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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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Just now, Frosty. said:

That's not true, it's what the GEFS 6z mean is showing!

Because the GEFS go out till 31st of December and are subject to change.

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Just now, SN0WM4N said:

Because the GEFS go out till 31st of December and are subject to change.

He was only saying what the models are showing..which is the right thing to do.:D

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 Since when was 06:00 on 18th December (t384) the end of the second half of December?

Edited by Chris.R

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

What ???

 

Told you days ago it was going to happen and even the Met are SLOWLY but surely edging towards it.

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

He was only saying what the models are showing..which is the right thing to do.:D

What? Since when had december ended on the 18th? Did someone not tell me about the 2nd december?

Edited by SN0WM4N

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4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

What? Since when had december ended on the 18th? Did someone not tell me about the 2nd december?

It's the trend, the Gefs 6z mean ended with a flat looking pattern with power to add.:)

GFSAVGEU06_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Don't forget that models are only representations of what could happen.  Not what will happen ....  

And only a complete fool uses one run from one model to state what will happen for the next 4 weeks :p  

 

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Just now, Frosty. said:

It's the trend, the Gefs 6z mean ended with a flat looking pattern with power to add.:)

Doesn't mean the rest is going to be like that. And its 15+ days away. 

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ke9iz8.jpgecm ens, not as bad as i feared, seems the ops this morning were indeed worse case scenario for coldies..

Edited by northwestsnow

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32 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Kara sea blocking high is a response to good early snow cover and low ice in the region - yep - fine example of this in action for the first ten days of January 2016!

psnh_jun_hist_z500_201601.gif

Was this not the very thorn in the side of expected improvements in the outlook last year?

As an aside, a good example of how seeing this chart as an anomaly forecast might not tell the full story.

I think the real thorn last year was vortex strength through all levels. We got the warming... but not the disruption. End result was no alternation to the circulation, or at least not enough to disrupt the westerlies very much. Different this year. Well logged differences in the vortex strength and profile so a Kara High might help produce the goods. Ideally though it needs continued squeezing from the pacific sector too. A wave 2 pinch followed by a SSW with accompanied reversal would work very well if the GLAAM budget does indeed rebound into another active phase.

 

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's the trend, the Gefs 6z mean ended with a flat looking pattern with power to add.:)

GFSAVGEU06_384_1.png

Looks like it would continue..  :whistling::help:

Edited by Frosty.

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Just now, Frosty. said:

Looks like it would continue..  

It's not flat karl ??

IMG_4693.PNG

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The models he can see only go to mid month

how can f1991 make a statement for the two weeks that follow them when we know they are going to be unreliable at day 16 in any case

its just ridiculous - he makes a statement which should be prefixed 'in my opinion '

then we could have avoided the past half dozen posts 

 

Look at the 10hpa temps at the end of almost every run now, wave activity not doing anything to stop the vortex strenghthening over the pole, to me its obvious but don't want to upset posters I respct (fellow cold fans) so unless I'm badly wrong, I wont be posting for a while now (ie - when outputs improve)

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a68a3655495e7379c0e3ac35e23c8f33.jpg 

Plenty of dry/blocked ensembles in there along with plenty of flat/zonal ones.

All in all a mixed bag of pick'n'mix

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ok current modeling and charts data does show it turning warmer and unsettled ,but past i would say 8/10 days we could be on the cusp of something realy wintry or perhap[s just normal fayre ,winter as just started [yesterday ] there is no computer around which can predict the weather several weeks away , take a plane trip and look out a 36,000 say travelling from uk to western america ,thats what we are trying to predict !!!!!!!! Plus of course every thing above that altitude ,great forum gang catch you up later .:gathering::yahoo:

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I posted the ECM Ensembles earlier, and it is suggests to me that December is far from over from a cold perspective, which is good because its ermmm 2nd December 

Agreed, it looks better further upstream :santa-emoji:

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at the 10hpa temps at the end of almost every run now, wave activity not doing anything to stop the vortex strenghthening over the pole, to me its obvious but don't want to upset posters I respct (fellow cold fans) so unless I'm badly wrong, I wont be posting for a while now (ie - when outputs improve)

But it's not over the pole day 10 and at 30/50 hpa it's even further displaced to siberia ???

IMG_4695.PNG

 

 

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Look what I've just found. 

 A month is a long time in meteorology. 

 

 

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Well after a pretty poor few days model wise, we move on.Ecm ens offer hope of a cool down towards day 10 and beyond, hopefully something better from the op runs will lift the mood, starting with Gfs.... :)

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I can see one member of the ECM ensembles that goes cold just after the 7th, I know it's highly unlikely that future output will start to go this way, however, people need to remember how volatile the weather is and how quickly things can change.

 

The signal for cold has been waxing and waning over the past week and it's currently waning, perhaps the slight uptick in solar activity hasn't helped in that respect. I do believe though that it will start going the other way as we head through the weekend and suspect that cold will come as early as 11th, as initially picked up on. Let's wait and see how things pan out...  

ECM.JPG

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14 minutes ago, legritter said:

ok current modeling and charts data does show it turning warmer and unsettled ,but past i would say 8/10 days we could be on the cusp of something realy wintry or perhap[s just normal fayre ,winter as just started [yesterday ] there is no computer around which can predict the weather several weeks away , take a plane trip and look out a 36,000 say travelling from uk to western america ,thats what we are trying to predict !!!!!!!! Plus of course every thing above that altitude ,great forum gang catch you up later .:gathering::yahoo:

Great post legritter, love your enthusiasm!:santa-emoji:

Although the models show next week becoming milder / mild..I have a feeling it will be short-lived.

Edited by Frosty.

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18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ke9iz8.jpgecm ens, not as bad as i feared, seems the ops this morning were indeed worse case scenario for coldies..

Shame they are higher resolution though.

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