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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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does that tweet from Mike ventrice not provide hope it looks like an Iceland high to my untrained eye

Edited by carboncowboy75
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Just now, bobbydog said:

Like I said earlier, it works both ways. "Mild zonal for the forseeable" "raging atlantic" crop up when it's not actually the case, misleading "less learned individuals". As us more seasoned members know, whatever the models are showing, is often subject to sudden dramatic change (Not necessarily for the better as the famous 'failed easterly' proved) you can't claim that optimistic posts are "nicey nicey" and then say that pessimistic posts are "realistic". In fact, anyone is entitled to look for signs of encouragement where they do actually exist- and they do!

However, I do agree with the cliché thing though- "rinse and repeat" and "smelling the coffee" should be put in the swear filter!!! 

Absolutely! :rofl:

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is a difference between deep cold upper air (supportive of a vast array of winter weather types e.g snow) and cold surface air. What we have seen has been mostly the latter...as I'm sure you're well aware.

But most people, and the CET for that matter base their feeling/record of cold on how it was measured/felt at the surface...as I'm sure you're well aware. 

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6 minutes ago, carboncowboy75 said:

IMG_20161202_210039.jpgScreenshot_2016-12-02-21-00-23.pnginteresting IMG_20161202_210039.jpg

They look awesome, this must surely cheer up this place. Are we about to see a swing the other way again!!

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The anomalies this evening are all on the same page, certainly in the 6-10 range so although there may well be some variations in the day t day evolutions of the det runs one wouldn't expect them to stray far outside the upper pattern. Which is:

A continuing ridge north of  the Aleutians and a lobe of the vortex N. Canada with trough towards Newfoundland. This which initiates a a cold Arctic plunge into north west Canada whilst the main trough is situated eastern Europe. It also results in a fairly flat flow across the southern States with quite a strong jet running into the Atlantic towards the UK and the ridge that has slipped away SE. Still signs of positive anomalies north of Iceland which may turn out to be significant.

Ergo the result of all this is a continuation of the W/SW upper flow which portends unsettled weather with periods of rain and quite possibly some strong winds Temps generally above average

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_43.png

Moving into the 10-15 day range there are still differences that need to be resolved. All are agreed on a strong vortex lobe N. Canada but not the orientation of the trough SE This is perhaps of minor importance at this stage as we are still essentially looking at at westerly upper flow with the UK HP becomimg even less influential so a continuation of unsettled weather from the west with temps still trending above average. It should still be noted however that the EPS is showing quite strong positive anomalies in the Iceland area towards the end of the run.

814day.03.gifgefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

 

 

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9 minutes ago, carboncowboy75 said:

IMG_20161202_210039.jpgScreenshot_2016-12-02-21-00-23.pnginteresting IMG_20161202_210039.jpg

There is still no appreciable troughing to our S though with heights extending S into France on that GFS ensemble chart. Until we see heights drop further S across Central and S Europe we will struggle to get any meaningful cold uppers into the UK.

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is still no appreciable troughing to our S though with heights extending S into France on that GFS ensemble chart. Until we see heights drop further S across Central and S Europe we will struggle to get any meaningful cold uppers into the UK.

Me personally I'd settle for a transient north westerly at this point . Pulling teeth 

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Been away for 3 days and what has happened? What a turnaround. Tweeted one my colleagues from WeatherQuest and even they have now predicted a mild December, which actually they did forecast a month ago!

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Evening gang!  Its a bit like one of those crappy us TV mum shows in here tonight where they argue over what colour socks they are going to wear. . 

Annnnny way (lol)  we knew it was the case,  milder and more un settled weather is on the cards next week with the Atlantic making its usual visit. But as pointed out earlier we got plenty of time for snowy and cold weather yet! February usual holds the goodies! 

An interesting thing I discussed today with work colleagues (I'm training as a tree surgeon but work as grounds maintenance also) is the changing of seasons..  The guys at work have never seen grass still growing at a rapid rate as it was in October this year and last. Some trees still have leaves I saw today,  okay albeit the very last dregs,  I saw an oak tree on Wednesday that was still 40% green!!! What if seasons are being shortend/made longer by various global factors?   Our knowledge as a human race on how our climate reactes and changes is about 0.1% we don't know a lot. We tell ourselves we do, but we can't predict weather past 3-4 days.  Let alone 3 months! 

Nature will show you if things are different very quickly,  and it's happening right now all around us. 

Either us lot at work are loosing the plot or we are on to something.. 

