Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

[Jeremy Shockey]

If we can get the jet heading a long way South ( a week before Christmas ) it could get very interesting !

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I am so glad it is the gem showing that day 10 chart and not the ecm

True the GEM is cat litter and should be demoted. Canada has many great things going for it but its weather model isn't upto much. As for the rest of tonights outputs its one of those situations where if the jet is being overdone at the later timeframes something possibly could develop but overall its yet another frustrating evening for coldies.

PS in an effort to be more festive I've decided to drop a happy pill and return with one of my paintjobs on the ECM to show what could happen with the odd tweek or three.

 

Edited December 2, 2016 by nick sussex

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

If we can get the jet heading a long way South ( a week before Christmas ) it could get very interesting !

Yes, deepest FI but let's hope it dosen't, could be flooding issues for quite a few areas, best if the jet is much further north, with lows tracking nearer Iceland, keeps the flooding away, do not want water in peoples houses for Xmas again

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

True the GEM is cat litter and should be demoted. Canada has many great things going for it but its weather model isn't upto much. As for the rest of tonights outputs its one of those situations where if the jet is being overdone at the later timeframes something possibly could develop but overall its yet another frustrating evening for coldies.

 

Hi nick, not sure what you mean there, the jet seems to be heading way south in the later time frames of the GFS and hinted at on the ECM. That's a good sign, is it not?

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

True the GEM is cat litter and should be demoted. Canada has many great things going for it but its weather model isn't upto much. As for the rest of tonights outputs its one of those situations where if the jet is being overdone at the later timeframes something possibly could develop but overall its yet another frustrating evening for coldies.

PS in an effort to be more festive I've decided to drop a happy pill and return with one of my paintjobs on the ECM to show what could happen with the odd tweek or three.

 

Lol. We know the ecm day 10 will look different come the time but lets hope the little finger of heights to the east of Iceland is a trend setter

[Man With Beard]

35 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Surprisingly, there's very little mild on the Ecm 12z, it starts chilly and ends chilly with some average / mildish in the middle but as Gavin said, it becomes increasingly unsettled after a fine weekend and early next week..no blowtorch though!

Indeed, milder spell just 4 days really. At this time of year, a pretty direct hit from the SW is needed to keep it very mild for too long, so good chance the really mild stuff will end up being even shorter-lived.

[nick sussex]

Just now, bobbydog said:

Hi nick, not sure what you mean there, the jet seems to be heading way south in the later time frames of the GFS and hinted at on the ECM. That's a good sign, is it not?

Yes if it was within T240hrs and not much later. Of course the jet heading south would be a good sign but I'd urge people to ignore the fancy set ups the GFS sticks on the end of either its op or ensembles.

If I can give a little advice to newer members, if you stick to just max T240hrs on the ops you're less likely to be put through the mill and suffer nervous exhaustion by the end of the winter.

 

[bobbydog]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes if it was within T240hrs and not much later. Of course the jet heading south would be a good sign but I'd urge people to ignore the fancy set ups the GFS sticks on the end of either its op or ensembles.

If I can give a little advice to newer members, if you stick to just max T240hrs on the ops you're less likely to be put through the mill and suffer nervous exhaustion by the end of the winter.

 

Oh I agree nick, it was the bit where you said that if jet was being overdone we could be looking at something better. Whereas I was suggesting that if it was right, (unreliable at that range I know) rather than overdone, then that would be the route to something better.

Anyway it's pointless us waffling on about the details of distant output! 

[nick sussex]

As promised my ECM paintjob. Theres often a misconception that we need a strong block initially to deliver cold, this isn't always the case.

The ECM at T240hrs is a little better than my initial rather miserable post might have suggested, as you can see you've got that weak high circled over Iceland and that rather ominous looking low to the west. You'll note that the low is beginning to develop a shortwave on its base, for newer members this is a sign that it wants to take some of its lets say energy se'wards rather than directly east or ne.

Lets say for arguments sake that the low to the west does indeed disrupt and send that energy se'wards you'll effectively have your more stable cut off high at the same time much depends on the movement of the PV. If that heads more nw then you can get from that on face value not great chart to something more interesting. More likely high pressure angled ne/sw towards Scandi.

