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Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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We desperately need some trough disruption between T144 and T168hrs on the ECM. Need some energy to cut se and flatten the Euro slug high.

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Just now, nick sussex said:

We desperately need some trough disruption between T144 and T168hrs on the ECM. Need some energy to cut se and flatten the Euro slug high.

I fear the atlantic will cut across to meet the Siberian trough headed sw and cut us adrift of the colder air. at least its good to see the cross polar flow headed this way rather than the 00z which was to n America. if you have a ticket then you can get lucky !

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4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Hmm

ECH1-144.GIF?30-0   UN144-21.GIF?30-18

I wonder whether we are seeing a quicker breakdown of the UK with the ridge splitting with warm air advection pushing towards Greenland and the jet cutting underneath and riding over the top of a declining Euro high. It could be shorter term pain and longer term gain if the pattern flattens underneath a weak area of heights to our north/north west.

All conjecture as the day 6 modelling resembles a shotgun blast of random solutions.

Precisely what I have been trying to hint at since UKMO and GFS ensembles came out.

If we can get some cut off heights to our North and good Atlantic trough disruption we could be seeing the upstream pattern backed up and much quicker height rises to our NW than the forum is anticipating.

Could be a case of can't see the wood for the trees or could just be another model farting against the wind of change.

 

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31 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Very tricky if you're submitting a punt at the mean CET for December this evening! :unknw:

You and me, both. :cc_confused:

About to make an inaugral entry on here. Remembering my first ever TWO comp entry in Dec.2010 and everybody snorting in derision at my sub zero figure. :oops:on them!

Not getting the ADA vibes, visible back then, from the current model output but there's something afoot up there.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I fear the atlantic will cut across to meet the Siberian trough headed sw and cut us adrift of the colder air. at least its good to see the cross polar flow headed this way rather than the 00z which was to n America. if you have a ticket then you can get lucky !

I fear you maybe right. We need the PV further east at T144hrs, if we could get that trough disruption before that PV heads sw but it seems its one calamity after another!

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I'm not sure about upgrades..the Ecm 12z becomes milder next week.

168_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850.png

192_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I fear you maybe right. We need the PV further east at T144hrs, if we could get that trough disruption before that PV heads sw but it seems its one calamity after another!

pretty sure that the actual charts for day 6/7 aren't what the models are currently showing. bit too diffuse for my liking. given I don't believe what ecm shows at T168, the rest of the run is purely to use bandwidth !

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not sure about upgrades..the Ecm 12z becomes milder next week.

168_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850.png

Sure Its  only a week away Personally I will trust  models up to T120 and no further.

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I think we might have to call an Exorcist in to remove Satan from the outputs. To have the PV all to the ne and end up with whats on show at T192 hrs is quite unbelievable.

 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

pretty sure that the actual charts for day 6/7 aren't what the models are currently showing. bit too diffuse for my liking. given I don't believe what ecm shows at T168, the rest of the run is purely to use bandwidth !

Granted we can't assume the models have anything nailed at 144 given all the chopping and changing but ECM and UKMO are pretty close this evening and GFS not too far behind.

TWT I guess

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Nice to see the ECM has ditched its 0z output which is no surprise as again it was over doing the UK heights.

At D7 the ECM and GEFS mean:  ECH1-168.gifgensnh-21-1-168.png

Pretty good agreement though poor for cold as it is about the worst case scenario (at our latitude) in the whole NH, if cold is your cup of tea!

Still no change re two weeks time for anything notable, yes the 06z giveth as it is prone to, but not worth the time of day after D7. ECM is now back on track after blowing up the UK high for a few runs, new improved well I am not convinced yet. All just average December stuff forecast, a bit of this and that; no golden ticket for cold and snow yet.

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I notice the ukmo 12z doesn't look as good as yesterday, not surprising as its dreadful @ modelling day 6!:D

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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Just now, Frosty. said:

I notice the ukmo 12z doesn't look as good as yesterday, not surprising as its dreadful @ modelling day 6!:D

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Unlike the other models that have been rock solid at day 6? :wallbash:

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Dismal continuity from the ECM op runs today, at T216hrs unless that shortwave energy splits to the nw allowing the slug high to be pulled north west then I fear a tantrum coming on!

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Once again, the charts only look poor for cold within day 10 as no one really should be expecting them too. It is only from mid month onwards that a change to colder conditions are expected.

The forecasts by the Met office, GP, Tamara etc.. have all said mid month onwards, so why would you expect the models to be any different?

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Nice to see the ECM has ditched its 0z output which is no surprise as again it was over doing the UK heights.

At D7 the ECM and GEFS mean:  ECH1-168.gifgensnh-21-1-168.png

Pretty good agreement though poor for cold as it is about the worst case scenario (at our latitude) in the whole NH, if cold is your cup of tea!

Still no change re two weeks time for anything notable, yes the 06z giveth as it is prone to, but not worth the time of day after D7. ECM is now back on track after blowing up the UK high for a few runs, new improved well I am not convinced yet. All just average December stuff forecast, a bit of this and that; no golden ticket for cold and snow yet.

As predicted a few days ago by Ian F and others, for 2nd week of December i think.....so not really any shock. A mere interruption to the cold temps i think was predicted. Apologies if my memory is failing me though.

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Just now, Mucka said:

Unlike the other models that have been rock solid at day 6? :wallbash:

The ukmo takes first prize for being abysmal at day 6..in my experience.:)

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1 minute ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

One thing common on today's runs

Higher than average mslp

Azores high becoming dominant, abolishing any fierce cold attempt to a pea within the reliable time frame. 

Positive NAO looking FI :help:

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So if it's going to turn cold by mid month I would expect to see the models to start to show that in the latter part of the runs soon.,the ukmo 144 charts always seem very poor and rarely verify

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The ukmo takes first prize for being abysmal at day 6..in my experience.:)

UKMO is 2nd to ECM at t144 based over the past month

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4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

As predicted a few days ago by Ian F and others, for 2nd week of December i think.....so not really any shock. A mere interruption to the cold temps i think was predicted. Apologies if my memory is failing me though.

You're right and this is how I understood it too. Cold beginning of december, milder interludes 2nd week and then back to cold mid month. So far, so good?

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30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not sure about upgrades..the Ecm 12z becomes milder next week.

168_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850.png

192_mslp850.png

 
 
 
 
 
 

Yes, seems I might need to eat a slice of humble pie after responding to SS and his GFS op post, based on this one run, again showing things getting a tad milder. Then again will it be colder at the surface given high pressure hangs on overall? Inversions anyone? :DAs a coldie, I'm not panicking unless this becomes a trending trend and what's a few milder days in the scheme of things, aye. Besides the Atlantic train is still derailed even then (December 6th) for all, away from the far NW and nothing is nailed past then. :shok:

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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11 minutes ago, IDO said:

Nice to see the ECM has ditched its 0z output which is no surprise as again it was over doing the UK heights.

At D7 the ECM and GEFS mean:  ECH1-168.gifgensnh-21-1-168.png

Pretty good agreement though poor for cold as it is about the worst case scenario (at our latitude) in the whole NH, if cold is your cup of tea!

Still no change re two weeks time for anything notable, yes the 06z giveth as it is prone to, but not worth the time of day after D7. ECM is now back on track after blowing up the UK high for a few runs, new improved well I am not convinced yet. All just average December stuff forecast, a bit of this and that; no golden ticket for cold and snow yet.

>Heights well into the pole

>PV disrupted to the Siberian side

Yeah just an average December.

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