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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

He may Have tweeted that, but it's still a climb down, next few tweets will probably end up with complete climb down. Doesn't look as bad then. And let's be honest he's not been in here to tell us differently, which if glosea was still showing a strong signal for HLB then I'm sure he would have. 

*this is not a dig at Ian *

I can't help but feel massively disappointed, all the hype through November, it's been a really long month of being patient and watch a pattern evolve, but we miss out this time by the looks of it.

ive not given up hope completely yet*, but my laptop is lucky it's still functioning the way I feel.

i don't think pros should stop long range predictions, just because it might not come off this time, no way!! If we took that attitude throughout evolution we wouldn't have got very far!! Learning curves are massively important to get the result you want, more so when dealing with the amount of variables when the weather is concerned. Remember a lot of effort goes into it as well, I solute them, regardless of the end result as it only takes one variable that could throw the entire prediction into doubt.

At the end of the day, the experts rely on what the number crunching seasonal computer models are indicating when there is overwhelming support, the pros are not to blame for this, they are just going by the data available.

Edited by Frosty.

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6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

They always are correct when they go for mild and wet :)

That's the usual uk winter pattern though isn't it:D

Anyway, we can turn the heating down later next week 

ukmaxtemp.png

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

Edited by Frosty.

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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

At the end of the day, the experts rely on what the number crunching seasonal computer models are indicating when there is overwhelming support, the pros are not to blame for this, they are just going by the data available.

No im afraid I am, I told all my family to put £20 on a white Christmas as it's looking good :oops:

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The METO aren't wrong yet, we are 15 days away till they said it will start going colder - tell me when FI was guaranteed or even close.  It's a shame we didn't have EC46 archives for the big winters to see some verification starts 

Edited by Ali1977

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Can we actually discuss the models in here rather than a random mess of winter forecasts, unrelated tweets, tv forecasts and the like. There are places for all of those, but not in this thread. 

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3 minutes ago, snowbob said:

 

 Can't believe some of the posts on here this morning.

The weather will do and always will do what it wants with respect no forecaster or super model can ever get the next month spot on.

things don't look so good right now but that could change as it does every time. It's only the 2nd of December plenty of time yet.

looking forward to the 12z

The problem is GFS/ECM  are fairly accurate 5 to 7 days ahead, after that they show the trends and the accuracy falls.

Nobody knows what will happen at the end of this month so there is no need to panic.Its pure frustration that the models have switched and are showing a different outlook for the time being.Chin up!:)

 

 

 

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This is one of those occasions where technology can be a curse , as well as a friend.   Not so many years ago we had to wait until Sunday lunchtime for the Country file forecast and not have a  daily blow ,by blow account . I do hope though the youngsters  get a good helping of snow this year, maybe something akin to what we experienced in the 60's -80's.

Even at my age of 56  I still enjoy a good whiteout, the last few days have been great as well, frosty and clear  it's put me behind on my building work, but who cares.:D

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Regardless of the longer range predictions which still have plenty of time to materialise, my focus now is getting any pattern other than the euro-high nonsense being shown into the reliable. Anything is better than the mid term ecm this morning. GFS isn't much more appealing either.

i suppose better to have the mild stuff now so we are still in with a shout of a change before the festive season. 

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Same old same old 

Lrf are just a complete waste of time Infact if a so called weather expert forecaster cant predict by looking at the models accurately for t96 hours why have any faith in them at all there after

Gfs ecm both showing a few milder days starting from today with no frost this morning down here after that who knows

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Will an Atlantic driven West to East based pattern be as hard to shift as we were told the blocking would be?

Personally this reminds me a lot of Dec 2012.....a lot of excited build up followed by an almighty meltdown as the models flipped...which then a few days later started providing the sort of winter many of us would more than settle for again.

To humanise the models....I think they have a big tease factor. When they know what we want is coming, they'll stop showing it to us, just so they can see our tantrums!