We could still do with a stronger high near Iceland and that low digging a bit further south. Whether any of the ECM ensembles follow the op and do deliver something more interesting we'll see in about half an hour.

 

 

[Tonyinhampshire]

On 30/11/2016 at 16:33, Ali1977 said:

This looks good, WAA holding near Newfoundland, Low to the West of it is tilting - expect a block to form in FI especially if the WAA can link with heights at the Pole.

 

AND THERE SHE COMES!!!  

Another upgrade in GEFS in FI will be good, I think it'll happen too.

I would like to ask a general question about weather trends and models, etc. Is there any truth in any correlation between weather patterns and Astrology and even numerology, for example, do the planets affect weather patterns or has a link been made between cold winters / hot summers and numbers, such as cycles of years, say a cold winter every so many Years. I would be keen to know. thanks

[karlos1983]

Sorry but I really do think some need to get a grip. So we've had a couple of down beat updates over the past 24-48 hours, but let's put things into perspective! 

1) it's December 2nd I.e. Winter has quite literally just started.

2) blocking signal still very much remains

3) whilst a blocking signal still remains we are in a good place!

4) the strat and trop PV are in bits compared to 12 months ago.

5) we are not basked in south westerlies and raging gales with relentless rain.

6) opportunities most certainly still exist on the below foreseeable ensembles 

I'm off to the fridge for a beer 

Edited December 2, 2016 by karlos1983

[Ali1977]

EPS must be due out soon, hopefully like the FI on the GEFS we start seeing some blocked runs appearing now. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Smartie said:

Don't think I've ever posted in the model discussion thread in all my years of being a member of this forum but this post bugs me, especially the bit I've highlighted, as far as I'm concerned I'm glad some members post on here with a glass half full type of attitude, especially during these trying times when the weather models are poor for cold. I take it Crewe that you'd rather everyone posted with a depressing glass half empty attitude all the time, personally that would make this thread a miserable place to visit!

No, I'd rather we took the output for what it is rather than leading less learned individuals astray. The moment the modelling takes on a more positive facet I'll be the first one to cheer but when I'm logging on here and looking at blatant +NAO charts with comments underneath along the lines of 'well this is how 1962 started' and 'well if HP could just be 1000 miles further west we'd be in business' and 'the Metoffice long ranger says a chance of cold so I'll take that to mean it's going to get cold' etc etc...well, you get the idea. Add to that the same tired cliches that surface every year and you get my drift.

It's not negativity or pessimism, it's realism.

[Summer Sun]

This evening's ECM ens shows a southwesterly flow most of next week before swinging around to a westerly through the weekend and into the following week

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No, I'd rather we took the output for what it is rather than leading less learned individuals astray. The moment the modelling takes on a more positive facet I'll be the first one to cheer but when I'm logging on here and looking at blatant +NAO charts with comments underneath along the lines of 'well this is how 1962 started' and 'well if HP could just be 1000 miles further west we'd be in business' and 'the Metoffice long ranger says a chance of cold so I'll take that to mean it's going to get cold' etc etc...well, you get the idea. Add to that the same tired cliches that surface every year and you get my drift.

It's not negativity or pessimism, it's realism.

I get your point, CC...But, be you pessimistic, optimistic or realistic, there are now a little more than 881/8 days of winter left. Yes, that is 881/8!

[Singularity]

ECM 12z raises one eyebrow very slightly at day 10 as that ridge by Iceland is about where the decaying stratospheric ridge looks to be headed around that time.

Not sure if such a direct connection is really likely to occur but it would help to dry and disrupt any troughs plus encourage any tropical-led height rises in our vicinity to reach higher latitudes than would otherwise be the case.

Just musing a possibility because there are plenty of posts already summarising the output to day 10 or 16. Speaking of which - a good summary should technically include an uncertainty clause at the end like 'but things could well turn out differently', but of course it would a bit repetitive in here if everyone did that.

For my part though, I find it more entertaining to explore ways in which the patterns might trend away from what the models show at face value - but I expect many of you had figured that out about me already! Successes are less frequent than is desirable, but when they come, the sense of triumph is well worth the wait .

