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Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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12z GEFS already looking good increased amplification over the eastern seaboard with better ridging into the pole from the pacific aswell. PV looks to be shunted further east.

 

12z gensnh-21-1-192.png  6zgensnh-21-1-204.png

 

 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Did this new thread come with a free dose of PROZAC for all who venture within?

SEEMS A lot of upbeat entries tonight, I'm off to B&Q to get a hammer and some nails  as I'm going to nail some of these down firm..

Some good stuff going on down the road, one hopes by the postings tonight.

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Like I said in the last thread- 

Get rid of the block, troughing into europe, allow new heights to build to the northwest 

gfsnh-0-348.png

The GFS is starting to get the idea now.

Not quite there... but getting there...

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Just now, WeatherGuru2012 said:

Your mild bias. 

This is still a while off considering the unreliable models atm. But when its cold showing we are told to take caution. Fair enough point, but its same for your charts you have posted, as it seems like your more confident for that to materialise.

Ahhh... but that could well be the route to proper cold...

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A nice wintry end to the Gfs 12z op run, it would be great if we are talking about deeper cold & snow mid Dec in the run up to christmas wouldn't it!:cold-emoji::D

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo (1).png

hgt500-1000.png

ukmintemp.png

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

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3 minutes ago, WeatherGuru2012 said:

Your mild bias. 

This is still a while off considering the unreliable models atm. But when its cold showing we are told to take caution. Fair enough point, but its same for your charts you have posted, as it seems like your more confident for that to materialise.

 

Yep, I wondered the same but to be fair to Summer Sun he has now added the following "Whether it does turn milder for a time remains to be seen". Moving on...... :friends:

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Just a quick question... Do the models factor in the recent eruption of popocatepetl in Mexico? as I remember reading that volcanic eruptions can cause a shift in winter weather somehow... or is this something that I made up???... sorry if off topic but if its something the models don't see/factor in then it could lead to a surprise further down the line.

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21 minutes ago, WeatherGuru2012 said:

Your mild bias. 

This is still a while off considering the unreliable models atm. But when its cold showing we are told to take caution. Fair enough point, but its same for your charts you have posted, as it seems like your more confident for that to materialise.

Probably because that is the UK Default pattern,in fairness to SS He does post cold charts when they appear.

I wish people would not jump on people because they have a different weather preference

C.S

Edited by cheshire snow
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7 minutes ago, ryanoroo said:

Just a quick question... Do the models factor in the recent eruption of popocatepetl in Mexico? as I remember reading that volcanic eruptions can cause a shift in winter weather somehow... or is this something that I made up???... sorry if off topic but if its something the models don't see/factor in then it could lead to a surprise further down the line.

Being on such a small localised scale, I don't think it would effect our side of the world. (Thinking back to latest Iceland Eruption). Would cause some localised changes in weather possibly, decreased temps etc. And anyway I assume models wouldn't take into account factors like that anyway.

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6 minutes ago, ryanoroo said:

Just a quick question... Do the models factor in the recent eruption of popocatepetl in Mexico? as I remember reading that volcanic eruptions can cause a shift in winter weather somehow... or is this something that I made up???... sorry if off topic but if its something the models don't see/factor in then it could lead to a surprise further down the line.

No, they won't. And I'm not sure how strong the eruption of Popocatepetl (whose name I love by the way) is but it would have to inject particulates into the stratosphere to have a major effect. The last to do so was Mount Pinatubo back in 1991 which caused 0.5 degree C drops in global temperatures over the next two years.

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The GEFS 12z mean looks generally settled / anticyclonic for the next 10 days or so, thereafter the high sinks south with the atlantic spilling over the top across the north with high pressure lasting longest in the south.

21_72_500mb.png

21_120_500mb.png

21_216_500mb.png

21_312_500mb.png

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21_360_500mb.png

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10 minutes ago, ryanoroo said:

Just a quick question... Do the models factor in the recent eruption of popocatepetl in Mexico? as I remember reading that volcanic eruptions can cause a shift in winter weather somehow... or is this something that I made up???... sorry if off topic but if its something the models don't see/factor in then it could lead to a surprise further down the line.

No, models will not factor in any volcanic activity. It needs a very big eruption into the stratosphere to impact weather and there is a time lag on it anyway. What VEI was the Mexico one?

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I've decided to not have another meltdown after this mornings tantrum! The GFS 12hrs is an improvement on the 06hrs as the Pacific ridge is better placed and we see the PV split up. However any interest is past day ten so best bear that in mind.

Unfortunately its going to be difficult to avoid a spell of milder conditions before then as the upstream trough is just too flat and then the added complication is that parcel of low heights, that greenish blob which you can see running nw which then attaches itself to the trough pulling the energy over the top. Theres simply not enough if any trough disruption to that troughing so unless theres some miracle backtrack then after the drier colder snap its likely to turn milder.

