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Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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6 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The 4wk JMA update is following the UKMO script anyway. High slap bang over us week two and then signal for negative mslp in the Med with positive heights over Greenland to see out the month.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/pztmap.php

Week 4 shows higher than normal heights over Greenland and the North Atlantic 

IMG_3796.PNG

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16 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Tamara, can I just take this moment to say how outstanding your input is on here (even though I can't pretend to understand half of it)! Kol ha'kvod - as they say :) 

I second that Lady Tolstoy. Excellent post.

The output at the moment is certainly a disappointment - no getting away from that. I had looked for a retrogression rather than a flattening of the high. However my computer screen reads 1st December. So - 1 down, about 89 to go not counting March. Background signals are still very good and the frost down here over the last 3 days has been great to see. Proper winter landscape. Still much to be enthusiastic about...

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Perfect, lets keep that vibe going...BIG EC46 tonight, if this sticks too its guns this place will stop with so much negativity I'm sure.

Sorry, I'm sure this question has been asked many times before but what time is the EC46 tonight? 

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1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:

Sorry, I'm sure this question has been asked many times before but what time is the EC46 tonight? 

2200, it's not guaranteed we see the results however, we rely on someone posting it who has access. 

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Week 4 shows higher than normal heights over Greenland and the North Atlantic

Is that not what I said?

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2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Is that not what I said?

Yes sorry, I totally misread your post :oops:

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Some excellent posts in the last few hours.

Good point @Banbury about some pinning hopes on 15th in response to hearing 'mid-month'; its not that precise a term and typical leeway with weather pattern signals is in the order of a week or even ten days later in time.

@nick sussex I too am not entirely convinced about the flattening of our ridge... even if the Atlantic clears the first hurdle, if there's too much signal for flattening the jet being derived from the tropics then there could be enough impact even in the 6-8 day range to tip the balance back in favour of the ridge making steps to the northwest.

Something to watch out for while we wait for the longer term to settle down.

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2 hours ago, warrenb said:

Comparion with 1962  is still intresting

Just one of those statistical quirks that Nov. '62 was also 5.5 for the CET. :closedeyes:

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1 minute ago, Gael_Force said:

Just one of those statistical quirks that Nov. '62 was also 5.5 for the CET. :closedeyes:

And that's where any similarities will end:)

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With vast amounts of explanations going on and what could or should happen, its really only any good if the atmosphere responds to the proposed effects?

It seems that something can happen to quickly override these factors.  Hence when / ifs / nots creeping into posts.  

The signal for significant northern blocking in near to mid term for me is not there.....so most of Dec  at least.  Potential of better last third/ week imo

 

BFTP 

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7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Some excellent posts in the last few hours.

Good point @Banbury about some pinning hopes on 15th in response to hearing 'mid-month'; its not that precise a term and typical leeway with weather pattern signals is in the order of a week or even ten days later in time.

@nick sussex I too am not entirely convinced about the flattening of our ridge... even if the Atlantic clears the first hurdle, if there's too much signal for flattening the jet being derived from the tropics then there could be enough impact even in the 6-8 day range to tip the balance back in favour of the ridge making steps to the northwest.

Something to watch out for while we wait for the longer term to settle down.

One of the good aspects of the JMA forecast is that they show their forecast for the tropics: I cannot understand it but you'll be able to see what goes with the NH forecast I posted up the page.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/zpcmap.php

 

Edited by Gael_Force

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

And that's where any similarities will end:)

Wow Karl, not feeling the positive vibe the past couple of days :shok:

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Wow Karl, not feeling the positive vibe the past couple of days :shok:

Just being realistic / cautious..I would settle for a colder December than last year but that wouldn't be difficult would it:D

Edited by Frosty.

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12 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Just one of those statistical quirks that Nov. '62 was also 5.5 for the CET. :closedeyes:

It's actually 5.6°C this year, I know as I won it. :-) 

It would be nice  if it was a portent, but unfortunately  The similarity probably doesn't mean anything. 

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Power cuts at the ECMWF this afternoon may mean this evening's 12z will be delayed. They are in the process of restarting the super computers which may take up to 2 hours.

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Just now, Nick L said:

Power cuts at the ECMWF this afternoon may mean this evening's 12z will be delayed. They are in the process of restarting the super computers which may take up to 2 hours.

Will it make any difference to the EC46?

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The GEFS 6z mean shows a milder swly flow eventually  setting in next week with quite a mobile / changeable pattern which has positive NAO stamped all over it. Towards mid Dec shows less mild air sourced more from the north atlantic than mid with temps returning closer to average but no hints in the extended range of anything wintry. 

GFSAVGEU06_144_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_168_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_192_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_192_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_216_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_240_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_264_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_288_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_336_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_384_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Good hopefully a good old reset will bring back the blocking confidence :D

It definitely needs a reboot, the outlook is more autumnal than wintry with mild / average temps indicated.

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35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Will it make any difference to the EC46?

I'd have thought so.

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6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I'd have thought so.

They certainly choose their moments don't they lol

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55 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Will it make any difference to the EC46?

Week 3 will be missing .........

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