Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Barry95 said:

Despite all the background signals and forecasts from the 'experts', to a cold blocked pattern change, it actually looks more likely it will be mild based on current model output.

It sure looks positive.. NAO

[Singularity]

Increase the upstream amplification at the right time and the ECM 12z would raise some eyebrows. We can only wait and see what we have from the models in four or five days time. A bit boring I know!

Running through the evolution between +120 and +144, I swear there's two weak disturbances merging with the main Atlantic trough, both at the perfect time to allow the jet to overrun the ridge when otherwise this would not have occurred. We may have been even more unlucky than usual there. Which surely means we're owed some luck later in the month 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

 

I suppose Frosty that the only people happy with that set up are the ones going to Portugal for Christmas...............I'll get my coat then

It is going to be a time for patience as we've got a long way to go.My advice is to dip in and out of the forum and the outputs unless you're of strong substance or have one to hand.

Why would they be happy? Portugal would fare even worse (based on current model output), bloody uncomfortable temps to go with no snow as well.

Edited December 1, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Froze were the Days]

Back to the models and very reminiscent of last December now showing up...who would have thought it a few days ago.

Edited December 1, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Sweatyman]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The only thing to comment about on the ECM is the huge snowstorm over the US moving through the central then eastern states !

ive blanked out the UK because- well its awful.

Every bloomin time. Bet it'll happen

[acinonyx]

Since this is the model output discussion, I've got a question to ask about model variability. I've noticed that the MJO is very hard to model - it does seem like one of the larger sources of model error. Now, given that the areas where the MJO is in an active phase are huge areas (e.g. maritime continent is a pretty big place), it has struck me that the models can get the position of the MJO badly wrong - like off by a quarter of the globe in 10 days. Or the strength forecast can be wrong - sometimes one would forecast the MJO decaying to virtually nothing, and yet another model would predict that several hundred square miles of convection would amplify - within 7-10 days.

That does seem to me to be a serious error - to miss a huge area of enhanced convection or to misplace it by a quarter of the globe. Or is the error smaller than what I imagine it to be?

So then - why is the MJO such a fickle, difficult to predict beast?

[Smiler1709]

I came, I saw, I went lol

not the best of model runs. Return to mild and rubbish just doesn't do it for me.

time for a break, see you all in 5-6 days. Fingers crossed it's better. 

[Methuselah]

Let's hope that the GFS (the undisputed ACME of computer models) pulls a rabbit out of the hat, tonight? Well, there's still plenty of time yet...89 days? A lot can happen in 89 days!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Mid month prayers seem to be disintegrating.....major solar / lunar period coming between 10-16 .....let's see how good the timing is

 

BFTP

[booferking]

'The ship is rocking we need it steadied when can we expect Ec46 to come out?

[Winter-Chaser]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

'The ship is rocking we need it steadied when can we expect Ec46 to come out?

10pm

[doghouse]

I seem to remember Dec 2012 something very akin to what's happening now. At that time there seemed to arguments regarding short wave spoilers  on one hand and the atmospheric long wave pattern not being conducive to a cold pattern on the other hand.Well, after all that's been posted about a favourable hemispheric pattern in the last two months it's refreshing to see nothing has changed in that talk of a cold pattern can disappear quicker than snow of a dyke

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

'The ship is rocking we need it steadied when can we expect Ec46 to come out?

i thought he had!!!not sure but id expect a slight mellowing of the blocked signal but still staying on the cold side but unsettled imo

[Frosty.]

well it was quite amazing how similar the Ecm / Gem 12z are at T+240 with a  breakaway from high pressure, albeit probably only briefly breaking the shackles of high pressure dominance.

[Timmytour]

I've seen too many model runs of late full of eastern promise to despair and trust in the ones that now show western horror! I still think a big big shift is in the cards, one that produce a potential for snow down south next week.

Whether it then goes on to verify however....

[feb1991blizzard]

This could be a hectic period of model watching coming up, we could be having the ECM 240 ens mean, quickly followed by someone updating us on the full suite, the EC46, all at the same time as the 18z GFS coming out, interesting couple of hours - could be make or break.

[Tamara]

22 minutes ago, Barry95 said:

Despite all the background signals and forecasts from the 'experts', to a cold blocked pattern change, it actually looks more likely it will be mild based on current model output.

