Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

By the lack of replies in this thread I take it ec was really bad, I think it still shows potential for a Greenland high at 168h

Not really bad and not without interest but we need to see some consistency. Quite like this one from the gfs!!!

[knocker]

Although perhaps varying regarding detail the ecm is singing the same song as the GFS. Unsettled, periods of wind and rain, temps above average.

 

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

By the lack of replies in this thread I take it ec was really bad

 

Give us chance, it's not even 7.30 am

The Gefs 00z mean shows a colder trend from around mid month following the mild spell.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Well at least we would get some more snow before xmas, the Gfs 18z saves the coldest weather until last!

00Z though Frosty, by this time daffs will be out (south) double digits all the way on GFS from 6th until end (20th)

                           

[Ali1977]

The Op and Ctl at the top end of the ENS in FI , and 3 ice days in there. Really hoping for improvement today, plenty of ENS show this but can't really cling onto FI charts all the time.

[IDO]

Definitely for the cold fans the runs are getting worse. The GFS op PV goes from current>D16:

  Giving us this: 

Although there are one or two GEFS with promise at D16, many are pretty awful, and a good cluster showing the PV becoming a driver. The good point (barely) is that where the PV (s) plants itself (if it does) is not showing nailed for our NW. The mean highlights this:

Early days on this but up to D10 we have good continuity with reference to cold. None for the UK with the US in for another extended period of deep cold: 

Again the NH pattern with the two wave attack has sent the cold on the wrong axis for the UK and we end up on the warm side. These shots of cold are very hit and miss for a small island like the UK, but this was a big miss.

The London ens T850s mean keeps above the seasonal average for all 16 days on this run so December CET could be a big number!

Still uncertainty beyond D7 with regard to surface conditions for the UK, no cold, just whether we get passing wedges of higher pressure giving us a break from the satellite LP systems spinning off the vortex; so the SE more favoured for drier interludes in that setup.

Overall little change in FI suggesting a sea change to cold for the UK.

Edited December 4, 2016 by IDO

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

00Z though Frosty, by this time daffs will be out (south) double digits all the way on GFS from 6th until end (20th)

                           

The mean looks colder though

[Ali1977]

Notice the little cluster of ENS around day 11 close to freezing.

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Notice the little cluster of ENS around day 11 close to freezing.

That's from yesterday;)

[Banbury]

29 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

00Z though Frosty, by this time daffs will be out (south) double digits all the way on GFS from 6th until end (20th)

                           

On the higher side of the ENS from the 12th so dont hang your hat on that

Edited December 4, 2016 by Banbury

[Ali1977]

Just now, ArHu3 said:

That's from yesterday;)

True, next one due out soon so will be interesting to see how it compares.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

14 minutes ago, IDO said:

Definitely for the cold fans the runs are getting worse. The GFS op PV goes from current>D16:

  Giving us this: 

Although there are one or two GEFS with promise at D16, many are pretty awful, and a good cluster showing the PV becoming a driver. The good point (barely) is that where the PV (s) plants itself (if it does) is not showing nailed for our NW. The mean highlights this:

Early days on this but up to D10 we have good continuity with reference to cold. None for the UK with the US in for another extended period of deep cold: 

Again the NH pattern with the two wave attack has sent the cold on the wrong axis for the UK and we end up on the warm side. These shots of cold are very hit and miss for a small island like the UK, but this was a big miss.

The London ens T850s mean keeps above the seasonal average for all 16 days on this run so December CET could be a big number!

Still uncertainty beyond D7 with regard to surface conditions for the UK, no cold, just whether we get passing wedges of higher pressure giving us a break from the satellite LP systems spinning off the vortex; so the SE more favoured for drier interludes in that setup.

Overall little change in FI suggesting a sea change to cold for the UK.

But that mean you show firstly if you are absolutely intent on using the mean 300+ hours away which is simply laughable but each to there own you will never stop and that's you choice but it's simply put ridiculous when using something so far away to try to make a valid point in my opionion but just for the crack then ok let's talk about the mean some 300 hrs away. What does it show? 

A vortex well away from Greenland, with a suggestion of heights north of the uk.  It shows the usual home of the vortex is miles away and you can see the push on the vortex with the main core sitting in arctic Canada. 

Probably the best mean for a while in my view. 

[Nick F]

00z GEFS H500 and anomalies go from this at T+240

to this at T+360 ... could be be worse

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

00z GEFS H500 and anomalies go from this at T+240

to this at T+360 ... could be be worse

My point exactly 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

But I think genuinely that organisations need to completely stop offering long range forecasts because they look for signals and given the strength of these signals from the 2 best models out there then if this really falls flat on its face then shouldn't this be used as a genuine reason to stop it because I'm sorry it really is painfully embarrassing for all. 

People go on saying watch toys get thrown etc but in reality the is a weather forum where enthusiasts heir there views and listen to the professionals for guidance and for it to collapse on the second day of winter is absolutely atrocious I'm afraid. 

This isn't me throwing toys out its me simply saying what everyone's thinking. 

Of course it's not a done deal yet but it's just blooming typical that this happens time after time. 

The crum of comfort here been that we can't trust any signal or any forecast that says cold or mild in 6 wks time etc and the weather makes mugs out of everyone and we wil just have to wait and see which to be fair is the better more exciting way in my opinion anyway. 