Then after that we need to sit and hope that we can remove the Euro slug high  which requires changes upstream and that build of pressure to the north.

I certainly hope that we'll see the end of the Euro slug because its threatening yet another disastrous start to the skiing season, and after last Christmas the resorts will be praying that theres no repeat of that.

 

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31 minutes ago, WeatherGuru2012 said:

Your mild bias. 

This is still a while off considering the unreliable models atm. But when its cold showing we are told to take caution. Fair enough point, but its same for your charts you have posted, as it seems like your more confident for that to materialise.

 
 

If you'd quoted my original post you would have found I had edited it well before you posted

GFS high res also shows it slowly turning milder next week too especially so for western and southern areas

120-778UK.GIF?30-12144-778UK.GIF?30-12168-778UK.GIF?30-12

192-778UK.GIF?30-12216-778UK.GIF?30-12240-778UK.GIF?30-12

Anyway moving on to ECM...

 

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If it wasn't for the ECM 00z run having managed to hold the high in place despite that parcel of low heights running up the west side early next week and a few GEFS continuing to try the undercut route (amazingly enough), I'd now be a lot more convinced of a cold-mild-cold sequence for the next fortnight (once such cycle across the whole period, I should add).

Very tricky if you're submitting a punt at the mean CET for December this evening! :unknw:

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So are we done with sun spots and solar flares for now?  I was a bit worried that I had wondered into the astronomy thread earlier today!

Stewfox will have a field day later on with all the dramatics going on in this thread over the last 24 hours methinks!

So eyes down for the ECM after a semi promising GFS run.  The building blocks are in place but more runs are needed!

Will we see 1962 revisited?!  I think that is enough clichés for one post.....

 

EDIT

On a serious note I feel that we are on course for a brief Atlantic 'warm up' next week before we start to see a cooling off and the possibility of some proper cold weather in time for Christmas as now being hinted at on the long range ensembles.

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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I see the GEFS 6-10 anomaly dabbles with amplifying the Pacific ridge NE, thus some quite marked CAA into NW Canada and similarly the UK HP to ridge NW into Iceland. Might cause some kerfuffle on the surface orientation of the HP but in any case it does quickly disperse itself of this idea and reverts to a lobe of the vortex over N. Canada and a pretty zonal Atlantic. Although still a hint of a ridge to the north but no anomaly. Streuth I nearly wrote no cigar then ...the signs are not good.

 

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_39.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_65.png

Edited by knocker
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The 12z gefs are not as encouraging as the 06z suite. less routes to mid month cold onset and more likely the final third of the month as per the monthly and glosea

the 18z could swing back. all we are doing is establishing the size of the envelope and whether its wet, damp, white or just grey and boring !

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The met office are predicting 

'more settled weather is likely to return as high pressure builds in for the second half of December, and re-establishes more widely across the UK'. 

Some of the respected posters on here are suggesting the high will be North/North East of us in one form or other possibly proving colder weather. 

Hopefully FI charts will go the way of the later and not the former. 

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 12z gefs are not as encouraging as the 06z suite. less routes to mid month cold onset and more likely the final third of the month as per the monthly and glosea

 

Agreed, the gefs 12z becomes flatter compared to the 6z which was more amplified with better potential for arctic incursions, still, ensembles are fickle things and we now wipe the slate clean in anticipation of the next run (s).:) 

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Hmm

ECH1-144.GIF?30-0   UN144-21.GIF?30-18

I wonder whether we are seeing a quicker breakdown of the UK high with the ridge splitting with warm air advection pushing towards Greenland and the jet cutting underneath and riding over the top of a declining Euro high. It could be shorter term pain and longer term gain if the pattern flattens underneath a weak area of heights to our north/north west.

All conjecture as the day 6 modelling resembles a shotgun blast of random solutions.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 12z gefs are not as encouraging as the 06z suite. less routes to mid month cold onset and more likely the final third of the month as per the monthly and glosea

the 18z could swing back. all we are doing is establishing the size of the envelope and whether its wet, damp, white or just grey and boring !

Yes, I did think we'd get some better GEFS charts but it's still too early, it wasn't looking like mid month before a change "could" begin, that may be a fair few days beyond that before the cold would hit us....It's not even guaranteed but will stay confident until the Pros say otherwise.

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2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Hmm

ECH1-144.GIF?30-0   UN144-21.GIF?30-18

I wonder whether we are seeing a quicker breakdown of the UK with the ridge splitting with warm air advection pushing towards Greenland and the jet cutting underneath and riding over the top of a declining Euro high. It could be shorter term pain and longer term gain if the pattern flattens underneath a weak area of heights to our north/north west.

All conjecture as the day 6 modelling resembles a shotgun blast of random solutions.

Yea and nearly all the PV  pushed east were we want it...  siberia

ECH1-144 (2).gif

Edited by booferking
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