Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Week 3 will be missing .........

Is that a joke? 

[warrenb]

GFS and no change at 6 hours

[Seasonality]

 

[Frosty.]

The extended Gefs 6z looks either mild / average but with a few that are more interesting for coldies but in the outer limits @ T+300 and something hours..cloud cuckoo land

Edited December 1, 2016 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Week 3 will be missing .........

Take it your joking,   surely they would have a backup plan or could just use the data from where it cut out, input it and re-run with end week 2 data as a starting point (these computers I'm lead to believe have results in intervals of just a few minutes)

EDIT : and if by any unlikely chance you weren't joking then so would week 4 be missing.

Edited December 1, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

Week 4 will be there but only evenings and weekends ..........

[Frosty.]

in our current situation looking at a milder phase, I would settle for P11 in the run up to christmas on the Gefs 6z!

[Nick L]

EC46 output will definitely by affected by the outage, no word on how delayed we're talking yet though. Will report back if I hear further.

[phil nw.]

1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

Just one of those statistical quirks that Nov. '62 was also 5.5 for the CET.

...and both years saw Canadian warmings.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Nick L said:

EC46 output will definitely by affected by the outage, no word on how delayed we're talking yet though. Will report back if I hear further.

Thanks.

[bluearmy]

TBH, given the shenanigans in the Pacific, perhaps the ec46 being missed out until next mondays run wouldn't be such a bad thing - today's run could easily be skewed 

[warrenb]

GFS, something a little different maybe

[SMU]

The T90 NH chart appears to have so much potential-

if this was an archive chart you would assume the UK woukd be plunged into the depths of cold 2/3 days later

S

[Fozfoster]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The T90 NH chart appears to have so much potential-

if this was an archive chart you would assume the UK woukd be plunged into the depths of cold 2/3 days later

S

So why is it going wrong after t90 then steve?

[Weathizard]

Was just thinking the same Steve. Horribly bad luck for us really that we end up with a slug.

[festivalking]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The T90 NH chart appears to have so much potential-

if this was an archive chart you would assume the UK woukd be plunged into the depths of cold 2/3 days later

S

Definitely! Make a note under,  potential means sweet FA when it comes to wintry weather to the UK!

[blizzard81]

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

TBH, given the shenanigans in the Pacific, perhaps the ec46 being missed out until next mondays run wouldn't be such a bad thing - today's run could easily be skewed 

Is this shenanigans with regards to the tropical storm? I thought tropical storms were not out of the ordinary in the pacific?

[SMU]

17 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

So why is it going wrong after t90 then steve?

Just to much energy moving North East for a ridge to get into the pole -

168 is the next opportunity - again if theres enough poleward push

See where the 12 goes at that time with the little system creeping east -

S

 

Edited December 1, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Definitely! Make a note under,  potential means sweet FA when it comes to wintry weather to the UK!

Patience is required, background signals etc... There looks like being a milder phase but since this is the uk and not Siberia, that was always on the cards but second half or last third of Dec could be different in a cold way but no charts to back that up yet.

[snowbob]

One of these days a tropical storm may kickstart a British winter instead of hindering it all the time.

I remember last year great charts being hampered by a storm and having to wait what seemed like an eternity for models to get a handle on it.

 

[northwestsnow]

Gfs not making pretty viewing- have to laugh really, sounds like the shenanigans in the Pacific is going to be the latest in a long line of spoilers to derail uk cold.

Looking at day 7 its a long painful road to cold from there, stonking euro high and pos NAO setting up...

[warrenb]

Not giving up without a fight this high. Still foggy and frosty well into next week

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs not making pretty viewing- have to laugh really, sounds like the shenanigans in the Pacific is going to be the latest in a long line of spoilers to derail uk cold.

Looking at day 7 its a long painful road to cold from there, stonking euro high and pos NAO setting up...

Ouch..The only thing that makes this bearable is there is no snow to worry about thawing!

[tight isobar]

Complete split pv...and greeny high via the back door coming up ????

[Daniel*]

Certainly not without interest in the medium range..

Aleutian ridge penetrating further and more robust into the Arctic on this run, Additionally Euro heights seem more inclined to go polewards, with less vigor in the Atlantic.    

Edited December 1, 2016 by Changing Skies