Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

[jvenge 1,579]

5 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

I'll keep it brief but the overnight EC Monthly has lost, not completely, but most certainly isn't as pronounced in terms of northern blocking moving forward through the rest of Dec. The signal has been consistent but this change, when coupled with the likes of the GEFS and EC EPS through to and just beyond mid-month now really do lower the confidence of a mid-month change. 

As I said the other day it's a long month Dec and it looks like we are back to the usual 'wait and see, we can hope' kind of months as, overall, the predicted changes as Dec progress are becoming less likely it would seem now especially given this shift in signal from the latest EC monthly and other output/data. 

Matt. 

Matt, the control looks good, right?

 

The mean is not singing anywhere near the same tune, though. 

How are they clustered? control pretty much on its own?

[KTtom 1,001]

IF this in indeed the case, many winter forecasts have 'bust' 2 days In!  On the plus side it demonstrates how we need to take any forecast past 10 days with a large pinch of salt no matter who produces them, be it either cold or mild, because long range forecasting for our neck of the woods seems to be a skill no one has managed to cracking as yet. That's not a dig at anyone, just a fact, if indeed we do get a mobile December as the gfs in particular is trending towards. 

[northwestsnow 20,364]

1 minute ago, jvenge said:

Matt, the control looks good, right?

 

The mean is not singing anywhere near the same tune, though. 

How are they clustered? control pretty much on its own?

Control run is snowless for the vast majority, out into lala land....

No suprise to hear that from Matt, the Ecm currently coming out is, dire, with a capital D, oh well...

[JON SNOW 75,896]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Control run is snowless for the vast majority, out into lala land....

No suprise to hear that from Matt, the Ecm currently coming out is, dire, with a capital D, oh well...

I await the first..winter is over comments

Anyway, still some fog and frost to come before it gradually turns milder next week.

[terrier 1,455]

15 minutes ago, KTtom said:

IF this in indeed the case, many winter forecasts have 'bust' 2 days In!  On the plus side it demonstrates how we need to take any forecast past 10 days with a large pinch of salt no matter who produces them, be it either cold or mild, because long range forecasting for our neck of the woods seems to be a skill no one has managed to cracking as yet. That's not a dig at anyone, just a fact, if indeed we do get a mobile December as the gfs in particular is trending towards. 

How can many a winter forecast be a bust after 2 days.? Oh dear. Anyway back to the models another poor set of output. But like I said last night we have another 12 weeks of winter to go. No panic from me. 

[daz_4 367]

Meanwhile in USA. Getting winter to Europe is really impossible nowadays 

[blizzard81 5,657]

29 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

I'll keep it brief but the overnight EC Monthly has lost, not completely, but most certainly isn't as pronounced in terms of northern blocking moving forward through the rest of Dec. The signal has been consistent but this change, when coupled with the likes of the GEFS and EC EPS through to and just beyond mid-month now really do lower the confidence of a mid-month change. 

As I said the other day it's a long month Dec and it looks like we are back to the usual 'wait and see, we can hope' kind of months as, overall, the predicted changes as Dec progress are becoming less likely it would seem now especially given this shift in signal from the latest EC monthly and other output/data. 

Matt. 

Oh dear! I still don't understand what has changed so much to cause this huge flip?

[blizzard81 5,657]

1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

Meanwhile in USA. Getting winter to Europe is really impossible nowadays 

I agree, it really is like groundhog day isn't it?

[ArHu3 982]

latest gem and ec 240h look pretty interesting though and not too dissimilar

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast 3,846]

So it just goes to show how useless long range models are. The professionals and amateurs alike have all been led up the garden path only for the bad news to come on the second day of winter. 

Weather it will happen or not remains to be seen. We was all aware of the waning off period during the first 10 days of Dec with more mobility coming in briefly so you never it may be that mods are simply over reacting to that.

But you really couldn't make it up. And it just goes to show how exceptionally hard it is in our county to get a proper winter. 

