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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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The ECM mean at T240 looks not too bad for a mean 240 chart, particularly if you look at the 216 chart first, slight +ve height rises ridging up towards Iceland (weak admittedly), the problem is that several GEFS have had this but just seems to flatten out as opposed to building a decent clustering with an Iceway high.

EDH1-240_tls2.GIF

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The first half of winter.

Was it ever set in stone? Or this a case of peoples expectations getting a bit too carried away.

Every time Ian gave us an update he always advised caution and because of the range things can change, but those little details are usually overlooked.

Edited by SN0WM4N

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Whilst some posters set about slitting their wrists at tonights output ...........................................Its amazing sometimes when you look at old weather charts and you find  a day with a great big chunk of the vortex over western Greenland and a low pressure at 965 over southern Greenland with south westerlies blowing across across the UK along with a big azores high ridging up by Iberia and to your surprise you find its not December19th 2014 but December 19th 1962.....................................remember guys its always darkest before the dawn.

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ECM op goes to 10/12

the last 46 didn't remove the euro heights till the 19th. a lit can happen in 9 days!

if Matt hadn't made his post last night then I doubt there would be so many glass empty posts

I'm still not going to take the upcoming 46 too seriously if it removes the HLB later this month as that would be a sudden change and we know there are currently patterns in the Pacific which are perhaps being mis modelled 

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Looking at the ECM control run on De Bilt that looks like it brings in a ne flow there after a spell of wet weather. It does follow the op closely till day ten and then I think what we see is high pressure over the top of that low you can see on the op to the north east which eventually sinks. The wind goes from nw to ne for two days then north and then w/sw.

 

 

 

Edited by nick sussex

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ECM op goes to 10/12

the last 46 didn't remove the euro heights till the 19th. a lit can happen in 9 days!

if Matt hadn't made his post last night then I doubt there would be so many glass empty posts

I'm still not going to take the upcoming 46 too seriously if it removes the HLB later this month as that would be a sudden change and we know there are currently patterns in the Pacific which are perhaps being mis modelled 

Hmmm, I still disagree with that argument generally, with operational / Control runs - absolutely but with Ensembles, that's what they are there for surely, to 'catch' poor modelling (particularly at range) which would otherwise slip through the net.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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I know Steve Murr alluded to it earlier with another run but to my eyes, the ECM at 96 hours actually looks the most amplified and promising chart of this period so far yet that is only what we would be saying if we had no idea how its forecast to turn out just 48 hours later! I'm guessing that blob of PV which is pushed by the pacific ridge towards Svalbard is playing a part why that promising looking ridge collapses very quickly.

I think the trend for mild is nearly all but nailed on now, its just a case on how long it will last and just how mild it will get.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hmmm, I still disagree with that argument generally, with operational / Control runs - absolutely but with Ensembles, that's what they are there for surely, to 'catch' poor modelling (particularly at range) which would otherwise slip through the net.

BA does have a point Feb re the Pacific. The issue is that even with those tweeks to the ensembles until the situation in the Pacific is resolved we're not sure how much effect thats having on the outputs and ensembles.

It was very unusual to read that MJO update yesterday to see the forecaster make such an issue of the conflicting signals.

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Just now, nick sussex said:

BA does have a point Feb re the Pacific. The issue is that even with those tweeks to the ensembles until the situation in the Pacific is resolved we're not sure how much effect thats having on the outputs and ensembles.

It was very unusual to read that MJO update yesterday to see the forecaster make such an issue of the conflicting signals.

Yes if it just mutes the signal and its just this in isolation, but if it completely blows it away, along with everything else that has happened over the last 24 hours then........     The point is if there were (just for arguments sake) 2 distinct clusters say with a 10 member cluster flatlining the 850hpa temps at -8 to -10 from a powerhouse N'e flow and Greeny high, then the others zonal, I would say possible still, but if its just a spaghetti like spread from -5c to +5c. all zonal - some coldish, then no way, people trot out the Jan 13 incident, that didn't just pop out the blue, that was forecasted a month before by the met, and always had some ensemble support.