[karlos1983]

A lot of uncertainty that  starts in the NE USA at 120 that manifests into a lot of uncertainty in the North Atlantic by the end of the run. 

nicely shown on the GIF which I love by the way now available on meteociel 

Same can be said for the N Pacific 

Edited December 2, 2016 by karlos1983

[stewfox]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I'm really not understanding this 'nicey nicey, let's be optimistic stance' in here from some members. Blind faith comes to mind. There is absolutely nothing wrong with members expressing their concerns over what they see within the NWP and should not be made to feel like Victor Meldrew for putting their concerns out there. If anything, it's the constant upbeat in the face of adversity attitude that is starting to grate on me.

Let's look at the facts, despite having had favourable background drivers, we have somehow managed to so far escape any meaningful deep cold (uppers below -5)....these drivers now look to subside somewhat (more especially stratospherically where at one point it looked as we would see a SSW). The NWP is shocking and we're now reduced to trying to decipher the smallest of signals in the extended range of the ensembles. It isn't great at the minute, and let's not sugar coat that.

BUT it is only the 2nd December and so we have plenty of time for a change around to occur. I'm hoping we see strong signs of this sooner rather than later.

-8c at 7am the other day my car would disagree . November in the top 3rd for cold in last 350 years (CET).

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, stewfox said:

-8c at 7am the other day my car would disagree . November in the top 3rd for cold in last 350 years (CET).

 

There is a difference between deep cold upper air (supportive of a vast array of winter weather types e.g snow) and cold surface air. What we have seen has been mostly the latter...as I'm sure you're well aware.

[carboncowboy75]

interesting 

[Frosty.]

Well I don't think the models are as poor for cold as yesterday, there is a little potential in the extended Gefs 12z for a scandi high and very cold easterly airflow by or just beyond mid Dec. and for cold high over the uk too..I posted the charts a few pages back..there is also a hint of retrogression leading to a bitterly cold NEly..hoping support strengthens!

Edited December 2, 2016 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

Pretty sure that the cluster on the spread ECM day 10 is the ridge - the spread uppers seem to match to our south. That could well lead to something unexpected  re a wedge as per singularity post above. However, the extended eps have a surge of low anomolys coming across the Atlantic at that locale same timescale. so who knows! 

In the 10/15 day timeframe, fairly consistent from the 00z with high anomoly establishing to our nw end week 2  and the high anomolys draining away from Europe - almost looks like a signature might follow where the ridge might push ne and introduce a nor'easter as the Russian trough backs sw across Europe (as the previous 46 dayer showed). Interesting to know from Matt or ian if any such indicative clusters exist at day 15. 

 

I see carbon cowboy has posted posted a tweet to illustrate -  don't tell Crewe though!

Edited December 2, 2016 by bluearmy

[stewfox]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

There is a difference between deep cold upper air (supportive of a vast array of winter weather types e.g snow) and cold surface air. What we have seen has been mostly the latter...as I'm sure you're well aware.

faux cold 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, stewfox said:

faux cold 

I'd certainly hesitate to call it faux cold, because in an absolute sense cold is cold. However with inversion or surface type cold you're always well aware that the slightest breeze can disrupt the layers of the air and mix that cold out very easily. 

[bobbydog]

22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No, I'd rather we took the output for what it is rather than leading less learned individuals astray. The moment the modelling takes on a more positive facet I'll be the first one to cheer but when I'm logging on here and looking at blatant +NAO charts with comments underneath along the lines of 'well this is how 1962 started' and 'well if HP could just be 1000 miles further west we'd be in business' and 'the Metoffice long ranger says a chance of cold so I'll take that to mean it's going to get cold' etc etc...well, you get the idea. Add to that the same tired cliches that surface every year and you get my drift.

It's not negativity or pessimism, it's realism.

Like I said earlier, it works both ways. "Mild zonal for the forseeable" "raging atlantic" crop up when it's not actually the case, misleading "less learned individuals". As us more seasoned members know, whatever the models are showing, is often subject to sudden dramatic change (Not necessarily for the better as the famous 'failed easterly' proved) you can't claim that optimistic posts are "nicey nicey" and then say that pessimistic posts are "realistic". In fact, anyone is entitled to look for signs of encouragement where they do actually exist- and they do!

However, I do agree with the cliché thing though- "rinse and repeat" and "smelling the coffee" should be put in the swear filter!!!