[blizzard81 5,657]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

latest gem and ec 240h look pretty interesting though and not too dissimilar

 

The ecm day 10 is shockingly bad

[D.V.R 2,384]

34 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

I'll keep it brief but the overnight EC Monthly has lost, not completely, but most certainly isn't as pronounced in terms of northern blocking moving forward through the rest of Dec. The signal has been consistent but this change, when coupled with the likes of the GEFS and EC EPS through to and just beyond mid-month now really do lower the confidence of a mid-month change. 

As I said the other day it's a long month Dec and it looks like we are back to the usual 'wait and see, we can hope' kind of months as, overall, the predicted changes as Dec progress are becoming less likely it would seem now especially given this shift in signal from the latest EC monthly and other output/data. 

Matt. 

Thanks for the update Matt, but what's the Mogreps saying.. is it still showing the same signals?

[Severe Siberian icy blast 3,846]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

latest gem and ec 240h look pretty interesting though and not too dissimilar

 

In sorry but 2 very very different charts there. The only resemblance is the PV lobe in siberia

the arctic high on the gem is in adifferent position to the ecm and the PV is much more organised on the ecm. 

Along with the fact on one we have scandi high and a mid Atlantic high with the UK under cold and the other one is a standard westerly mild pattern.

[bluearmy 37,563]

The ec 46 has certainly lost its consistent signal on the mean, mainly for low height anomolys to our south (and those high ones to our North now weaker) though but they continue to be prevalent in the med. we still look mainly likely to see higher mslp in our vicinity with a short period of the Atlantic running close to the n of the uk in the middle part of the run. The point here being that Matt flagged his concerns. Others have given their reasons for not really trusting the nwp at the moment longer term. I think we should be waiting for Tuesday's update before throwing any toys in the air and especially for ian to let us know if glosea has also lost the consistency that it was also showing. 

Edited December 2, 2016 by bluearmy

[Polar Maritime 15,547]

For any more moans please remember use this thread..

 And continue in here with sensible constructive Model Output Discussion. Thanks.

 

 

 

[Ali1977 8,514]

GLOSEA left then, still don't think mid Dec onwards is over for coldies. EC46 may also find the next few weeks signal hard to decipher and knock it off course further on - I'll stay confident for a few more days and see what happens. If it's wrong then you never know, we may have a rear loaded winter on our hands!!  

Ian F tweeted yesterday themat they still think a shift to cold mid Dec, -although confidence is low. I wonder what that thought is now after the overnight runs!!!

Edited December 2, 2016 by Ali1977

[JON SNOW 75,896]

8 hours ago, More Snow said:

as has been said before we dont need blocking to get cold in... it most certainly helps but is not the be all and end all

No need to hit the panic button, it's only 2nd Dec and we will have plenty of opportunities for cold and snow!

[Severe Siberian icy blast 3,846]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The ec 46 has certainly lost its consistent signal on the mean, mainly for low height anomolys to our south though but they continue to be prevalent in the med. we still look mainly likely to see higher mslp in our vicinity with a short period of the Atlantic running close to the n of the uk in the middle part of the run. The point here being that Matt flagged his concerns. Others have given their reasons for not really trusting the nwp at the moment longer term. I think we should be waiting for Tuesday's update before throwing any toys in the air and especially for ian to let us know if glosea has also lost the consistency that it was also showing. 

But I think genuinely that organisations need to completely stop offering long range forecasts because they look for signals and given the strength of these signals from the 2 best models out there then if this really falls flat on its face then shouldn't this be used as a genuine reason to stop it because I'm sorry it really is painfully embarrassing for all. 

People go on saying watch toys get thrown etc but in reality the is a weather forum where enthusiasts heir there views and listen to the professionals for guidance and for it to collapse on the second day of winter is absolutely atrocious I'm afraid. 

This isn't me throwing toys out its me simply saying what everyone's thinking. 

Of course it's not a done deal yet but it's just blooming typical that this happens time after time. 

The crum of comfort here been that we can't trust any signal or any forecast that says cold or mild in 6 wks time etc and the weather makes mugs out of everyone and we wil just have to wait and see which to be fair is the better more exciting way in my opinion anyway. 

[Ravelin 8,590]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GLOSEA left then, still don't think mid Dec onwards is over for coldies. EC46 may also find the next few weeks signal hard to decipher and knock it off course further on - I'll stay confident for a few more days and see what happens. If it's wrong then you never know, we may have a rear loaded winter on our hands!! 

