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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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Ecm is down the pub ,what's going on in the wood shed is there a surprise for us all ,cheers :yahoo::yahoo:

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Just now, johncam said:

been a long term lurker, quick question to our more learned posters, why do you believe the extended ECM will be correct but no one seems to believe the short term models will be correct?

Just asking? :-) 

Not sure what the experts think but I am certain the EC46 Will flip to no high latitude blocking at all tonight and much milder weather probably although with some fog and frost.

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1 minute ago, johncam said:

been a long term lurker, quick question to our more learned posters, why do you believe the extended ECM will be correct but no one seems to believe the short term models will be correct?

Just asking? :-) 

because the short term output is poor and theres still belief the extended output will improve !!

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Whilst not much is happening a throwback to November 1st and the ECM monthly seems to be pretty close for the temps

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20161101_m1.png

 

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Steady as she goes at T0.

I hardly dare look:D

Hope the Ecm 12z gives us something to cheer at the end of a poor looking set of models so far today. 

hidingbehindcouch.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Good agreement on the positioning of the high between the main models at T24. HP stuck over us.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure what the experts think but I am certain the EC46 Will flip to no high latitude blocking at all tonight and much milder weather probably although with some fog and frost.

I'm inclined to agree, I think it will be removed

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And - as nobody's mention either BOM or NAVGEM - things can't be looking too bad...always a good sign, that!:D

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Good agreement on the positioning of the high between the main models at 24. HP stuck over us.

Damn I was hoping for snowmaggedon this time tomorrow :(

 

As you were at day 5 on the ECM, typical really... Models are only consistent when it's not what we're after.

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14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And - as nobody's mention either BOM or NAVGEM - things can't be looking too bad...always a good sign, that!:D

Maybe lol but one thing these long range seasonal models , seem to be a waste of time ,net weather winter forecast already looks dodgy :( cuz seasonal models they use to forecast ,look to be incorrect 

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9 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Gavs Winter forecast

Dry quite cold , wintry potential/ snow potential more than in recent winters but milder spells also likely.  on off cold pattern rather than cold locked in

Jan likely to be the coldest of the three months

I asked the Q earlier today in this thread - who is Gav? At the mo, as no one has answered, i've decided he's a mythical internet being who some take as gospel (weatherwise).

What exactly are his metrological credentials?

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12 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Gavs Winter forecast

milder spells also likely

This must be one of Gavs mild spells showing on the Gem 12z:D

GEMOPEU12_120_2.png

GEMOPEU12_144_2.png

GEMOPEU12_168_2.png

GEMOPEU12_192_2.png

GEMOPEU12_216_2.png

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Just now, Frosty. said:

This must be one of Gavs mild spells showing on the Gem 12z:D

GEMOPEU12_120_2.png

GEMOPEU12_144_2.png

GEMOPEU12_168_2.png

GEMOPEU12_192_2.png

GEMOPEU12_216_2.png

Bbq time!

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Not suprised there is little comments on ecm, its utterly repulsive....Euro slug anyone

...

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As you were from ECM with south westerly winds arriving next week...

ECMOPEU12_96_2.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.png

...However, D10 like GEM shows cooler air coming back

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not suprised there is little comments on ecm, its utterly repulsive....Euro slug anyone

...

It becomes mild to be sure but ends cooler like the Gem 12z

ECMOPEU12_144_2.png

ECMOPEU12_168_2.png

ECMOPEU12_192_2.png

ECMOPEU12_216_2.png

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This must be one of Gavs mild spells showing on the Gem 12z:D

GEMOPEU12_120_2.png

GEMOPEU12_144_2.png

GEMOPEU12_168_2.png

GEMOPEU12_192_2.png

GEMOPEU12_216_2.png

 

 

I suppose Frosty that the only people happy with that set up are the ones going to Portugal for Christmas...............I'll get my coat then

Tumbleweed Animation Tumbleweed_ it's a big place,.jpg

It is going to be a time for patience as we've got a long way to go.My advice is to dip in and out of the forum and the outputs unless you're of strong substance or have one to hand.:D

Edited by winterof79

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48 minutes ago, johncam said:

been a long term lurker, quick question to our more learned posters, why do you believe the extended ECM will be correct but no one seems to believe the short term models will be correct?

Just asking? :-) 

Well I've been watching the models for decades, 15 years on the web, and I haven't often seen the EC46 have much more intuition than one could guess from the ECM T240 mean. I don't really have much time for it. Glossea seems to have a slightly better handle on long term shifts (last Feb/Mar, late Aug were good calls by this model) but even so subject to delays and swings.

Just an opinion.

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not suprised there is little comments on ecm, its utterly repulsive....Euro slug anyone

...

It's pretty standard fare for a UK winter so it is:D

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The end of the ECM run is a ominous sign of things to come. We can't get away from a return to northerlies. We're on a downward trend of temperatures in the last 2 months. I personally don't want it to be prolonged but I think it's inevitable soon after a short period of kind Sw'lies.

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Despite all the background signals and forecasts from the 'experts', to a cold blocked pattern change, it actually looks more likely it will be mild based on current model output.

Edited by Barry95

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