Keep the faith chaps... and keep your eyes on the weekend runs..... :)

 

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I'm not sure how I survived my walk into the office this morning, with the sky falling and all..

The latest ECM Deterministic run is sending the AO and NAO STRONGLY positive. AO to +4 and NAO to +3 towards mid month.

The EPS from yesterday doesn't go along with this and is trending the AO slightly negative and the NAO at around -2 towards mid month.

The GFS is also sending both the AO and NAO slightly positive by mid month. The GEFS keep both comfortably negative though.

 

Edited by jvenge

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33 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

They are not hopeless, last winter the LRF's / seasonal models were spot on!:)

Alright Frosty . It just seems like it ! Feeling grumpy

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5 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

This is one of those occasions where technology can be a curse , as well as a friend.   Not so many years ago we had to wait until Sunday lunchtime for the Country file forecast and not have a  daily blow ,by blow account . I do hope though the youngsters  get a good helping of snow this year, maybe something akin to what we experienced in the 60's -80's.

Even at my age of 56  I still enjoy a good whiteout, the last few days have been great as well, frosty and clear  it's put me behind on my building work, but who cares.:D

OT but the 2009/2013 winters were akin to many of those.

now onto the eps and let's see if those euro high anomolys continue to weaken somewhat late on

 

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22 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The METO aren't wrong yet, we are 15 days away till they said it will start going colder - tell me when FI was guaranteed or even close.  It's a shame we didn't have EC46 archives for the big winters to see some verification starts 

Let's not forget the infamous New Years Day debacle this year when the EC monthly went for mild throughout Jan,  but 2 days later the models started picking up cold and blocking in the medium range  which did verify, blowing the monthly out of the park. 

I have to say that was a great learning curve and since then I have kept my pinched salt on stand by in regards to lrf's

Edited by geordiekev

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7 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I'm not sure how I survived my walk into the office this morning, with the sky falling and all..

The latest ECM Deterministic run is sending the AO and NAO STRONGLY positive. AO to +4 and NAO to +3 towards mid month.

The EPS from yesterday doesn't go along with this and is trending the AO slightly negative and the NAO at around -2 towards mid month.

The GFS is also sending both the AO and NAO slightly positive by mid month. The GEFS keep both comfortably negative though.

 

Just to add, Canadian model control sending both AO and NAO comfortably negative for mid month. but the mean keeps things just above neutral.

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Whose to say the models are right now most have dropped the cold signal?.

They might be wrong showing what they do at t240+.

We're in a much better place than this time last year for sure and the weather can throw up big surprises. 

People need to lower their expectations or take a break for a few days.

Laters. 

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ECM

5th to 11th

Temperatures above average UK wide well above average in some places - weaker signals for rain but generally it should be closer to or just below average

meTz20161201_0000+26400.pngmeRz20161201_0000+26400.png

12th to 18th

Temperatures remaining above average with just the far south showing a weaker signal - precipitation signals are again weak

meTz20161201_0000+43200.pngmeRz20161201_0000+43200.png

19th to 25th

Signals for temps and rain are weak

meTz20161201_0000+60000.pngmeRz20161201_0000+60000.png

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM

5th to 11th

Temperatures above average UK wide well above average in some places - weaker signals for rain but generally it should be closer to or just below average

meTz20161201_0000+26400.pngmeRz20161201_0000+26400.png

12th to 18th

Temperatures remaining above average with just the far south showing a weaker signal - precipitation signals are again weak

meTz20161201_0000+43200.pngmeRz20161201_0000+43200.png

19th to 25th

Signals for temps and rain are weak

meTz20161201_0000+60000.pngmeRz20161201_0000+60000.png

19 th 25 is so far away, if we have learnt anything from this past week its that at that range you could toss a coin!

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The big issue is, with the tropical confusion being at the current time frame, all ensembles will be driven toward outcomes based on a forcing profile that may be totally wrong. 

Min means trust in the models is very low - but doesn't rule out them being right. Concerning times yes, end of Dec hope no.

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