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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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8 minutes ago, More Snow said:

 as has been said before we dont need blocking to get cold in... it most certainly helps but is not the be all and end all

This is very true:santa-emoji:

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6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

No real change in the extended ECMWF EPS - maybe the Aleutian positive anomaly is slightly nearer the pole.  Shallow positive heights remain from Greenland through the British Isles and into Iberia with significant low heights over Russia.

One thing did strike me regarding the extended EPS - a more distinct clustering around cold conditions at day fifteen. You would, under normal circumstances, expect the spread to widen by that range. I've used the SE sector of the Netherlands options.

eps_pluim_tt_06380.png

 

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Another disappointing Gfs run, this last chart summed it up with a feeble rPm incursion!:D

h850t850eu.png

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27 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Fred - I enjoy your analysis along with RJS thinking, but I have to say you are becoming inconsistent. On Saturday you said this:

"I am not surprised re the 00z ECM. I called the Bartlett High output it showed for early Dec as wrong. I still call it wrong.  We have just had a massive Earth facing coronal hole with large geo-magnetic pulse with increase / burst of solar wind. I believe this will buckle the jet stream hence my thoughts of the HP to our NW would develop.  We will see now if this ECM change gathers momentum."

I'm genuinely confused. What is your forecasting method actually showing for the next few weeks? 

No Bartlett HP, the ECM had us under what next week shows.... not for now.  However the link to NW much weaker than expected but some nice cold temps as HP did not sink as it forecast.  As ever middle ground was arrived at....something to keep in mind as we go forward.  Next few weeks.....no major northern blocking of great effect to UK...stormy period approaching mid month after a mildish blip as the HP flattens and then with a developing deep trough moving to our N/NE with sub lows over U.K. with pM or returning pM flow.  Could be colder but I am going for middle ground.  10-16 of initial main interest

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Well if the EC46 still says cold then it's good news, as the GFS now agrees with the ECM 240

ECH1-240-2.gif

gfsnh-0-240-2.png

If it doesn't say cold however, delete this post from your mind... It wasn't me who said it....

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4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Well if the EC46 still says cold then it's good news, as the GFS now agrees with the ECM 240

ECH1-240-2.gif

gfsnh-0-240-2.png

If it doesn't say cold however, delete this post from your mind... It wasn't me who said it....

But does the ECM op day 10 agree with the ec46 mean at day 10?  Probably not but I guess it could. not sure why it's a good thing anyway. It will change in the short term anyway. It's the mid to long term that's important 

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But does the ECM op day 10 agree with the ec46 mean at day 10?  Probably not but I guess it could. not sure why it's a good thing anyway. It will change in the short term anyway. It's the mid to long term that's important 

I don't know BA. The op mean is close,

EDH1-240.gif

We'll see when it comes out. Well... somebody will see, whoever can see it!

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24 minutes ago, Nouska said:

One thing did strike me regarding the extended EPS - a more distinct clustering around cold conditions at day fifteen. You would, under normal circumstances, expect the spread to widen by that range. I've used the SE sector of the Netherlands options.

eps_pluim_tt_06380.png

 

So the ECM ensembles quickly get off the mild train after about the 11th. A rather cooler trend thereafter - I doubt there are many SWlys on the members.

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Well, there was no way to sugarcoat the models today, hopefully they will look better tomorrow!:D

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GFS ENS 17 says yes we can all go to bed happy sweet dreams.

I might add there are quite a few that bring interest it ani't over

gensnh-17-1-372.png

gensnh-17-0-384.png

Edited by booferking

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As long as we get the holy grail, snow on Xmas day I really don't mind some south westerlies for a week. I've been waiting 37 years for one and I feel my snow number has come up.

chin up everyone the models can and will change. Thanks to all the normal posters that keep me up to date after heavy days at work your contribution is greatly appreciated . Hooray today is winter now cmon lets hope we get a real taste after all we all deserve it.

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Just saying, the ens aren't without interest. 4 greenies by the end and several others which fall into the 'interesting with potential' category. The beginning of the anticipated change around or a case of straws clutching? Let's await tomorrow....

Edited by ITSY

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Take it the EC46 isn't much cop, based on the lack of posts on it.

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4 hours ago, Greenland1080 said:

Even though seems to be a lot of deflation tonight, with most models showing +NAO , ECM delayed, Ec46 delayed, wavering of the models and model fatigue setting in on the 1st December:D....even the latest CFS has gone awol im still optimistic of a change mid month.........The daddy is the carnival model from Brazil still showing the way......Come on coldies...We deserve a White Xmas period for once to warm the cockles and have a very festive seasonal Christmas

 

image.png

+NAO wasn't forecast over a week ago from this time so who's to say the next few days are showing right?

 

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Take it the EC46 isn't much cop, based on the lack of posts on it.

The only person I know who posts it is Ian F, him not posted doesn't mean anything. I think the 15 day ECM ENS is about the best we can gleam from today, FI Defo drops quite sharply at the end.

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2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

models aren't pretty but may well flip but haven't,  Tamara, interesting observation but a tad harsh ? ;-) 

BFTP

No very true. Must be frustrating for peple like Tamara and Gav who put so much effort and knowledge into their passion for weather to have to see the utter nonsense that often gets posted here.

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It is a shame ECM ensembles were delayed or peeps may have gone to bed a little happier.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

GFS Op joins the hunt for height rises to our NE even though it ploughs the Atlantic through as expected in FI

gfsnh-0-264.png

GEM was an interesting run and shows there is still a sniff of a chance of reamplifying the pattern quicker.

Edited by Mucka

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I had a look at EPS 46. The control offers coldies what they want from around day 14, but the ensemble mean doesn't look too keen, but it also is showing a little above seasonal, so nothing too mild. I can't see the individual members to see how they get there, though, but one assumes quite a split is taking place.

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When i looked at Gfs0z i honestly thought it was Dec 2015,its basically low after low, i would imagine flooding might be an issue if that run is anywhere near the mark, hopefully a huge mild/wet outlier!!!

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Even though there is no cold on the horizon take hope from this ensemble that things can change quickly.

From this

gensnh-13-1-264.png

to this just 120h later

gensnh-13-1-384.png

 

graphe3_1000_258_96___.gif

Edited by Mucka

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