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Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

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12 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

 

although still baffled by talk of greenland heights into december as all i can see is further on sinking of heights so far,

 

Greenland heights aren't expected until after mid month, that's why. Whatever UKMO and GFS are showing out to T+144 is pretty irrelevant at the moment. It's post T+240 that's important with hopefully a growing signal for Greenland heights in the GEFS

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So it is just one op run and the models are all over the place, but surprised there isn't more interest in UKMO this afternoon?

Probably a good job it doesn't go out to 192/216 as far as expectations go though because it could well show a stonking chart with Northern blocking building to our NW and split hemisphere.

Can't wait to see if ECM follows.

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4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Greenland heights aren't expected until after mid month, that's why. Whatever UKMO and GFS are showing out to T+144 is pretty irrelevant at the moment. It's post T+240 that's important with hopefully a growing signal for Greenland heights in the GEFS

Fine, but how do you get to T240 without going through T144 first?

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Looking at next week it starts cold then gradually turns milder from the west with temps getting into double figures for the south and west which is something we haven't seen in a while - still cold in Scotland as one would expect this time of year

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

Whether it does turn milder for a time remains to be seen

 

Edited by Summer Sun

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Fine, but how do you get to T240 without going through T144 first?

By using a delorean

But I think the main point is that beyond 120 there is no real point of using individual operation runs, as the surface conditions can change from run to run or at least that how I see it.

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More and more of a blocked pattern holding firm from GFS Op in the more reliable time-frames. No screamingly cold charts but as we would expect with this type of set up the interest will be pre 144 and not out in FI.

The Low in the Atlantic makes pretty much zero eastward progress between 96 and 180 barring a few shortwaves being thrown out, so the usual Zonal flow is no doubt on the back burner.

And with such a pattern potential for some heights to build in a favourable position to pull some cold our way are higher than normal.

(edit, im on about the charts that might actually verify ,lol, though 12Z FI does highlight the potential)

Edited by chris55
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6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Fine, but how do you get to T240 without going through T144 first?

Indeed and if we are to get good heights over Greenland we have an awful lot of work to do from this chart:

GFSOPNH12_240_1.png

The PV however is fragmented but the pieces need to fall in the right place... if they don't it will be tough to get that Greenland high.

A lot can change though in that time though and it is still possible... we may just have to endure a few mild winter days first

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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12z throwing up interest.

gfsnh-0-300.png?12

6z for the near the same time

gfsnh-0-336.png?6

Yikes.

 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Just now, frosty ground said:

By using a delorean

But I think the main point is that beyond 120 there is no real point of using individual operation runs, as the surface conditions can change from run to run or at least that how I see it.

Yes I think I understand what was meant, don't take individual runs at 144 as a measure of what we may get mid month. Fine with that.

But it read like what the models show at 144 is irrelevant to what they will show at 240 and to throw out the more reliable mid term signals in favour of the less reliable long term signals.

Clearly developments in the mid term will be hugely influential on what we see develop in FI

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Greenland heights aren't expected until after mid month, that's why. Whatever UKMO and GFS are showing out to T+144 is pretty irrelevant at the moment. It's post T+240 that's important with hopefully a growing signal for Greenland heights in the GEFS

Why is it always T+240?

Bit like the other half finally cleaning the cooker,always T+240

Looking at the 6z with my untrained eye,i can't see anything to get exited about,quite the opposite in fact.Strong jet with dart board lows lined up to hit us.

Of course,that's all set to change post T+240:cold: well,one can dream.:)

 

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To be honest, back end of GFS I don't think I have ever seen such a lack of PV

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4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

12z throwing up interest.

gfsnh-0-300.png?12

 

PV is looking extremely weak again, great looking chart.  This could well manifest itself a few days earlier too.

I have a feeling the exitement is going to build in here over the coming days, hopefully the back end of the ECM starts showing potential too over the next few days.

Edited by Ali1977
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GFS and GEM showing something better going forward but given it's D10 the usual cautions apply

gemnh-0-240.pnggfsnh-0-240.png

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Not a bad NH profile

GFSOPNH12_324_1.png

Let's see what the ENS show. :D

 

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Are we starting to see the HLB been picked up from the gfs that has been predicted by lrfs for mid month onwards. Expect some juicy runs and upgrades in more reliable time frame im thinking. The ensembles for gefs will be interesting now judging how they have been trending call for second week of dec 

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Even with a three way split PV at the end the GFS always seems to be able to fire up the jet

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1 minute ago, WeatherGuru2012 said:

Are we starting to see the HLB been picked up from the gfs that has been predicted by lrfs for mid month onwards. Expect some juicy runs and upgrades in more reliable time frame im thinking. The ensembles for gefs will be interesting now judging how they have been trending call for second week of dec 

We have been for the past few days. Just everyone focuses way too hard on the OP runs when the ensembles have the answers.

 

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2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Even with a three way split PV at the end the GFS always seems to be able to fire up the jet

Doesn't look that awful to me...

gfsnh-5-300.png?12gfsnh-5-384.png?12

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How do you view the upper temps for the Ens in graph form on metiociel pls? 

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think I'd buy that...

h850t850eu.png

now that would be epic for the time of year.

 

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Much too early to call it a signal but a few GFS ensembles showing much better trough disruption through the mid range with heights extending through Iceland and into Greenland, one or two even get close to bringing in a NE flow.

Example below.

gensnh-16-1-144.pnggensnh-4-1-162.png

Something to watch given UKMO output and improved GFS.

Edited by Mucka
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