 

20 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Done a bit of digging in last 15 mins and the answer is that Gav is a weather enthusiast who....erm.....bases his forecasts on ....erm....model outputs. A kind of video-based "this is what the weather computer output" is forecasting.

Erm......that's about it from what i can interpret.....so it must be true.....because it's on the internet.

Two examples of two people who appear each winter as boorish armchair critics who concentrate on taking apart people who make an effort to offer an opinion (based on whatever research), but offer nothing/nada themselves. 

This type of repetitious stuff is far more negative and lacking in constructive purpose than anything disappointing that doesn't satiate weather preferences as offered by the computer models

Have a nice evening, whatever the ECM extended offers

[Paul_1978]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This could be a hectic period of model watching coming up, we could be having the ECM 240 ens mean, quickly followed by someone updating us on the full suite, the EC46, all at the same time as the 18z GFS coming out, interesting couple of hours - could be make or break.

Don't forget, today Met Office update STILL shows cold weather returning later in Dec. I feel we need to just get through this milder spell and keep our eye on the models for a colder spell returning. 

[booferking]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This could be a hectic period of model watching coming up, we could be having the ECM 240 ens mean, quickly followed by someone updating us on the full suite, the EC46, all at the same time as the 18z GFS coming out, interesting couple of hours - could be make or break.

This could literally break the internet weather data overload.

Edited December 1, 2016 by booferking

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Don't forget, today Met Office update STILL shows cold weather returning later in Dec. I feel we need to just get through this milder spell and keep our eye on the models for a colder spell returning. 

beginning to think though that it will either be the mid latt high or that they will amend that forecast swiftly (to out and out zonal), realising its already going to bust, I'm just not liking the strat forecasts, we really need that wave 2, aided mostly from the pacific side to really beef up and stay in situ, and quickly or it will be too late, once that mid strat vortex gets going then its likely it will put us out of action until mid Jan.

Edited December 1, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This could be a hectic period of model watching coming up, we could be having the ECM 240 ens mean, quickly followed by someone updating us on the full suite, the EC46, all at the same time as the 18z GFS coming out, interesting couple of hours - could be make or break.

Could make or break what?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, SN0WM4N said:

Could make or break what?

The first half of winter.

 

Edited December 1, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[nick sussex]

You have to laugh or you'll cry! Pretty desperate outputs tonight and the UKMO might be getting concerned after many had stock piled supplies to combat the imminent mid month freeze!

The ECM takes to T240hrs to displace the high and then looks like it will flatten it again as the energy piles east from the ne USA. Theres just not enough upstream amplification to pull the high much further to the nw . I think looking at the trend of tonights outputs the only thing that can save us is some pressure rise to the ne to force the angle of the jet more nw/se.

Being charitable/desperate/ delusional/ I'll leave it to members to decide there are several stages during the ECM when things could turn out more favourably.

Going on recent luck as Singularity pointed out with events conspiring to send all the energy over the block I wouldn't put too much money on salvation but currently the chance of a Greenland high is very low and so its that area ne of Iceland which might deliver something. I stress might!

[DR(S)NO]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The first half of winter.

This confuses me..admittedly it happens easily!!

Only a few weeks ago it felt as though we could be about to have a great December. Yet now forecasts are poorer( if it's cold your after)

So why should I believe the current output will 'break' the first half of Winter?

[Captain Shortwave]

7 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Could make or break what?

Probably the laptops of half of the people on here 

Not a great outlook with heights declining and then settling over Europe with a broad southerly flow veering more to the south west or west later.

         

There is still hope that we can avoid too much cold/unstable air being pushed towards Greenland and feeding the vortex lobe over Hudson/Greenland. There is still some high latitude heights present so things could change if we get a little luck. Lets hope the current uncertainties in the Pacific slowly disappear so we can get a clearer picture and hopefully a better mid to long range solution than what is currently on offer.

Worth noting the uncertainty in the 8-10 day range, biggest uncertainty between Iceland and Greenland which would suggest a range of solutions from deep low heights (Zonal) or more amplified north westerly solutions (ECM op day ten or more amplified still). 

Edited December 1, 2016 by Captain Shortwave