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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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2 minutes ago, snowice said:

19 th 25 is so far away, if we have learnt anything from this past week its that at that range you could toss a coin!

Probably a marketing ploy. Think about it. More people will probably subscribe now in the hope that it will flip back cold in the next few updates. If people think this is way too synical, they obviously don't know what type of world they are living in. Will take a lot of stick for this post but it just had to be said.

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Im not buying this that one cyclone has ruined are HLB, cyclone season runs from April and December in the indian ocean this must be factored in with LRM,s  anyway cyclone nada is merely a depression now anyhow then you have the recent spike in sunspot activity which seems to be declining again so all in all i think these two combined could have blocked are signal temporally. I believe the signals for HLB will appear again soon.:)

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I find following the long range forecasts produced on here interesting and informative.  I think they've been clear that this is an atypical year in terms of how the atmosphere is responding to various drivers.

What I would find useful is to have more of a running commentary from them when things change and why.  I understand that this is what they will be endeavouring to do as the season progresses so I look forward to that.

To my untrained eye, there is a bit of a kick to the atmosphere going on at the moment.  The atlantic looks more active and things have had a bit of a shunt.  Deep cold seems to be retreating east and plunging through the US.  How long and how established this pattern becomes is the big question for the month.

We've already had a front loaded winter compared to last year. It happened in November!  Disappointing that we're looking to lose the signals that were present a few days ago but we have to wait and see how December now pans out.  

 

ps - and GP has just provided that explanation which I find so helpful and informative!   

Edited by Stephen W
just read GP's post

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If I ignore the 46 dayer then I'm quite content this morning

latest eps headed in the direction of previous 46 day output as high anomolys all drained away from Europe by day 15 and looking quite retrogressive with high anomolys mid Atlantic and mean sceuro trough strengthening slowly. Bigger split showing in the arctic between the vortex segments 

also note the cluster at day 10 showing a pretty significant cluster away from the mean - ridge or trough ??  Perhaps the next op will show us. 

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2 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

So it just goes to show how useless long range models are. The professionals and amateurs alike have all been led up the garden path only for the bad news to come on the second day of winter. 

Weather it will happen or not remains to be seen. We was all aware of the waning off period during the first 10 days of Dec with more mobility coming in briefly so you never it may be that mods are simply over reacting to that.

But you really couldn't make it up. And it just goes to show how exceptionally hard it is in our county to get a proper winter. 

Top post. Reality. Island influenced by the Atlantic and Gulf stream. Need i say more? Nope - otherwise i'll be on the naughty step with 'mummy' telling me off. Have a good day everyone. It's only the weather after all. Health and happiness much more important.

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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If I ignore the 46 dayer then I'm quite content this morning

latest eps headed in the direction of previous 46 day output as high anomolys all drained away from Europe by day 15 and looking quite retrogressive with high anomolys mid Atlantic and mean sceuro trough strengthening slowly. Bigger split showing in the arctic between the vortex segments 

also note the cluster at day 10 showing a pretty significant cluster away from the mean - ridge or trough ??  Perhaps the next op will show us. 

I don't see what all the worry is about - that sounds positive if you ask me.

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Very interesting update so blocked pattern later December is still there interesting winter on way much much better the last year..:D I think where going to see high pressure to the north east of U.K. 

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Edited by abbie123
Forgot

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3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Very interesting update so blocked pattern later December is still there interesting winter on way much much better the last year..:D

IMG_1230.PNG

IMG_1232.PNG

That to me is an oxymoron, how can it be most probable, but shift in probability smaller? :cc_confused:

Edited by karlos1983

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3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Very interesting update so blocked pattern later December is still there interesting winter on way much much better the last year..:D

IMG_1230.PNG

IMG_1232.PNG

Great but noted not as confident  , today would be a nice day to see a flip in the GFS and ENS, lets see what the 06z thinks about it. 

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

That to me is an oxymoron, how can it be most probable, but shift in probability smaller? :cc_confused:

Sounds like it is still the strongest cluster of options, but overall it is in a minority. Imagine you have 50 computers. 10 agree on something, 5 agree on something else, another 5 on something else and then the rest of them are grouped into 2 or 3. If you need to pick what is most likely, you go with the 10, but you note that it is only 10 out of 50...

 

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Just now, jvenge said:

Sounds like it is still the strongest cluster of options, but overall it is in a minority. Imagine you have 50 computers. 10 agree on something, 5 agree on something else, another 5 on something else and then the rest of them are grouped into 2 or 3. If you need to pick what is most likely, you go with the 10, but you note that it is only 10 out of 50...

 

Ok now it makes sense. More fool me. D'oh

cheers

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6 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Very interesting update so blocked pattern later December is still there interesting winter on way much much better the last year..:D

IMG_1230.PNG

IMG_1232.PNG

I like John Hammond's final sentence in that video, 'We're not expecting a return to the stormy conditions of last year in the near future'

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16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I don't see what all the worry is about - that sounds positive if you ask me.

