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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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I think I must bite the bullet! The GFS has been hinting of a return to milder conditions for a few days now and the UKMO is now starting to pick that up both in their model and forecasts. As others have stated, predictions of milder conditions are more likely to come to fruition than cooler conditions. I think we're just going to have to "ride the storm!" :(

gfs-0-96.png gfs-0-120.png gfs-0-144.png
UW96-21.GIF?01-05 UW120-21.GIF?01-05 UW144-21.GIF?01-05

Edited by Grimers

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11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I think the energy will push over the top based on the 168 to 192 progression. Also you meant who knows not nos, which is an abbreviation for nitrous oxide.

sorry model fatigue altho you no what i meen:rofl:.Anyway ecm improves at the ten day to a certain  extent 

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Well not great model output this morning ukmo looks awful if it cold your after. Most models do show westerly winds moving in next week so feeling mild. But remember the charts only go out to the 11th of Dec. So still some way off mid Dec. Even if Dec does end up zonal we still have Jan/ Feb for winter prospects. At least we aren't seeing a strong jet stream smashing into the uk. Which ruined xmas for a lot of people last year. I'm sure what the ukmo gfs and ecm are showing are great viewing for them. 

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Looks like we're heading into the pain zone...big question is will the 'gain' phase Follow?  Both GFS and ECM at day 10 look interesting but at present are at the close but no cigar stage. When is the next bout of EC 46 Updates?  

Edited by KTtom

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Still doesn't look like there will be any Atlantic domination though, so whenever that is the case, we're at least one step ahead of most winters. Yes, next week is looking like it may turn mild for a while....but after then? Who knows! :)

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I think the forum needs some positive news from the EC46 and hopefully a day of better ECM and GFS ENS, lets hope that's the case. Yesterday was pretty depressing reading !! Lets not chase snow in the next 10 days, it's not happening and we are to get slightly milder for now. 

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

I think the forum needs some positive news from the EC46 and hopefully a day of better ECM and GFS ENS, lets hope that's the case. Yesterday was pretty depressing reading !! Lets not chase snow in the next 10 days, it's not happening and we are to get slightly milder for now. 

The milder spell has been a consistent signal for a while now and reflects the recent MetO further outlooks. I agree with @KTtom that it's what happens after this that will determine how December pans out. There are plenty of reasons to be encouraged though, many of which have already been outlined such as the lack of zonality and a still weak jet. I am happy to put my trust in the longer-term outlooks which broadly suggest a return to a blocked/colder pattern as we head towards mid-December + + +

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Good confidence that the high over us will eventually sink south, though GFS is more progressive in doing this, with a band of rain and milder air spreading across all parts next Wednesday, whilst 00z EC doesn't have frontal rain pushing east across all parts until next Friday.

The only glimmer of hope that the return of milder and unsettled SWly flow will be brief is from the 00z EC det. which days 9-10 has trough disruption in the N Atlantic and split trop PV with +ve 500mb heights over the north pole - which suggests potential for height rises to our north. But that far out we can't be confident on evolving like that.

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7 hours ago, DR(S)NO said:

I thought that a mild spell was always on the cards?

 

Correct, it was just the extent of the milder phase that was and perhaps still is in question.:)

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A look at the 8-10 day  N Hemisphere profile from both 00z GFS and EC ops shows the Aleutian omega ridge still working hard to push to the N pole - hence we see those +ve heights there ... the  trop PV clearly split with low heights over Russia and over northern Canada. Southerly tracking PFJ over N America ... but unfortunately for us the jet energy is going over the top of the western European ridge ahead of troughing over the NW Atlantic - so we get milder conditions eventually. Plenty of + height anomalies in the chart, but all in the wrong place for us. We really need to see more amplification to develop if want to get out of this pattern that prevent us from tapping into cold. Mid-December for the change?

ecgfs_00.gif

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More posts have had to be hidden..As already asked earlier,  Let's please only discuss what the 'Model Outputs' are showing in this thread as per title. There is a Winter thread open for anything else.

Thanks.

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CANSIPS Monthly is out. Worth pointing out that it is pretty much out on its own with this.