Time will tell,  but it's time we came together and hunted the cold as team not arguing over pink or purple socks!  

Edit: I've jinxed the whole of winter now looking at my post count and what number this is :rofl:

 

Edited by Surrey

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14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is still no appreciable troughing to our S though with heights extending S into France on that GFS ensemble chart. Until we see heights drop further S across Central and S Europe we will struggle to get any meaningful cold uppers into the UK.

the hope is for the Russian low anomoly to spread sw but I agree that until it shows, would be a slog to advect cold uppers across the uk.  I'm intrigued that the back end of the eps has repeated and in line with the previous 46 dayer at that timescale. the weekends runs will be revealing although having seen low euro anomolys fail once, I won't be too keen to go overboard if they show again unless ian confirms glosea is showing similar  

assume u looked at the eps rather than the GEFS Crewe? 

Edited by bluearmy

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Just now, bluearmy said:

the hope is for the Russian low anomoly to spread sw but I agree that until it shows, would be a slog to advect cold uppers across the uk.  I'm intrigued that the back end of the eps has repeated and in line with the previous 46 dayer at that timescale. the weekends runs will be revealing although having seen low euro anomolys fail once, I won't be too keen to go overboard if they show again unless ian confirms glosea is showing similar  

Just need to keep our fingers (and toes) crossed that we can get heights falling away across Europe at some point in the next 2-3 weeks. That will be one big hurdle overcome should we see it transpire. 

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No, GFS ensemble @bluearmy

IMG_20161202_210039.jpg

 

I'm guessing GFS is on the right and EPS on left

Screenshot_2016-12-02-21-00-23.png

Edited by CreweCold

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Difficult to see atm where any cold will come from in the next 10 days, but there are glimmers of hope where we could try and salvage something at around the 180hrs mark. The 'hope' revolves around the low pressure system exiting the US, GFS seems to make nothing of it however the GEM, ECM, NAVGEM etc have the feature. Its for me this feature and its pressure rise to the W of it (GEM fails to do this), where I could see an amplification of the flow in the next 10 days which using Nicks beautifully illustrated chart could help us deliver cold. 

 gfsnh-0-180.png?12ECH1-192.GIF?02-0gemnh-0-180.png?12

I know the GFS 18z is coming out now, and ive tried to rush this post before it fully does come out, but I would look for this amplification at the 180mark! Ensembles of the 12z showed the highest uncertainty from this depression exiting the US:

gens-22-1-180.png

An example of what I and Nick are trying to elude to is what is given by the latest CFS....

cfsnh-0-180.png?12cfsnh-0-210.png?12cfsnh-0-240.png?12cfsnh-0-264.png?12

 

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No, GFS ensemble @bluearmy

IMG_20161202_210039.jpg

Wouldn't mind that it, i'll take the ECM is offering but at least on the GFS there is a possibility of it being dry. A pattern change many can get behind.

Edited by SN0WM4N

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36 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No, GFS ensemble @bluearmy

IMG_20161202_210039.jpg

 

I'm guessing GFS is on the right and EPS on left

Screenshot_2016-12-02-21-00-23.png

although the ECM tonight is not dissimilar to what the GEFS has shown at times over the past three days. It's clearly an option in the mix.

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For those with no access to the extended EPS mean, a wee gif of the eleven to fifteen day progression.  850 temps are a bit lower than the 00Z run.

b2b40d12d1a866cc531f3999f3d9e8de.gif

 

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12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

although the ECM tonight is not dissimilar to what the GEFS has shown at times over the past three days. It's clearly an option in the mix.

I like the D10 ECM

IMG_3812.PNG

pv almost split, pressure rising to the north and troughing to the east. Not really that hard to see a route to cold from there let's be honest!

yes it needs some work, but that's the beauty of a D10 chart, time is a plenty 

Edited by karlos1983

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GFS sends a low barrelling into Spain. Also a pretty big shift west.

gfs-0-186.png?18 

gfs-0-198.png?12

Edited by SN0WM4N

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The Gfs 18z would feel positively balmy from next midweek with tropical maritime air flooding across the uk, especially mild in the south with low teens celsius.

ukmaxtemp.png

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

h850t850eu.png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

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How cruel is this, bitter cold to the NE and bitter cold sweeping south through canada and down into the  Atlantic with the uk bathed in mild!

h850t850eu.png

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think we may get a pressure rise out to our E/NE late FI

gfsnh-0-240.png?18

I think you're right....quick build maybe 

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