The ens products have returned to blocked within a fortnight though ?  The blocking seems more likely to be a bit more ne as opposed to nw at the moment which I believe would tie in better with how glosea sees things.  I find the ECM hemispheric profile excellent for coldies at day seven which is as far as anyone should look on an op (quite why the veritable dr Cohen thinks an op at day 16 is worth a public tweet is beyond me unless it represents his personal view of where we are headed). 

yes it gets milder but we all knew that for several days now. The consistency of GEFS to build the anomoly to our ne is notable. As has always been the issue, advecting deep cold to the uk will depend on heights to our south. Models are consistently showing these to be dropping away through week 2 but we know from experience that this will be the most difficult part of getting the white stuff to our little island. 

[Man With Beard]

What I take from the GEFS today is the growing trend that 

- the PV is going to become more formidable around mid-month (as IDO mentions) and

- the PV is generally going to be kept away from us by heights pushing up from our south.

So we have these two slightly contradictory factors. How will they interact? I'm starting to think the most likely outcome will be some sort of UK high, possibly centred slightly to our east or west - but probably not too far North of us. 

Such a scenario does provide cold possibilities but not as good as proper HLB.

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

But that mean you show firstly if you are absolutely intent on using the mean 300+ hours away which is simply laughable but each to there own you will never stop and that's you choice but it's simply put ridiculous when using something so far away to try to make a valid point in my opionion but just for the crack then ok let's talk about the mean some 300 hrs away. What does it show? 

A vortex well away from Greenland, with a suggestion of heights north of the uk.  It shows the usual home of the vortex is miles away and you can see the push on the vortex with the main core sitting in arctic Canada. 

Probably the best mean for a while in my view. 

There is little to say about the next 10 days plus TBH, there is relatively good agreement. So I am just thinking aloud as to what follows. Yes a D16 op chart is not much use but it does highlight that the upcoming period may not go cold as you seem to think. And its a bit rich as I am sure if the 0z op showed blizzards and Arctic winds there would be hundreds of posts referring to it.

Anyway as I did point out all in la la land, and we wait to see the ECM ens, as the GEFS were pretty muted for cold.

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ens products have returned to blocked within a fortnight though ?  The blocking seems more likely to be a bit more ne as opposed to nw at the moment which I believe would tie in better with how glosea sees things.  I find the ECM hemispheric profile excellent for coldies at day seven which is as far as anyone should look on an op (quite why the veritable dr Cohen thinks an op at day 16 is worth a public tweet is beyond me unless it represents his personal view of where we are headed). 

yes it gets milder but we all knew that for several days now. The consistency of GEFS to build the anomoly to our ne is notable. As has always been the issue, advecting deep cold to the uk will depend on heights to our south. Models are consistently showing these to be dropping away through week 2 but we know from experience that this will be the most difficult part of getting the white stuff to our little island. 

Completely agree. That comment there from me is 4 weeks old for some reason every time I go to make a reply it keeps on bringing this post back I had no idea It had done it again hahah what a plonker 

[fergieweather]

35 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

True, next one due out soon so will be interesting to see how it compares.

...erm, that's the output for De Bilt near Utrecht! 

EDIT The 00z EC ENS (for Reading) retain signal for switch back to avg temps around 15th, with trend then to below avg thereafter. So at least some inter-run consistency emerging in that respect.

Edited December 4, 2016 by fergieweather

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

...erm, that's the output for De Bilt near Utrecht! 

Yep, I should have stated that. It can give a rough idea of what's happening in the NW of Europe though - although understand sometimes mainland Europe can be very different from our island. 

[fergieweather]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, I should have stated that. It can give a rough idea of what's happening in the NW of Europe though - although understand sometimes mainland Europe can be very different from our island. 

See my addition to post above.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean shows a colder trend beyond next weeks mild spell. The Gfs 00z op was a mild outlier in low res..it doesn't look like the mild weather will last long!

Edited December 4, 2016 by Frosty.

[bobbydog]

28 minutes ago, IDO said:

There is little to say about the next 10 days plus TBH, there is relatively good agreement. So I am just thinking aloud as to what follows. Yes a D16 op chart is not much use but it does highlight that the upcoming period may not go cold as you seem to think. And its a bit rich as I am sure if the 0z op showed blizzards and Arctic winds there would be hundreds of posts referring to it.

Anyway as I did point out all in la la land, and we wait to see the ECM ens, as the GEFS were pretty muted for cold.

 

What agreement at day 10? 

Here are the 10 day charts for GFS and ECM 

I see very little agreement there.

Unless you were referring to something else, if so, what?

[Matthew.]

The ECM still has the Low of nightmares at day 8 but not tracking ferociously across the Atlantic. Let's hope it doesn't pick up and give a direct hit!

[IDO]

13 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

What agreement at day 10? 

Here are the 10 day charts for GFS and ECM 

I see very little agreement there.

Unless you were referring to something else, if so, what?

Sorry but all I see are two charts showing a similar long wave pattern with differences you would expect re surface conditions and minute. Both have a mini ridge over Europe, a pocket of weak heights over the Bering Sea area, both have spillage of the PV to two main vortices, both have cold on the wrong axis for the UK.

Obviously I didn't mean they were mirror images, at D10 you surely cannot expect that? By D10 I would expect a bit of shuffling between the two but probably a very similar profile.

What are you seeing that I have missed?

Edited December 4, 2016 by IDO