 

cansips_anom_t2m_globe_1.png

cansips_anom_z500_globe_1.png

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So a chilly end to Autumn and a couple of frosty starts to winter but here come the default UK winter and all its mushy mildness . The models have done there best to give us some false hope of a cold winter but once the Atlantic breaks through its going to be a long hard road back to anything cold. enjoy what we have while it lasts folks.

 

 

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41 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think many will take the nitrous oxide after viewing the models and not finding wintry nirvana pre mid month. 

For my part, I will continue to view the removal of high anomoly over Europe at the end of GEFS as a positive. 

Those high anomalies will be eroded eventually -  let's hope the GEFS are on the right track and they do get eroded before we eat up too much of December. Tell me it's unlikely they are underestimating the robustness of those heights at that range?

I've loved this frosty spell - absolutely gorgeous this morning driving in through the frosty wilderness of north Hampshire.

This doesn't fill me with joy.

 

Recm1681.gif

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7 minutes ago, jvenge said:

CANSIPS Monthly is out. Worth pointing out that it is pretty much out on its own with this.

 

cansips_anom_t2m_globe_1.png

cansips_anom_z500_globe_1.png

If I read the charts right, is that suggesting average temperatures and higher than average heights for to the W of the UK? If so, this would suggest a more anticyclonic flow for especially for N parts of the UK but dry and cold conditions for S parts of the UK.

Edited by Grimers

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I know its at day 10 but the ecm is the best op chart at day 10 we have had for a while. Keen to see the extended ensembles at 9am.

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A chilly start to next week but on Monday we can already see milder air moving into the south-west and this makes it's way further east by mid week

108-778UK.GIF?01-0132-778UK.GIF?01-0156-778UK.GIF?01-0

180-778UK.GIF?01-0204-778UK.GIF?01-0228-778UK.GIF?01-0

 

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7 hours ago, Banbury said:

I would have to disagree lol

Those charts on Gavs vid showed a 2 week period of Ice days / blizzards you name it = severe winter weather , not sure that has been hinted at by anyone

Who is this Gav guy anyway? Is he pro in this field, a professor at a uni or something or one of the internet bloggers? I genuinely know nowt about him.

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9 minutes ago, Grimers said:

If I read the charts right, is that suggesting average temperatures and higher than average heights for to the W of the UK? If so, this would suggest a more anticyclonic flow for especially for N parts of the UK but dry and cold conditions for S parts of the UK.

Well, worth pointing out that it is averaged over the month. The month as a whole puts the UK just at slightly above average, temperature wise. However, considering what the shorter to medium term models show, that just indicates whatever comes after doesn't cancel out the mild that comes first.

I don't know the history of this model too much to comment on its merits, but I really can't see how it can be right about Siberia. Also, it is hard to imagine what pattern could drop on the US in order for them to finish above average too, considering that the shorter to medium models show now. 

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The Ecm 00z gradually trends milder next week with winds becoming sly / swly and the peak of the mild spell is day 10 in the south with +10 T850 hPA:shok:

240_mslp850uk.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850.png

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38 minutes ago, jvenge said:

CANSIPS Monthly is out. Worth pointing out that it is pretty much out on its own with this.

 

cansips_anom_t2m_globe_1.png

cansips_anom_z500_globe_1.png

Been coming on here for years and never heard of CANSIPS!

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9 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Been coming on here for years and never heard of CANSIPS!

That's a fair point, but it would have been the new top model here if it showed cold ;-)

 

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It's interesting how the CANSIPS doesn't show a huge block of cold air over the USA as some mean and long range models have been showing.

cansips_anom_t2m_globe_1.png

Edited by Grimers

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The GEFS 00z mean shows a gradual trend to milder swly winds next week and even further ahead there is no hint of anything cold upstream..quite the opposite in fact.

21_144_500mb.png

21_168_500mb.png

21_144_850tmp.png

21_168_850tmp.png

21_192_850tmp.png

21_216_850tmp.png

21_240_850tmp.png

21_288_850tmp.png

21_360_850tmp.png

Edited by Frosty.

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