Exactly. Or a centre loaded winter, or just a slightly delayed front loading, or just plain average, who knows. If the likes of the EC46 and GLOSEA etc can't get the first winter month right, which should be the easiest, then it's unlikely the've got the other two correct. 

Personally I'm treating anything beyond day 5 as up for grabs. 

[Decemberof2010 956]

One of the main reasons I started coming on this forum, was to look at the models and then see the assessment from people on here.

The best part is definitely the chase of the cold charts coming off. However for the last 2 winters every time promise was shown it was shot down because the MO weren't on board. 

They ended up being correct everytime. So in a way that fun part was draining away as you knew unless they were in agreement the charts were just good to look at. 

So if they are wrong on this then it gives that hope and fun back to start chasing the great charts again. 

They have been great last few winters though I have to say.

Its just typical the one year they are showing blocking they "could" be wrong.

Onto the 12's

 

[Sweatyman 800]

41 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

So it just goes to show how useless long range models are. The professionals and amateurs alike have all been led up the garden path only for the bad news to come on the second day of winter. 

Weather it will happen or not remains to be seen. We was all aware of the waning off period during the first 10 days of Dec with more mobility coming in briefly so you never it may be that mods are simply over reacting to that.

But you really couldn't make it up. And it just goes to show how exceptionally hard it is in our county to get a proper winter. 

Yep hopeless and all these long range forecasts go down the hill every time

[snowblizzard 465]

37 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

So it just goes to show how useless long range models are. The professionals and amateurs alike have all been led up the garden path only for the bad news to come on the second day of winter. 

Weather it will happen or not remains to be seen. We was all aware of the waning off period during the first 10 days of Dec with more mobility coming in briefly so you never it may be that mods are simply over reacting to that.

But you really couldn't make it up. And it just goes to show how exceptionally hard it is in our county to get a proper winter. 

Absolutely, and unlike politics, weather patterns rarely change quickly and dramatically.

So, it looks like we are in for the long haul once again, waiting, hoping, waiting, hoping!

But, I fear, once the 'normal' West to East Atlantic driven pattern becomes entrenched, it will be very difficult to break/shift!

[JON SNOW 75,896]

8 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Yep hopeless and all these long range forecasts go down the hill every time

They are not hopeless, last winter the LRF's / seasonal models were spot on!

Edited December 2, 2016 by Frosty.

[ArHu3 982]

39 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

In sorry but 2 very very different charts there. The only resemblance is the PV lobe in siberia

the arctic high on the gem is in adifferent position to the ecm and the PV is much more organised on the ecm. 

Along with the fact on one we have scandi high and a mid Atlantic high with the UK under cold and the other one is a standard westerly mild pattern.

It won't happen like this but it's not hard to imagine that with a little tweaking a Greenland block could form.

[karlos1983 21,702]

28 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GLOSEA left then, still don't think mid Dec onwards is over for coldies. EC46 may also find the next few weeks signal hard to decipher and knock it off course further on - I'll stay confident for a few more days and see what happens. If it's wrong then you never know, we may have a rear loaded winter on our hands!!  

Ian F tweeted yesterday themat they still think a shift to cold mid Dec, -although confidence is low. I wonder what that thought is now after the overnight runs!!!

He may Have tweeted that, but it's still a climb down, next few tweets will probably end up with complete climb down. Doesn't look as bad then. And let's be honest he's not been in here to tell us differently, which if glosea was still showing a strong signal for HLB then I'm sure he would have. 

*this is not a dig at Ian *

I can't help but feel massively disappointed, all the hype through November, it's been a really long month of being patient and watch a pattern evolve, but we miss out this time by the looks of it.

ive not given up hope completely yet*, but my laptop is lucky it's still functioning the way I feel.

i don't think pros should stop long range predictions, just because it might not come off this time, no way!! If we took that attitude throughout evolution we wouldn't have got very far!! Learning curves are massively important to get the result you want, more so when dealing with the amount of variables when the weather is concerned. Remember a lot of effort goes into it as well, I solute them, regardless of the end result as it only takes one variable that could throw the entire prediction into doubt.