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Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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Just now, Gustywind said:

Presumably S/SE winds off the continent, so cool, cloudy, light winds, terrible air quality.

Erm not so sure about terrible air quality but this shows how wrong it can go. Fine line between an easterly and africa sourced southerly there!!

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8 minutes ago, malc said:

What conditions would you expect that to bring Knocker?

I'm merely musing but after the next round between the Atlantic trough/Azores ridge perhaps some phasing to the SW as the trough deconstructs with the HP thus building to the north if the polar conformations are friendly. This would also allow the trough to the east to orientate closer to the south east of the UK. I reiterate is this just me musing and not to be taken too seriously.

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GFS again sending some powerful looking Atlantic storms to our shores this morning in FI, but obviously not to be taken seriously yet.

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I agree with others - it looks like there are tentative signs of a split vortex developing  by mid month, so potential for something to develop from there. Until then, looking like a week of very mild temperatures to get through.

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13 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

GFS again sending some powerful looking Atlantic storms to our shores this morning in FI, but obviously not to be taken seriously yet.

We need to go some to catch up on last winter's storm rollercoaster. One year ago this week from Storm Desmond

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4 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

We need to go some to catch up on last winter's storm rollercoaster. One year ago this week from Storm Desmond

Yep running late this year, we've only got to A, but if the GFS verifies, we may be talking Barbara, C and possibly D names :rofl:

 

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Yes please Santa!

Either will do

GFSP05EU00_348_1.png

GFSP05EU00_348_2.png

GFSP18EU00_384_1.png

GFSP18EU00_384_2.png

As long as it's not this

GFSP11EU00_378_2.png

Fingers crossed. :D

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Yep - but the named storm this year was a bit of a contrast to last year, in that it strengthened and moved up from the south. Everything last year was fuelled by that crazy vortex and massive temperature gradient across the Atlantic spinning up endless big storms. We've still yet to see a period of Atlantic domination - even this weeks efforts aren't anything special! It really has been a strange autumn.

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There are short term hazards before the much milder air swamps the uk by wednesday, fog tonight and early tomorrow looks nasty..take care:) 

res49e.jpg

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32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yep - but the named storm this year was a bit of a contrast to last year, in that it strengthened and moved up from the south. Everything last year was fuelled by that crazy vortex and massive temperature gradient across the Atlantic spinning up endless big storms. We've still yet to see a period of Atlantic domination - even this weeks efforts aren't anything special! It really has been a strange autumn.

True, and I agree, incredibly strange

Edited by Sparkiee storm

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

One thing still to note whist all this is going is that the Canada - eastern Europe conduit remains open with some very cold air out east.

But fear not the GEFS is still sniffing the coffee :shok:

gefs_z500a_nh_61.png

Yes - hopes for cold require cold pooling to our North and East, and while not barnstormingly cold the upper temps out east in a week's time still forecast to hold sufficient interest should we get a draw from that direction. Be careful you don't let Sidney sniff too much of that coffee knocks - it might upset his BBQ'd nuts!

ECM0-192.GIF?05-12

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10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There are short term hazards before the much milder air swamps the uk by wednesday, fog tonight and early tomorrow looks nasty..take care:) 

res49e.jpg

I agree frosty, some very dense fog expected.

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Going to be locking this in 2 mins to start a fresh thread.

New thread now open

 

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