Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

[Frosty.]

Absolutely stunning extended GEFS 12z perturbations and a colder mean.

Some real humdingers put the uk in the freezer!

Edited December 4, 2016 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

pressure the key though SS, what I tend to look at, not bad around 1030 in FI, hate that yellow outlier though

[Mucka]

Certainly GFS Op hasn't really been representative of the ensembles for long term prospects and the 12 is probably the best for cold solutions for quite a while.

Just over 60% eventually find some decent blocking

Edited December 4, 2016 by Mucka

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Absolutely stunning extended GEFS 12z perturbations

Some real hum dingers put the uk in the freezer!

Thanks Frosty - my straw has been provided. Now, I'll bugger-off and clutch it!

[ITSY]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Absolutely stunning extended GEFS 12z perturbations

Some real hum dingers put the uk in the freezer!

My concern is the lack of operational/det/control support. ECM + GEM don't go far enough to see, ditto for UKMO. Trends are trends though....

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, ITSY said:

My concern is the lack of operational/det/control support. ECM + GEM don't go far enough to see, ditto for UKMO. Trends are trends though....

you sort of answered your own question!

more importantly, the ops become less and less reliable past day 6/7 to the point that at day 10 they are generally only 50% on the money with the heights 

i must have dreamt the past few gfs ops (and one para) that amplified late on.

[Sperrin]

What's the difference between the GFS and GEFS? Is the GEFS an updated version of the GFS? Cheers. 

[Frosty.]

32 minutes ago, ITSY said:

My concern is the lack of operational/det/control support. ECM + GEM don't go far enough to see, ditto for UKMO. Trends are trends though....

I would be more concerned if the extended ensembles were all mild mush like they were this time last year..I'm sure we will get some peachy cold low res operational output soon if support for a colder second half / last third of Dec grows..hopefully it will

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

6 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

What's the difference between the GFS and GEFS? Is the GEFS an updated version of the GFS? Cheers. 

It is my understanding that the GEFS are the ensembles including the gfs operational and control run. 

Edited December 4, 2016 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

What's the difference between the GFS and GEFS? Is the GEFS an updated version of the GFS? Cheers. 

GEFS is the GFS ensembles. You can view individual purbs and the control run and the mean of the suite. 

[Chris.R]

9 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

What's the difference between the GFS and GEFS? Is the GEFS an updated version of the GFS? Cheers. 

GEFS are the ensembles, whilst the GFS usually refers to the OP?   That's what I always thought. 

Edited December 4, 2016 by Chris.R

[booferking]

ECM 168hr not as good as the earlier run less heights further North and the split in vortex not as good, let see how the rest of it unfolds.

Edited December 4, 2016 by booferking

[chris55]

15 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

What's the difference between the GFS and GEFS? Is the GEFS an updated version of the GFS? Cheers. 

GEFS are the ensembles. GFS is referred to as the operational run, whereas GEFS is the entire suit of GFS data including the ensembles.

 

Edited December 4, 2016 by chris55

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

GEFS are the ensembles. GFS is refereed to as the operational run, whereas GEFS is the entire suit of GFS data including the ensembles (and I think that includes GEM ensemble data as well). 

 

The bit in brackets is wrong Chris 

the gem ens (often called the geps) is available on meteociel 

[Ali1977]

15 minutes ago, booferking said:

ECM 168hr not as good as the earlier run less heights further North and the split in vortex not as good, let see how the rest of it unfolds.

Going off potential changes shown further on in the GEFS I doubt we'll see too much that floats coldies boats in the ECM for a few days, poss WAA heading towards the U.K. and maybe North at 240 maybe but that's it.

more important is the extended EPS 

Edited December 4, 2016 by Ali1977

[chris55]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The bit in brackets is wrong Chris 

the gem ens (often called the geps) is available on meteociel 

Ok Nick, thanks for the correction, not quite sure where i got that from TBH. 

[Frosty.]

Temps could reach mid teens celsius in some eastern and southern areas from midweek, especially wed / fri looking at the Ecm 12z..but then it turns cooler during next weekend. The temps are only half the story though as swly winds will be fresh to strong at times and we will all see at least some rain.

So..chilly early with slight frosts and mist / fog  then much milder and more unsettled  before cooling down next weekend with high pressure building in mid week 2.

 

Edited December 4, 2016 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

Further to recent discussion about the GEFs here's the link to the NOAA site to read all about them for any one interested in more detailed information.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-ensemble-forecast-system-gefs

[booferking]

You could,nt make it up ECM Shows some amplification right at the end hope it is onto something but as always its in la la land.

Edited December 4, 2016 by booferking

[SMU]

Woeful runs today

GFS now has 10 runs reaching above average 60N zonal wind speeds - ( post 192 ) thats up 5 from yesterday

its rapidly going pete tong im afraid.

UKMO 144 is about the best chart today..

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Temps could reach mid teens celsius in some eastern and southern areas from midweek, especially wed / fri looking at the Ecm 12z..but then it turns cooler during next weekend. The temps are only half the story though as swly winds will be fresh to strong at times and we will all see at least some rain.

So..chilly early with slight frosts and mist / fog  then much milder and more unsettled  before cooling down next weekend with high pressure building in mid week 2.

Some nice temps progged there, Frosty...If it ain't cold enough to snow, then 15C sounds like the next best thing, to me - 4/5C with cold, sleety rain disnae float my boat!

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Some nice temps progged there, Frosty...If it ain't cold enough to snow, then 15C sounds like the next best thing, to me - 4/5C with cold, sleety rain disnae float my boat!

Agreed Ed, might get the BBQ out on Wed or friday

Some exceptionally mild air for the time of year.

Edited December 4, 2016 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

talking bout GEFS, 13 my favourite but unlucky!

Edited December 4, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[nick sussex]

A disappointing ECM run until day ten which showed an improving NH pattern but we've seen this before with day ten charts never managing to get any closer. Earlier the ECM backtracked from its 00hrs run with less made of the ridging from the north and more energy going ne.

Overall after a few frosty nights early on the next ten days barring some better trough disruption look generally mild with wettest conditions in the far north. The Euro slug high slowly weakens its grip. Unfortunately still no sign of any appreciable snow for the ski resorts and they will be praying for a change because this could turn into yet another terrible Christmas season following on from recent years.

 

 

[Singularity]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Woeful runs today

GFS now has 10 runs reaching above average 60N zonal wind speeds - ( post 192 ) thats up 5 from yesterday

its rapidly going pete tong im afraid.

UKMO 144 is about the best chart today..

If that's at 10 hPa or even 30 hPa it may not be of much concern as we look to have some strong ammunition coming along with which to fight it off for a good number of weeks. That being what I've been talking about for the past week.