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Does anyone know when the ecm46 is released tonight. Has it been delayed?

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19 minutes ago, terrier said:

I really don't understand the doom and gloom tonight. Yes the gfs ecm and ukmo are showing milder temps next week. But this has always been suggested by the met office. We are only on the 1st of Dec. We still have another 12 weeks of winter to go. Plenty of twist and turns ahead and I'm sure we will see a switch to colder weather later into Dec. Which none of the models will be even picking up on yet. Keep calm and carry on. We certainly aren't seeing the jet stream barrelling through the uk like last year. 

This is the "want it now" generation.  We want our 10 feet of snow and we want is now!

Edited by mulzy

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2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Does anyone know when the ecm46 is released tonight. Has it been delayed?

Not delayed as I understand it.

test8.gif

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The jet flatten the high quicker this time im liking that tracking further south later on.

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2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This is the "want it now" generation.  We want out 10 feet of snow and we want is now!

Not sure what generation has got to do with making a forecast based on the current trends.

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Just now, booferking said:

The jet flatten the high quicker this time im liking that tracking further south later on.

A shortwave develops earlier on which stops the high pushing up into the pole from our side. 

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I think one encouragement I can see in the output is that there does not seem to be a suggestion as of yet of the cold pool in Western Russia being shifted by this projected mild SW'lies, think if that did happen then it will look a long way back for any significant cold weather but whilst its there, then theres a chance it could come into play.

Not expecting too many miracles in the coming day, obviously there be differences in the detail but be surprised if the mild flow gets delayed in anyway. Just hopefully we won't see it lasting for too long but you got to say there is now hints the jet stream will be waking up and with hints also the PV could be dropping into Canada and the states then a wet and windy period could be around the corner.

All a long way off though and as per ever in the weather nothing is a certainty.

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Our we not just entering the mild blip that most models showed and experts predicted.

so I'm a bit confused at all the middle of march posts.

Its no shock that models flip, but they can also flip back.

the point being even at this stage we are all still learning on every run and find it fascinating that no one will ever predict the future of our weather.

not with current technology anyway ( yet )

every single post on this thread is a contribution to a great thread and we all try our best to interpret every run for four months.

let the winter comense.

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1 hour ago, mcweather said:

Whilst some posters set about slitting their wrists at tonights output ...........................................Its amazing sometimes when you look at old weather charts and you find  a day with a great big chunk of the vortex over western Greenland and a low pressure at 965 over southern Greenland with south westerlies blowing across across the UK along with a big azores high ridging up by Iberia and to your surprise you find its not December19th 2014 but December 19th 1962.....................................remember guys its always darkest before the dawn.

Ahh yes December 2014....7 days after the date you mention many of us including myself had a rather good snow fall followed by 7 days of ice and cold... backed up by more snow from Zonality in Jan 2015... as has been said before we dont need blocking to get cold in... it most certainly helps but is not the be all and end all

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The Gfs 18z shows it turning very mild later next week, especially further south  but also more unsettled with bands of rain interspersed with warm sunny spells.

ukmaxtemp.png

hgt500-1000.png

hgt500-1000 (1).png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

h850t850eu.png

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No real change in the extended ECMWF EPS - maybe the Aleutian positive anomaly is slightly nearer the pole.  Shallow positive heights remain from Greenland through the British Isles and into Iberia with significant low heights over Russia.

Edited by mulzy

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1 hour ago, Tamara said:

 

Two examples of two people who appear each winter as boorish armchair critics who concentrate on taking apart people who make an effort to offer an opinion (based on whatever research), but offer nothing/nada themselves. 

This type of repetitious stuff is far more negative and lacking in constructive purpose than anything disappointing that doesn't satiate weather preferences as offered by the computer models

Have a nice evening, whatever the ECM extended offers:)

models aren't pretty but may well flip but haven't,  Tamara, interesting observation but a tad harsh ? ;-) 

BFTP

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No joy whatsoever from the gfs pub run. That's good news imo. I would be more worried if it showed a cold flip as this has never materialised from an 18z in the past :)

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