski resorts if it happens there will be no sking in december as we go from mild and wet to dry and surface cold :-(

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4 hours ago, jy said:

As a fellow veteran of Snow watch, Nick was one of the few sane there,excellent summings up then as now,however,as many on here have said,cold weather can arrive out of the blue as it were,so because the models show mild for a while,so be it,10 day ahead forecasts are fun to look at,but in the grand scheme of things little else.

As jy says...pointless looking into 10days ahead, it will do what it wants too... but the thing is, it's nothing like last year AT ALL!! it's already better...and we've only just started winter...I'll nail mi cap to the post, from mid month, ie 16th onwards... will go the coldies way?? I HOPE!!...as I'd have to buy a cap, post...put post up and buy hammer n nails :fool:

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Well the lack of comments on the gfs12z and ukmo tonight speaks volumes I think.

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5 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well the lack of comments on the gfs12z and ukmo tonight speaks volumes I think.

the UKMO at 144h aint to bad with slim heights to our north its atleast better than the GFS which is as flat as a pancake

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9 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well the lack of comments on the gfs12z and ukmo tonight speaks volumes I think.

A bit early yet , it's beyond day 12 we need to look for potential I think

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

A bit early yet , it's beyond day 12 we need to look for potential I think

And that is the problem right there Ali, its back to skipping through to Fi for slithers of hope.....

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

And that is the problem right there Ali, its back to skipping through to Fi for slithers of hope.....

Yep your dead right everything is always the Fi onto the GEFS & ECM..

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Low pressure to the northwest is never a good sign for getting cold weather in

Cy2JMACXgAQPArh.jpg

It's becoming a familiar story of past winters cold hunting in FI

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Another one to add to many possible outcomes mid-month onwards. Interesting times ahead.

 

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4 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Surface cold is of course more acceptable than a mild moist sw'erly flow however most people in here want to see some snow. Surface cold is acceptable if the high that brings it then retrogresses. I wish I could be more optimistic and I often do try and find some positives in the outputs, the ECM does have some hope but that's it I'm afraid.

yep spot on

tbh i didnt think the 6z was great but what can you say about the 12z!!! flat  and the nhp looks shocking.only one run"did i just say that" but even with thw best will in the world zero positives for me.

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17 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yep your dead right everything is always the Fi onto the GEFS & ECM..

True and it is just straw clutching , however we know it's going to be warmer for a week or so it's a case for looking beyond this and anything beyond this is FI . The last few runs the trend is for something cooler or cold beyond mid month and this has support by the METO at the minute.

GFS op isn't good but lets see if the ENS still show a cool down, and if so when that looks like coming. 

Edited by Ali1977

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2 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Another one to add to many possible outcomes mid-month onwards. Interesting times ahead.

 

yep another trend showing potential!!!phew

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Well that GFS 12z was grimmer than the grim reaper on a grim day in a grim tale by the Brothers Grimm.

UKMO looks like it might have gone on to have cut off heights to the N at least.

UN144-21.GIF?04-17

Hoping GFS ensembles have a little more festive cheer.

Edited by Mucka

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 perfect Synoptics late Dec and Jan can be much more severe than Dec so I wouldn't grumble if the height anomaly posted above came off.

Edited by Ali1977

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