Agreed Ali, I'm with teits 're the next few weeks, becoming mild next week then progressively cooler / colder.

Edited by Frosty.

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What perplexes me is that cold predictions in the models be they long range or short range are all to be taken with a pinch of salt yet mild forecasts, even long range ones are a given to materialise!

Yes we could go on to have one of the mildest winters on record but the last time I looked it was only December 2nd and I am not getting downbeat over one long range forecast model.  Yes it has switched it's signal overnight but who is to say it will not switch back again?!  We are being told by the experts that the current situation in the Indian Ocean is causing confusion with the short term models so what is to say this isn't causing problems with the EC46?

Anyways I will crawl back into my hole and continue to watch the input with interest and carry on enjoying the build up to Christmas regardless.  Who knows we may see a complete turnaround by this time tomorrow!  Cheers!!  :santa-emoji:

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I think we're looking in the wrong direction, start looking NE for those height rises something @Mucka pointed out on lasts night 18z GEFS seems to still be there on 0z GEFS

gensnh-21-5-324.pnggensnh-21-5-384.png 

Even stronger on the Bias corrected ones

gensbcnh-21-5-384.png

As for now the greenland high seems to be out of the picture (GEFS that is) and height rises to the NE is our best chance. 

 

Edited by SN0WM4N

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I know yesterday I cautioned about posting premium EC charts from subscriptions, there is some EPS available freely if you know where to look, this is the week 3 from the EC46 updated yesterday from an Icelandic Weather Service page and shows, as bluearmy and GP have indicated, +height anomalies to the W and NW. Though looking at the 00z operational GFS - a long way off getting anything like that kind of anomaly going on ... is a change from the last EC46 - which had +ve HGT anomalies more over the Norwegian Sea and Iceland around similar time scale.

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2016120100_0600.png

Edited by Nick F

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GPs update sounds a lot like the 32 day MJO projection from ECM issued on Nov 29th which did actually show the MJO hanginf out in the Indian Ocean for a while and then moving east, eventually reaching the Pacific at a time that supported changes to a blocking pattern after around 20th. 

So some clarity it seems that we've seen a slight delay in the tropical progression toward where we'd like it to be. Question then is whether it will still be soon enough to help ward off a propagation down of the fairly strong vortex that looks to become established in the upper stratosphere.

Until yesterday evening I was still hopeful that HP might still be influential enough to bring transient quiet, cooler spells to break up a mild, cloudy regime with spells of rain. Yet it appears the Atlantic troughs are getting a bit too much of a boost next week.

Its undeniable that given the weak vortex state meaning all sorts of interesting outcomes were achievable regardless of a lack of favourable forcing, this arrival of such pronounced unfavourable forcing (Indian Ocean could have stayed quieter and the transition of the MJO been faster) has made for about the least enjoyable kick off to winter that I can remember -  but it's important to keep this shortfall separate from the arguably more important period 14th-28th Dec, for which hope remains but with less expectation that we'll see much better than a return of UK-based blocking in the first of those two weeks - that being the ongoing Met Office suggestion and the way that a colder than average month (at least -0.5 anomaly) may still be achieved, or even a markedly colder one (-1 or beyond).

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18 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I know yesterday I cautioned about posting premium EC charts from subscriptions, there is some EPS available freely if you know where to look, this is the week 3 from the EC46 updated yesterday from an Icelandic Weather Service page and shows, as bluearmy and GP have indicated, +height anomalies to the W and NW. Though looking at the 00z operational GFS - a long way off getting anything like that kind of anomaly going on ... is a change from the last EC46 - which had +ve HGT anomalies more over the Norwegian Sea and Iceland around similar time scale.

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2016120100_0600.png

We have to be careful with anomalies, because this could just show pressure is higher than normal, but not necessarily High pressure. If low pressures are weaker, this would also show as a positive anomaly.

So for example, if we have a sceuro high semi blocking the atlantic, this would show as the anomaly above.

Edited by warrenb

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06z quite different at 144 over America, it still looks brutally cold but it may help with a change for us later in the run.

IMG_3673.PNG

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Jet stream a fair bit further south I think.

Edited by Ali1977

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I'm not in a position to post lots of charts, or even to check them before I post this, but I'm going to throw this out there anyway. Look at the current GFS 6Z t144 chart, around the southern part of Greenland

gfsnh-0-114.png?6

I've noticed a tendency over the last day or two for the models to increase the heights there, in very small increments, increasingly separating the large low to the South from the remainder of the vortex. It's not just on the GFS either, I'm sure it's happened on the ECM too, and it's much more prominent on a couple of other models (FIM, NAVGEM?).

Now it seems to make little difference and the low then re-integrates with the vortex to the north. Probably just too much energy around, but maybe something worth watching in the next few runs.

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