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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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Some people need to get a grip. It's the weather for pete's sake, not war and peace. 

Back to this morning's runs - the op and parallel endings should offer rays of encouragement. Await the ensembles and assess from there. Amplification does appear to have toned down somewhat since yesterday's 06Z output, but the NH profile towards the end of FI is certainly encouraging. Sure, no raging blizzards just yet, but way more than a few straws to clutch at. Anyone who wants guaranteed snow and no 'fun' model watching should move to Alaska and have done with it. 

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ECM mean at T300. Signs of pressure pulling back west.

ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500mean

Eventually moves back towards the UK - possibly supporting the UK High theory. Possibilities of heights building to our west and east not to be discounted either.

Heights much lower in Europe. Not mild. (probably!)

GEFS trickling out meanwhile - another pulse of heights by T192, mostly giving SWlys at this stage but a few build heights in such a way to produce a very different outcome.

gensnh-14-1-192.png

showing that model certainty perhaps isn't that high about what the next round of ridging will do

Edited by Man With Beard

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Block to the N/NE becoming evident in some of the ENS even by day 12. 

A few examples at day 13 below , JFF but definitely a good trend.

IMG_3690.PNG

IMG_3691.PNG

IMG_3692.PNG

IMG_3693.PNG

IMG_3694.PNG

IMG_3696.PNG

IMG_3697.PNG

Edited by Ali1977

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I admire the positivity of those trying to keep the Prozac helpline from being overwhelmed but I do sense we're chasing shadows here.

The outputs today bar some brief interest from the ECM at T168hrs are dire. Theres not enough amplification upstream and so we can never force low pressure into central Europe, rather slow moving low pressure near the UK just waits for another low upstream to phase with it which then takes the energy ne.

If it hadn't been for that ECM T168hrs output I may have well been in need of some Prozac myself. Unless theres a quick turnaround in the outputs then many December forecasts look like needing a hasty re-write.

There are certain key ingredients for real cold in the UK, low pressure either over northern Italy or low pressure to the east/ne running sw. Neither of those look on the cards and another limpet high over the UK with no low heights to support it may well deliver some surface cold but won't deliver snow.

If we see an increase in amplitude upstream my current negative tone will change but until we see pressure falling over central/southern Europe then the outlook is poor.

The ECM is by far the best output today as it at least shows a chance for a Christmas Miracle the rest are beyond redemption.

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The 06z shows a gradual cool down as we move into the 2nd half of the month though it takes a few goes to get it in

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

Christmas week would start on a seasonal note with temps firmly in low single figures

Edited by Summer Sun

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Just now, nick sussex said:

but I do sense we're chasing shadows here.

 

I said the same thing yesterday but today I sense a subtle improvement 're surface cold, frost and fog..similar to tonight for the second half of Dec.

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FI ENS mean looking better with this run too. 

IMG_3698.PNG

Cherry picked but a few similar ones.

IMG_3699.PNG

Edited by Ali1977

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I said the same thing yesterday but today I sense a subtle improvement 're surface cold, frost and fog..similar to tonight for the second half of Dec.

Surface cold is of course more acceptable than a mild moist sw'erly flow however most people in here want to see some snow. Surface cold is acceptable if the high that brings it then retrogresses. I wish I could be more optimistic and I often do try and find some positives in the outputs, the ECM does have some hope but that's it I'm afraid.

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The best ENS so far I think on 6z. At least for central Europe.

graphe3_1000___18.3018867925_49.83805668

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4 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

The best ENS so far I think on 6z. At least for central Europe.

graphe3_1000___18.3018867925_49.83805668

Unfortunately, most of us are not in central europe but like I said earlier, I don't think the uk mild spell will last longer than a week and then we will see a return of fog and frost with more seasonal temps and cold where fog lingers.

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Just now, Frosty. said:

Unfortunately, most of us are not in central europe but like I said earlier, I don't think the uk mild spell will last longer than a week and then we will see a return of fog and frost with more seasonal temps and cold where fog lingers.

I think Frosty that eventually even the UK would benefit from cold pool over Europe. We have to start somewhere :) 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent post Nick, you are such a level headed and respected member of the community because you are utterly impartial and objective in your analysis of the models, and lets be frank here, for cold and snow lovers we really are in a poor place.There is little if any blocking where we need it, of course it can change unexpectedly, and we are of course only in the first week of Dec.

Thanks. I don't want people to think I'm a misery but the outputs aren't great. The ECM however at least does have a chance to improve further but in recent winters its had an over amplification bias past T144hrs. But in an effort to lighten the mood I will do one of my now infamous dodgy paint jobs to show how that could deliver a change.

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Cheer up nick!

the day is darkest just before the dawn. The longest journey begins with just a step

the GEFS are broadly on the same page with the eps.  Looks like a decent upstream amplification due around days 11/13 running across the Atlantic. I'm struggling to be pessimistic in stark contrast to many. 

Another fantastic asset to NW who i for one pay a lot of attention too! I hope your right blue, im with nick on this one though, i just cant see anything positive this morning, aside from the NAO!

Edited by northwestsnow

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Cheer up nick!

the day is darkest just before the dawn. The longest journey begins with just a step

the GEFS are broadly on the same page with the eps.  Looks like a decent upstream amplification due around days 11/13 running across the Atlantic. I'm struggling to be pessimistic in stark contrast to many.

Lol! Are you our resident poet? I hope you're right but until I see that signal showing in the ops at closer range then I'm going to remain in my current underwhelmed state!

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent post Nick, you are such a level headed and respected member of the community because you are utterly impartial and objective in your analysis of the models, and lets be frank here, for cold and snow lovers we really are in a poor place.There is little if any blocking where we need it, of course it can change unexpectedly, and we are of course only in the first week of Dec.

I think it's amazing how Nick cares so much about what the uk weather is doing, especially with regard to coldies snow chances and I agree he's a top-notch contributor to netweather and always has been.:)

As for the models, a mild spell has been inevitable for a while now but I don't think this month will be anything like as warm and wet as last Dec.

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The 06z ens takes us back below 0 on the mean

gefsens850London0.png

Temperatures stuck firmly in single figures post mid month

gefstmp2mmaxLondon.png

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